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06-01-2017, 03:24 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Belmont Race 9 Richie and Mark and Beard
I dedicate this to 3 men who I have been very fortunate to have learned from in my early development
These three guys loved Belmont Turf races. I have great memories watching these men. I dedicate this one to my main table pals for The Meadowlands especially Mark F. RIP Race 9 6/1/17 CL25000 8.0 Turf RC100 Purse 47000 3+ Top 5 TPR (line 1) 9, 4, 12,11, 6 Fulcrum Horse 11 POR EPR 77 Notes Horse 1 Neoclassic 4 for 36 - 4 for 30 on turf Sustained off 110 days only shows one other layoff, Running a very bad 153 TPR No line Horse 2 Roman Revival 4-20 No Turf record Presser Lines 4,5,6 project well from dirt sprints. However, since I have no turf lines to rate I have no line. Horse 3 Scratch Horse 4 Mobridge 4-18 all 4 wins appear from turf races Sustained. It is coming off an 117-day layoff but almost every line for this horse is after a layoff. I will rate off line 1, a (+) against an 83 POR Horse 5 Chunnel 3 for 36 Shows 1 win on the turf but it was more than ten races ago. Sustained No recent turf form 2 works since last race 25 days ago No line Horse 6 Unbridled Ocean 6 for 23 4-17 on the turf Sustained Big class dropper. but APV and CR are not good Comes back after a 29-day rest Line 1 is all I can do for this one It's a (+) against CL 40's Horse 7 Scratch Horse 8 Matador 3 for 22 2 for 5 on the turf. Sustained . If this horse can ever run back to line 7 it has a chance but since that win It has only beaten 5 horses form is a big issue always comes ff layoffs It show no success the last 6 times No line Horse 9 Powerful Instinct 6 for 52 6 for 44 S/D Sustained Comes off a 41-day layoff The 180 TPR matches its best ever. It's workout 5 days ago looks so/so I will rate offline 1 Horse 10 Midnight Notes Presser 8 for 49 8 for 42 S/D This one comes off a 179 layoff and a bad race But before that, it ran 6 + races out of 9 I will rate off pace line 2 Horse 11 No Texting Early 4 for 22 and 3 14 S/D Line 2 is a recent + paceline. Same distance class and surface. Comes back after 25-day freshening line 2 Horse 12 Hidden Vow 5 for 43 2- 30 S/D Sustained Claimed for 16 75 days ago at GP It was a winning effort I will rate off this line Laff of 75 days should be ok, It has run well off a 47-day layoff Line 2 is really good but its adjusted from a GP 7.5 turf line Readouts The 11 looks like it has a good early advantage I think the 12 will run something in the middle of the 183-169.5 let's call it a 175 TPR The 4 is solid at 176 .9 TPR and 98.2 LPR The 10 is also at 176.5 but off a layoff I think I will go with 4 10 for win I will include the 11 and 12 somehow in an exacta |
06-01-2017, 05:42 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I'll go 6-11 for a WAG
Mitch44 |
06-01-2017, 07:55 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
close
Mitch your 6 just missed,
I did not see the race. Actually, the top 5 finishers were very close Horse 1 wins at a nice $19.00 price I just thought it was a cut below and with the layoff, i looked elsewhere Here are some more screens |
06-02-2017, 11:48 AM | #4 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 7
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Belmont
I played Belmont all day yesterday. Layoff horses were winning all over the place. I went 0 fer on the day. I did notice, although it was late and part of my learning curve, that the early horses were struggling. Pressers seemed to be winning a lot. That 1 horse got me too.
Chad |
06-02-2017, 01:01 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
When I saw this race I only had about 25 minutes and players were having problems all day with downloading therefore I did this real quick using Bris PP. I bet only $1.00 on the # 6 because I had to and wasn't comfortable with the race.
The race had several unknown factors in it such as layoff horses, suspicious dropdowns ,declining form etc. The # 11 I was unsure of as he seemed to quit after about 6F, had I had RDSS I could of confirmed it by his consistent % Med and if so he'd be a toss. Just one advantage of using RDSS. He did fold up like a cheap suit thrown in the corner. I was surprised the # 12 ran as good as he did and like Bill I never did see the #1 as a contender. Mitch44 |
06-03-2017, 11:33 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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I was at the off-track that day and did not bet the race. The friend I was with liked the 1 but got going on another race and never got back to this race to bet it. I'm not an RDSS user.
What I saw looking at the race was a horse running against the easiest competition he faced in quite a while. The second race back was very good with sizzling internal fractions of 23 and 3 in the second fraction and 23 and 4 between the half and 6 furlong marker. The horse almost won the race. The 3rd race back the horse ran 23 and 3 between the half and 6 furlong marker quitting just a bit at the end in a longer race. I'm sure the RDSS dream race would look quite good for this horse. Visually, the horse doesn't look to make a big move but the internal fractions tell a different story. Food for thought. |
06-03-2017, 03:57 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
No there- there
Hello from Eugene Oregon
Hi Tim I entered line 2 and 3 for horse 1, This is not a knock on RDSS but based on the adjusted lines. Looking at the segmented screen The 1 shows nothing special. In F1 F2 or F3 Since Entropy uses no variants and the readouts are based on the dream race I ran the race in Entropy first. Then I will go to Thoromation. Here are everybody's rankings on the sort. I entered 2 lines for horses 1 and 12 and took out the worst of those two. I took out all except the top 4 and made sure to include the #1 EP/DV horse (#1) But the 1 horse makes the best 4 already with a 19 score. Afterward, I sent the top 4 horse Horse 1, 4, 6 and 12 to Thoromation. The alarm flag appears because there is a gap of more than 2 points difference in total energy Here is using the 1 adjust Here is using the 2 adjust The 1 and the 4 win the race with either adjustment. Your eyes and your buddy saw the 1 Good Skill Bill |
06-03-2017, 05:08 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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That's a lot of work with several different programs. Thanks for doing it.
Hope all is well.
__________________
Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way. |
06-03-2017, 06:57 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quote:
Sir "Jedi Master" Yes, I agreed with Capcondo that is a lot of work- up but IMHO, that was the "optimal way to use the Sartin Programs during that time period. Many did not go the extra steps that Bill V presented here in his work up. Regarding Entropy, it was of upmost importance to keep the #1 Rank EP/DV horse and to throw out the "one-move" horse. Entropy complemented Thoromation... But if you had some decent variants...."oh mannn... But it was indeed, a lot of data entry and manually...I believe Bradshaw came up with AODDs to help alleviate the data entry efforts.... Thanks again!! Bill V. |
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