Practice Race - FG Race 5 - 3/9

[Jeebs]

Hey everybody!

This was a race that I worked up yesterday. There were some valuable takeaways (both obvious and not-so-obvious) that I got out of this race (pre-race/post-mortem) and I wish to share them with our group. Before I get into that, I am interested in what others thought (if they handicapped/bet this race yesterday) or are thinking (if they will be handicapping this for the first time!) in regards to handicapping this race...

Here are the entries:


If you played this race yesterday, please don't spoil the race results. I'll leave this up for a bit and give time for others to chime in. Once we solicit some feedback, I'll go ahead and post my stuff.

Dig in!

[Bill V.]

No Offense Jeebs

But I'm not even going to attempt this one for win bets
Too many questions and unknowns


FG race 5 AL 40 N1-X 4 +

Horse 1. No turf form off 85 days. has 4 dirt wins . Question mark #1
Horse 2. No North American Pacelines out Question mark #2
Horse 3. No Turf form Question mark #3
Horse 4. Off 194 days, Sus Line 1 or 3 Question mark #4
Horse 5. SP Line 3 Excuse line 1 and 2 are 7.5 turf races line 3 is closer to today's distance
Horse 6. Off 145 days another question mark Sus I will rate off the last line
line 3 is better tpr but it looks like a aberrant line. Questionable horse # 6
Horse 7. Sus line 1
Horse 8. Presser I'm having issues going back to line 3 but its not really a (+) Neither is line 1 This horse has 3 wins, Question #7
Horse 9. No Turf Form Question mark # 8
Horse 10. Line 2 but its 211 days ago Excuse line 1 first try at FG this meet
first race back after 185 day layoff after its maiden win, yet another question mark.

There is way too much baggage. I'm sure there is some kind of lesson you want to share with this race, otherwise why post it ?, In truth I would just be guessing,

When I come across races like this as part of my pick 4's
cringe and go with the horses with recent plus or plus within a zero pace lines and hope for the best .
7 10 5 4 and maybe 6

[The Pook]

Looked at it yesterday Jeebs but was a pass for me.

Pook

[Mark]

RDSS2 is a fantastic handicapping tool for Turf races.
With the various Configuration settings you can handle most any situation.
1. Determine FPLR and if available establish projected pace: the 3 horse tandem from 2/17 over FG turf course and at distance. Projected pace: 24.2 - 49.3 - 1:13.5.
2. Confirm Running Styles and select POWER LINES in accordance with today's projected pace. ( I do not use DTV when handicapping although I do use ITV under normal circumstances. On Turf I note the spread in DTV listed on the Original screen and based upon a wide enough spread and multiple tracks, I will take my pacelines as select and move to a RDSS2 version with 100% DTV) that was the circumstance here.

Now 100% Configuration version:

Now evaluate the Segment and Energy for your winner and ITM horses.

[kpmats10]

1 – Coming off 90+ day layoff, but does show steady, consistent work pattern. 0-4 on turf. 4th highest class rating in the field, but 6th in class on turf with low EPS and uncompetitve TPR. Non contender. Run style - E
2 – first NA start after 120 day layoff, no useable line and earnings do not mandate this horse a contender. Cannot determine run style
3 – Horse has never not run a + or (+) race in 7 starts, but this is her turf debut for a low 1st time turf trainer, she’s a half to one turf runner out of 9 foals the dam has dropped, sire is a C+ turf sire and damsire is F turf sire. Don’t like the gaps in the works between Jan 26 and Feb 13. 5th in APV, 3rd in EPS and third in class, should be in the contender mix, but before I run this horse through the computer, I’m not thinking this is a serious threat to win. Run style - S
4 – Classy horse coming off a long layoff. Steady works for strong layoff trainer. Interesting how CB lost this horse for whatever reason. Has run well off a layoff previously. Contender. Run style - S
5 – 4th in APV, 2nd in EPS, 2nd in class to the 4 horse, but has the highest EPS on turf and highest class on turf. In razor sharp form, steps up in class from statebred to open off win, definite contender. Run style - P
6 – Another layoff horse for low percentage trainer. 2nd in turf APV and 5th in turf EPS and class. Competitive TPR. Perhaps marginal contender? Run style - S
7 – Has recent + race over this surface, 2nd in turf APV, 3rd in turf EPS, 3rd in class, very competitive TPR. Contender. Run style - P
8 – Non contender
9 – Non contender
10 – Beaten 4 lengths by the 8 in her last race, 4th highest turf class rating and EPS, but this could be due to the many maiden tries this horse needed. Non contender. Run style – E/P

