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Old 12-19-2016, 02:25 PM   #1
Capcondo
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Turf Paradise

Interesting scenario this afternoon Mountain Standard Time.

Turf Paradise is the only thoroughbred track running.
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Old 12-19-2016, 02:32 PM   #2
Capcondo
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PARX, Mahoning Valley, and Portland Meadows are all cancelled.
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Old 12-19-2016, 07:07 PM   #3
dlivery
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How was the Turf Paradice Palace

Sometimes runs to form other time runs to who is not on the Lead and that is not how I am Handicapping a race
Who fights in the race os is the winner
Thanks for Reading

Like shooting Craps who is the next shooter
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Old 12-19-2016, 07:35 PM   #4
MikeB
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Turf Paradise attendance today: 844

Turf Paradise off-track handle today: $1.7 million.
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Old 12-20-2016, 01:12 AM   #5
MikeB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dlivery View Post
How was the Turf Paradice Palace
I "played" TuP today and didn't make a bet. Not a healthy card if you are allergic to chalk. Eight races and the highest win mutual was $8.
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Old 12-20-2016, 01:19 AM   #6
Tim Y
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeB View Post
I "played" TuP today and didn't make a bet. Not a healthy card if you are allergic to chalk. Eight races and the highest win mutual was $8.
Two fellows in the press lounge HIT every one of them with pick 3's today, without much total but they were happy.

YOU HAVE to find fields GREATER than 7 horses and venues that populate the mutuels with enough variation to make backing that track worthwhile.

Tampa Bay and Oaklawn are two winter venues that fit that bill to a "T."
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Old 12-20-2016, 10:40 AM   #7
Ted Craven
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I happened to be working Turf Paradise yesterday for software testing reasons (not betting). As a counterpoint to the argument of short fields = no value, I am studying some tracks suffering from this (e.g. AQU Winter, TUP) to see if profit is none the less available.

I have been trying to 'tune up' the new Rx rating I am working on for RDSS 2.1. Following is a Summary of the 7 thoroughbred races on yesterday's card. The method is simple: automated PSS = BLT/C (Best of Last 3 Comparable) - eliminate all but Top 4 Rx. Period - no paceline changes, essentially no tinkering. This is not necessarily optimum or recommended, but it IS a test of how close Rx is coming to an automated Contender factor (i.e. independent of paceline selection). Wager decisions should be made from there.

Note - that the BL/BL rank fared almost as well in this particular set of chalky short field races.

The Wager Decision process in this study was also simple: Bet Top 2 Rx to Win equally. For Exacta - bet Rx ranks 1,2 over 1,2,3,4. Thus, the better the rating factor is in migrating Win and Place horses to the upper ranks, the more hits.

Obviously there are valuable decisions to be made, races to be passed, etc, etc. But as shown in the screen captures, some with post-time final odds - you don't always know when the < EVEN odds favourite will win (losing money on a 2 horse win bet) and when it will come seconds or worse. Those decisions certainly should be made. OR - let 'er rip and bet it as it comes! I have seen some days at TUP and AQU Inner where the favourites or close-to dominate and pay similarly to yesterday at TUP.

Food for thought when chalky short-fields are the ONLY thoroughbreds running on the whole continent!

Betting Summary
7 races bet @ $4 each on 2 horses to Win (Top 2 Rx rank) = $28 bet, $33.80 returned = 21% ROI
7 races bet @ $6 on Exacta 12/1234 (Top 4 Rx ranks) = $42 bet, $64.00 returned = 52% ROI

Add in generous rebates on Win and Exacta pools for a good time at least vicariously escaping northern Winter on a slow Monday ...

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Excel Wager Decision Form: TUP.2016.Rx.WDF.xlsx

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continued ...

.
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-20-2016 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 12-20-2016, 10:45 AM   #8
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FWIW - in January I expect to release another round of testing versions of RDSS 2.1. While some folks are currently testing it (thank you!) - I feel better about opening it up more broadly if a few of the worst error messages and Bugs get fixed first. Anyone interested, just write me privately.

Let's see what's actually running today ...

Ted
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Old 12-20-2016, 10:56 AM   #9
Bill Lyster
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There are tracks that, like you mentioned, seem to pour out nothing but favorites, but anticipating those days can be tricky. Before this last Los Alamitos 8 day meet an astounding number of top 3 RX horses won, but in this last go round, it seemed like one horse per day would ruin the pick 4 at 20-30 to one, with no credentials at all.

Its just an observation, but it seems to me that tracks that have state run stake races are usually days of very low paying odds, when the best state bred horses that run in open competition run down the ladder to meet their claiming class brothers and sisters. Fair Grounds, some of the Florida races, Md and even NY and California tracks come to mind.
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Old 12-20-2016, 11:26 AM   #10
Bill V.
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Ties

Ted I did very well tracking RX at Del Mar Summer and Bing Crosby fall meets, The short SA fall meet and Los AL ( i passed this winter LRC meet)
I was very happy with testing RX but I missed handicapping.
I am currently back to using Phase 1 and the steps from PMTR
but now once I get my top 5 with ties TPR I use the RX to break ties
Along with the ML and lots of record keeping, things are going well.

About Turf Paradise I really should go check it out soon. I have never been there. I'm always in and out of Arizona since my company has a hub in Phoenix.

One of those moments in racing I never will for get,
I was still new to the methodology I just bet my two horses in some race from Turf Paradise. I hit the winner. It paid $98 for the $2 win bet I made.
I'm so happy but the guy sitting in front of me turns around and says
But did you have the exacta

Also when we were doing the test of RDSS to send our results to Doc
I also had a big winner, maybe like $40 to report, It was from Turf Paradise

Bill
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