2023 Kentucky Derby - Pace and Cap

DanBoals · 05-01-2023, 05:58 PM

Some way too early thoughts.

I do not normally like west coast horses coming east to run, but Practical Move looks like a really good deal at 10-1 morning line.

Does anyone have any thoughts on Two Phil's? I have never handicapped Turfway Park but his big win there last out kind of makes him a troubling unknown. Rapidly improving 3 year olds are the bane of handicappers, there is no real way to tell what their upside is.

Tapit Trice is a good looking horse as is Verifying, but since they were only a neck apart at Keeneland, I am not sure I understand why one is 5-1 and the other is 15-1... both have great connections, so is a neck difference really worth a three times difference in odds?

Tim Y · 05-01-2023, 07:33 PM

Not ready to seriously comment YET, about the pace projection of this famous yearly contest, BUT, the post draw as today and the probables did not get poor posts.

I welcome various projections from the members here.....I will be back with an evaluation either late Thursday, or mid afternoon Friday, so come on join us with your own evaluations.

Ted Craven · 05-01-2023, 08:23 PM

I merged these 2 Kentucky Derby Threads started today.

Ted

Tim Y · 05-02-2023, 01:18 PM

At the old Derby List website, they held a contest each year for this spectacle, BUT it was not what you'd think: you had to predict the colt that would finish LAST...Many a year the "prize" (of being the one who did it) was not claimed at all because it is a tough thing to do.

Tim Y · 05-02-2023, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Some way too early thoughts.

Does anyone have any thoughts on Two Phil's? I have never handicapped Turfway Park but his big win there last out kind of makes him a troubling unknown. Rapidly improving 3 year olds are the bane of handicappers, there is no real way to tell what their upside is.

Animal Kingdom's last KD prep ws there

lone speed · 05-04-2023, 05:23 AM

Rich Strike's last prep was at the same track too and on Synthetic surface

But my main curiosity was the designated speed rating off its maiden claiming race at Churchill race track where it won by 17 lengths drawing away.

Bris race rating service gave Rich Strike a 85???

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Tim Y · 05-04-2023, 12:28 PM

I doubt 22 will draw in, but it's LONE paceline would make it a contender

Tim Y · 05-04-2023, 01:43 PM

SA Derby winner OUT (Practical Move)and Cyclone Mischief IN...That is a bit of a shocker

Tim Y · 05-04-2023, 08:42 PM

Lord Miles now declared and his trainer suspended in an investigation of several horse deaths recently at Churchill Downs.

dogkatcher · 05-04-2023, 11:46 PM

Continuar OUT
King Russell IN

Rumors, Forte may be scratched.

05-01-2023, 05:58 PM	#1
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 307	2023 Kentucky Derby Some way too early thoughts. I do not normally like west coast horses coming east to run, but Practical Move looks like a really good deal at 10-1 morning line. Does anyone have any thoughts on Two Phil's? I have never handicapped Turfway Park but his big win there last out kind of makes him a troubling unknown. Rapidly improving 3 year olds are the bane of handicappers, there is no real way to tell what their upside is. Tapit Trice is a good looking horse as is Verifying, but since they were only a neck apart at Keeneland, I am not sure I understand why one is 5-1 and the other is 15-1... both have great connections, so is a neck difference really worth a three times difference in odds?

05-01-2023, 07:33 PM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	2023 Kentucky Derby Not ready to seriously comment YET, about the pace projection of this famous yearly contest, BUT, the post draw as today and the probables did not get poor posts. I welcome various projections from the members here.....I will be back with an evaluation either late Thursday, or mid afternoon Friday, so come on join us with your own evaluations. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

05-01-2023, 08:23 PM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	I merged these 2 Kentucky Derby Threads started today. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

05-02-2023, 01:18 PM	#4
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	At the old Derby List website, they held a contest each year for this spectacle, BUT it was not what you'd think: you had to predict the colt that would finish LAST...Many a year the "prize" (of being the one who did it) was not claimed at all because it is a tough thing to do. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 05-02-2023 at 01:22 PM.

05-04-2023, 05:23 AM	#6
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Rich Strike also Rich Strike's last prep was at the same track too and on Synthetic surface But my main curiosity was the designated speed rating off its maiden claiming race at Churchill race track where it won by 17 lengths drawing away. Bris race rating service gave Rich Strike a 85???

05-04-2023, 12:28 PM	#7
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	I doubt 22 will draw in, but it's LONE paceline would make it a contender __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

05-04-2023, 01:43 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	SA Derby winner OUT (Practical Move)and Cyclone Mischief IN...That is a bit of a shocker __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

05-04-2023, 08:42 PM	#9
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Lord Miles now declared and his trainer suspended in an investigation of several horse deaths recently at Churchill Downs. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

05-04-2023, 11:46 PM	#10
dogkatcher Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 469	Continuar OUT King Russell IN Rumors, Forte may be scratched. __________________ "There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man"

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