Match Up Query

[Charlie D]

Does the #1 move up positions and come out on top in the head to head with the #8 against a Pace of say 22. 6 - 45.8

Thanks in advance

[Bill V.]

Hi Charlie

using the tools I have ....!

I would say that the 1 would move up

Bill

[Charlie D]

Thanks Bill

Could you post the positions you think each horse will be in please

[Bill V.]

No Charlie
I can't
The reason why I think the 1 would match up and move up more than the
8 is because looking at the stretch position the 1 horse is right there
in both races The 8 seems want to be 3rd or 4th except for the mud line

[VoodooFan]

I would say that is a tough question without looking at the entire race and ALL the horses total pace performance.

There are questions that need to be asked.

1) Is the 8 "normally" a presser?

2) Is the 8 "normally" a presser that challenges for the lead?

2a) WHERE does he like to challenge for the lead if that is his character and usually at what position?

3) If so, what fractions does he like to challenge?

4) Are there "other" pressers positioning themselves as 2nd or pressing for the lead? How does he handle this situation?

5) Or does he like being "alone" pressing or chasing the leader?

6) How does he handle the lead or being in the lead?

7) What does he do when he overtakes the lead?

8) Is he "alone" when he does this or are there "other" horses right with him and HOW does he handle that, based on his past performance?

9) Is his "BREAK" position a factor or not, according to this horses PP's? How many horses does he have to pass to get his "preferred" 1st Call position and at what Fraction?

10) Is the race going to run "Early" or "Other-Than-Early"?

Questions I ask myself all the time, to get some pattern of "THIS" horse, "TODAY" in "TODAY'S race, because one has to ask himself, "the way the horse runs "TODAY", and how he "feels" TODAY(condition) and the types of competitors/characters/personalities he is facing TODAY may make what he did YESTERDAY useless and obsolete, TODAY.

Just some thoughts.

VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

Here you go Voodoofan

#1's PP first, #8's PP second

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

I would say that is a tough question without looking at the entire race and ALL the horses total pace performance.

There are questions that need to be asked.

1) Is the 8 "normally" a presser?

2) Is the 8 "normally" a presser that challenges for the lead?

2a) WHERE does he like to challenge for the lead if that is his character and usually at what position?

3) If so, what fractions does he like to challenge?

4) Are there "other" pressers positioning themselves as 2nd or pressing for the lead? How does he handle this situation?

5) Or does he like being "alone" pressing or chasing the leader?

6) How does he handle the lead or being in the lead?

7) What does he do when he overtakes the lead?

8) Is he "alone" when he does this or are there "other" horses right with him and HOW does he handle that, based on his past performance?

9) Is his "BREAK" position a factor or not, according to this horses PP's? How many horses does he have to pass to get his "preferred" 1st Call position and at what Fraction?

10) Is the race going to run "Early" or "Other-Than-Early"?

Questions I ask myself all the time, to get some pattern of "THIS" horse, "TODAY" in "TODAY'S race, because one has to ask himself, "the way the horse runs "TODAY", and how he "feels" TODAY(condition) and the types of competitors/characters/personalities he is facing TODAY may make what he did YESTERDAY useless and obsolete, TODAY.

Just some thoughts.

VoodooFan

Now here is a guy who has been doing his homework AND thinking about it, not just trying to get it done!

Every pace line you look at carries the characteristics of the “match ups” that were a part of that race. Without knowing what those characteristics were, it is difficult to assume the horse will react the same way in today’s race.

[VoodooFan]

"IF" these were the ONLY 2 horses on the track, a two horse race......

The 8 will get the lead.

He fought off a challenger in a 46 to win the 6 furlong portion before losing at 6 1/2 on March 16.

He fought for the lead from the 1st call to the end of the 6 furlong portion, winning that portion, before losing at 7 furlongs on March 28.

At a fast 21.4-45.1 he was 3rd only 2 to 2 1/2 lengths off the leader, demonstrating current condition and willingness to STILL expend energy early.


Now the 1 is mostly a sustained presser, like MatchUp 2 says, a presser that presses pressers, also with some sustained ability.

But TODAY, he will be a presser, based on this being a two horse matchup race ONLY with no other positional or character influences from other horses.

2 of the 3 times, when this horse gets in a 2nd position, he WILL go after the leader in the next call and try to take the lead.

For some horses, this works only if they get that position in the 1st call, others at other calls , and some, either combination of the two scenarios.

His last three races show decline and their is no additional supported evidence in his past performance that he can duplicate his January 11 performance at those fractional speeds.

Even at 1's BEST line, he is STILL 2nd 1 1/2 lengths off the leader, NOT PRESSING THE LEADER AT THE 1ST CALL OR GOING AFTER THE LEADER IN THE 1ST CALL MAKING THE LEADER EXPEND EXTRA ENERGY.

He will do so again, being 2nd.

That means the 8 can run SLOWER than the 22.3 and have enough to fight off the 1's 2nd call challenge for the lead.

NOWHERE does the 1 show he will fight, press or go for the lead at the lst call. Very important.

The 1's last three 1st calls : 10th-6 lengths off at a 22.1, 5th-2.5 lengths off at a 22.2, and 4th-1.5 lengths off at a 22.3, content to sit behind, even at
2nd position , not pushing the leader at that all important 1st call, the portion of the race where the most energy is spent, where later deceleration is affected and more importantly, the portion of the race where conservation of energy is most critical.

Also, the 59.2-112.2 portion of the 1's performance, getting that lead is a decline compared to his other two performances when he was 2nd, then getting the lead at the next call or closing in on the leader(s).

Compare THAT to the 8's March 16 and March 28 fractional performance.

That March 28 fractions and fighting on the 8 would give me more confidence in his ability, although I would downgrade that performance a tad because he got a boost coming out of a chute.

THE HAT said that 6 1/2 and 7 furlongs run faster than 6 at the 1st two calls, I think he said he added and extra fifth of a second to the 1st two calls because they are getting a boost coming out of a chute.

The 1 is going to break 1st, at the break call, but the 8 will pass him, since he is the only horse that he has to pass, and get the lead at a much slower time, giving him extra energy to fight off the 1 at the 2nd call and sustain his energy , at least, till the end of the 6 furlong portion of the race.

The 8 shows two races where when fighting, a willingness to sustain his lead at least to the 6 furlong portion.

Win , lose or draw, my bet would be a one horse bet on the 8, to go
wire-to-wire.

VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

Lets put this to bed




I had the #1 -#6 and #8 as the contenders

#6 On lead with #8 as maybe pressing or just sat in behind and the #1 behind these two.

I bet #6 and #8

The way the #8 ran does not help analysis , but I was interested to see if other Matchers saw the #1 moving up and being ahead of #6.




Contenders

Chart

[VoodooFan]

In hindsight, looks like the question was, who would challenge Froggy for the lead or does he have enough to fight off a challenger or can he go wire-to-wire?

Richie posted that THE HAT said Early means wire-to-wire without a challenge.

I guess that also means that if the Early horse's fighting ability and fractions is more than an edge against the nearest would-be challenger for the lead, THAT is not considered a challenge.

VoodooFan