4/18 Keeneland 8th 5.5f turf puzzler - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 04-18-2009, 03:02 AM

very interesting race: (before scratches analysis)

Basics: #11 (an E) has an 11 class rating; the next best is #5 (SP or S) with a 7.

If you take the best turf lines from these two and the rest of the field ignoring pace you get the 5 and 11 with separation in the BL to the next one.

If you Match the race, there are 5 or 6 Early horses 3 or 4 Early pressers, 2 pressers, two SP and 2 S types.

It looks to me like the earlies have to chase fractions of 22 and 44. This eliminates all but the 4 and 9, with the 9 possibly being an E/P. 4 needs an open lead and won't get it in this field. 9 has run historically one or just off the lead, but it looks like an OTE race to me. The 11 has been off 286 days and has never faced this stiff a pace. The 5 has faced this pace at the first fraction, runs from fifth or sixth and closed to win.

The 2, a presser, ran a tandem vs the 9 and this race had a marginally faster pace than the race I chose for the 5 (line 4). While the 5 shows more lengths gained and more horses passed than the 2, the 2 was moving from 3rd to 2nd without gaining lengths but this horse should benefit from all the earlies collapsing in front of him. With the size of this field it may get down to luck in finding the right hole wherever that is, so my Matchup horses are the 5 and 2. The ML on the 2 is 20/1 vs 3/1 on the 5; 4/1 on 9 and 5/2 on the huge Class horse the 11.

So Huge class or matchup. Either way the 5 is a bet. Any comments?

Thanks,

Bill

gandalf380 · 04-18-2009, 07:42 AM

I have to disagree. I think #4 Marina Ballerina can win this at a big price.

#4 to win
Trifecta box 4,5,7,11
Superfecta box 4,5,7,9,11

alydar_ David · 04-18-2009, 09:40 AM

Nice analysis, Bill.

I'm with both of you. #5 and #4 look like the win bets, although the race is very low on my confidence scale. Ergo, If I bet it all it will be for small money.

I'll throw #7 Lady Chace at 12-1 and #8 Classify at 10-1 into the exotic mix as well.

RichieP · 04-18-2009, 10:01 AM

I can't penalize the #10 running on the FG bog compared to the paved highways at GP and Med.

The 2 fastest first fractions(21.4 and 22.1)the #10 has faced in his pp's he showed extreme movement running OTE power moving the CD race to the lead at sc and then finishing well from 4th position 2 races back.

Earlies are dead meat and the #10 should be in ideal position sitting about 6th.

Coy Cat has a chance - 10/1 ml

Charlie D · 04-18-2009, 04:43 PM

Bill

Looking at your screen shot i think #9 can see off the other contenders, so the #9 would be my horse at 5/2 or above

Looking at Richie's post, the #10 is the danger to the #9

RichieP · 04-18-2009, 05:29 PM

Nice hits Aly,"380" and Bill L!!
exactas trifectas!

Great call dudes

Charlie D · 04-18-2009, 05:40 PM

Corking run by #4, saw off other E easily

Well done the #5 guys

gandalf380 · 04-18-2009, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Nice analysis, Bill.

I'm with both of you. #5 and #4 look like the win bets, although the race is very low on my confidence scale. Ergo, If I bet it all it will be for small money.

I'll throw #7 Lady Chace at 12-1 and #8 Classify at 10-1 into the exotic mix as well.

using your horses, one gets the exacta, the trifecta and the superfecta. Way to go.

04-18-2009, 05:29 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Nice hits Aly,"380" and Bill L!! exactas trifectas! Great call dudes Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

04-18-2009, 03:02 AM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	4/18 Keeneland 8th 5.5f turf puzzler very interesting race: (before scratches analysis) Basics: #11 (an E) has an 11 class rating; the next best is #5 (SP or S) with a 7. If you take the best turf lines from these two and the rest of the field ignoring pace you get the 5 and 11 with separation in the BL to the next one. If you Match the race, there are 5 or 6 Early horses 3 or 4 Early pressers, 2 pressers, two SP and 2 S types. It looks to me like the earlies have to chase fractions of 22 and 44. This eliminates all but the 4 and 9, with the 9 possibly being an E/P. 4 needs an open lead and won't get it in this field. 9 has run historically one or just off the lead, but it looks like an OTE race to me. The 11 has been off 286 days and has never faced this stiff a pace. The 5 has faced this pace at the first fraction, runs from fifth or sixth and closed to win. The 2, a presser, ran a tandem vs the 9 and this race had a marginally faster pace than the race I chose for the 5 (line 4). While the 5 shows more lengths gained and more horses passed than the 2, the 2 was moving from 3rd to 2nd without gaining lengths but this horse should benefit from all the earlies collapsing in front of him. With the size of this field it may get down to luck in finding the right hole wherever that is, so my Matchup horses are the 5 and 2. The ML on the 2 is 20/1 vs 3/1 on the 5; 4/1 on 9 and 5/2 on the huge Class horse the 11. So Huge class or matchup. Either way the 5 is a bet. Any comments? Thanks, Bill Attached Images

04-18-2009, 07:42 AM	#2
gandalf380 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: central islip ny Posts: 1,091	I have to disagree. I think #4 Marina Ballerina can win this at a big price. #4 to win Trifecta box 4,5,7,11 Superfecta box 4,5,7,9,11

04-18-2009, 09:40 AM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Nice analysis, Bill. I'm with both of you. #5 and #4 look like the win bets, although the race is very low on my confidence scale. Ergo, If I bet it all it will be for small money. I'll throw #7 Lady Chace at 12-1 and #8 Classify at 10-1 into the exotic mix as well.

04-18-2009, 10:01 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Meow I can't penalize the #10 running on the FG bog compared to the paved highways at GP and Med. The 2 fastest first fractions(21.4 and 22.1)the #10 has faced in his pp's he showed extreme movement running OTE power moving the CD race to the lead at sc and then finishing well from 4th position 2 races back. Earlies are dead meat and the #10 should be in ideal position sitting about 6th. Coy Cat has a chance - 10/1 ml __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

04-18-2009, 04:43 PM	#5
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Bill Looking at your screen shot i think #9 can see off the other contenders, so the #9 would be my horse at 5/2 or above Looking at Richie's post, the #10 is the danger to the #9 __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

04-18-2009, 05:40 PM	#7
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Corking run by #4, saw off other E easily Well done the #5 guys __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"