Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Matchup 'M4$' Contests > 2016 Match4Cash Challenges
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

2016 Match4Cash Challenges Are You Up 4 It?

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-07-2016, 10:41 AM   #1
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,514
M4$16/2 Nov 12-Pook

Pook
Attached Images
 
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2016, 01:13 PM   #2
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,514
Mahoning Valley Race 7 3:02EST
Attached Images
     
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2016, 01:17 PM   #3
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,514
Mahoning Valley Race 7 3:02EST (2)
Attached Images
     
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2016, 01:18 PM   #4
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,514
Mahoning Valley Race 7 3:02EST (3)
Attached Images
     
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2016, 12:07 PM   #5
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,514
MVR7

I won't be around for scratches and odds so I will post now.

MVR has been killing me since it opened a few weeks ago. Yet TDN has been incredibly successful this year. Its the same horse colony basically. If you can put up with the chalk, chalk, chalk, bomb, chalk, chalk, chalk cycle that permeates these small tracks there are profits to be made. My MVR sample size is much smaller than TDN so I figure something should kick in sooner or later. So I will either continue to torture myself here ....or maybe?

Here goes. Derived a 22+/45+ pace from three matching earlies (3,5,11). The 11 has the FPLR but is coming from outside so I think it makes it contentious on the front end. If he wasn't so far out he could win as a dominant early. This is the main point of decision in this race for me. So OTE. My models on this track show that it is kind of a crap shoot at this distance as to what is predictive as far as corollaries go. If any of these early horses are scratched it will probably screw this all up.

Came up with 1,7,8,9,10 as the ones that can handle that pace from off. Of these the 8,9 should be best positioned to inherit the lead. Hopefully they are decent odds and that the race is not scratched up.

8,9 WIN
Good Luck
Pook

Last edited by The Pook; 11-12-2016 at 12:37 PM.
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2016, 03:28 PM   #6
Capcondo
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 506
MVR7:

MVR; Pook I like it.

I see lots of speed with the 3,5, and 11 like Pook. Also, the 8 and 10 will be close. I'm in the OTE camp. The horse I land on is the 9. His only race on the dirt he won against a slow pace. But, if I go 7 lines back, he showed a move against a 22.1 at WO.

The 9 is my choice to win.
__________________
Tim

Don't look back. You're not going that way.
Capcondo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2016, 03:57 PM   #7
cigar
3-3-1 - 3-3-2
 
cigar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 261
mvr

lot of pace in this race 5 and 11 will cancel each other, if the 11 stumble and the 5 break loose race may be over.

Pace: 22.6 46.4
OTE

Contenders 5-7-8-9-10

I like the ex Woodbine horses, if the 8 run his race two back game over for this field. I expect 7, 8 and 10 close to the pace.

Win 7-8 - jumping off the 9 too low odds.

Good luck all
cigar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2016, 04:04 PM   #8
lostandwon
Grade 2
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 97
ID’d 2,3,5,11 as mostly E
The 11 is the dominant of them and is FPLR if 22.3 – 45.8 but can’t like the way outside post.

Looking for OTE
Projecting a slower hi 22 first fraction

The 8 has won against a 21.8 but looks a little inconsistent.

The 6 looks interesting in that if you go deep has moved hard against 22.6-8
He had a rough September. His last out he had a wide trip and got the lead. The horse that won isn’t here today so I think he can reverse the tandem the 7 won. It was a slower pace but off track.

Given his current 25/1 odds @ 2 MTP I’ll take a shot

Bet
Place 6
lostandwon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2016, 04:13 PM   #9
cigar
3-3-1 - 3-3-2
 
cigar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 261
Bad Break

Watched and bet the race, the 7 just missed, wished he had a break better. That racing folks. On to next week
cigar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2016, 04:19 PM   #10
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,514
Well a bomb was served from MVR but nobody including the server was able to catch it. You'd have to have seen the slowest Early horse going into the race surviving the pace pressure and hanging on. Hence $72.

Pook
Attached Images
 
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
M4$16/2 Standings The Pook 2016 Match4Cash Challenges 28 12-19-2016 06:14 PM
MC July 11/12 by The Pook The Pook 2015 Matchup Challenge 38 07-14-2015 02:58 PM
Matchup Challenge May 9/10 by The Pook The Pook 2015 Matchup Challenge 51 05-11-2015 11:46 AM
Matchup Challenge Mar 14/15 by The Pook The Pook 2015 Matchup Challenge 11 03-14-2015 09:27 PM
Punxsutawney Pook The Pook Matchup Discussion 6 02-06-2015 12:58 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:28 PM.