3-4-5-6-7 are the contender mix.
Pacelines –
3 – Last line
4 – This is tricky because to get a + or (+) paceline, you have to go back to June of her three year old year in a straight 3YO race. I’ll use the last line, even though it’s a 0 race with no visible excuse. It was vs. elders and the horse was up close at the stretch call and finish. On the par time charts, this is a 5 level class drop between SAR and FG.
5 – Since the last two races were technically “sprints”, to get an accurate readout I’ll use the line 3 back despite that race being first off a long layoff.
6 – same paceline reasoning as the 4. I’ll use the last line but would go back to the July 9 race at AP, which is a +
7 – Last line

See readouts –
My top 2 are the 5 and 7

[Jeebs]

Step by step... inch by inch
Ok, so let's start. 4-7-6 are the top CR runners (ML of 3-1, 4-1 and 5-1 respectively).

Tandem markup...



Pacelines and Run Styles...

#1 - No line. 0-2 over surface and distance, and its BAL numbers don't scream "turf" to me. Off 95 days as well.
#2 - Foreign invader. Since we don't have "lines" that are projectable, we have to dissect the rest of the field. Under the right circumstances, this horse may end up being grouped into our wagering. However, you have to demand a price here.
#3 - Line 1. + dirt line. Why give 3 a line when I didn't give the 1 a line for the same scenario? Simple - Balance ratings in the Energy screen on Line 1 would fit a turf race better than the 1 and overall. We will plug in and see how this one matches on TE. Presser/162.1.
#4 - Line 3. Our top CR and ML favorite. You can either take a stand and follow FTL's layoff guideline or concede that this is the class here and find a line anyway. I choose the latter. Its most recent usable line (277 days ago) from BEL is consistent with its TE's overall. Strong late sticks in PMTR. Sustained/162.9.
#5 - Line 1. Even though its the oddball 7.5f turfer, it's a win close to today's class level. Late stick horse and strong Balance. Sustained Presser/161.0.
#6 - No line. Off a long layoff and no + races as of recent and off 145 days. Sustained runner.
#7 - Line 1. Part of tandem #1. Balance in the Energy screen is in the wheelhouse. Sustained/163.2.
#8 - Line 1. I went outside the box here because of its tandem with #7. Technically speaking, it doesn't have a + line until Line 7, however, what tipped me off here was that its TE last out was 162.9, only 0.3 points off #7. Not a big difference. The Bal readout in Energy shows a horse in and out of 4s and 6s... I decided with the unknowns in here to try and reverse the tandem. To reverse a tandem, you either find a better line or adjust the beaten lengths of the tandem horses to that of the tandem winner/best finisher. Line 3 would be a better line, but it grossly overrated this runner. I rely on commonsense and intuition and knew this horse wasn't that good. Since I can't adjust beaten lengths in RDSS, I settled on Line 1 for the reason being that if the line rated weak in the output, I would toss anyway. If it didn't, I would potentially have a price horse to play in my wagercapping tiers in a wide open affair. Sustained Presser/162.9.
#9 - No line. Dirt form and its lone turf race were uninspiring. 30-1 ML.
#10 - Line 2. Ran vs. the FPLR last out. I excused since it was a comeback race. Against a similar PoR last out 211 days ago, it won. Presser/162.6.

Energy screen hides: The #5 was last and corollaries failed the smell test. 7-4-8-10-3 are left standing.

PMTR/Segments: Since we don't have a confirmed speed left amongst our remaining horses, I relied on the TPR. The 7 and 10 at 173.5 and 173.0 have an edge over the chalk 4. At this point, I hid the 3, whose TE didn't quite match.

BL/BL...

[Jeebs]

If you had the #7 in your wagercapping tiers or contention, move to the head of the class!

My approach was a 3 horse dutch, leveraging the 7 at 3-1. The 8 was 52-1, and 3rd tier. I wanted to play but only what my opinion was worth. In this race, the 8 finished 4th. However, our 7 brought us home the bacon. We ignored the heavy favorite (off the board) and foreign invader (bang up 2nd) since we had other horses to focus on. If you were a supers player, 8 would have been a perfect fit.



I choose this race to post post-hoc because it demonstrates both 1) the power of tossing from a wager, short priced runners, especially off long layoffs, but most importantly, applying the tandem concept in handicapping. 8 did not reverse tandem on this day, but using the tandem concept tuned me in to a horse that appeared to have a chance to outrun its odds in a contentious, open race. It also demonstrates how important the Balance readout in the Energy screen is in determining suitability to today's race. 8 appeared suitable and it moved up my opinion.

The floor is open. Feel free to add your thoughts.

[Jeebs]

Meant to attach this before, sorry.