M4$ Mar12 Challenge7 (Capcondo)

[The Pook]

Challenge7

[Capcondo]

With some huge weather issues in the south and in California, we're going to Tampa on their big day of the season for what hopefully will be a decent price.

Scratches early A.M. tomorrow.

Good matching.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...195&param3=780

[Capcondo]

TAM 1.pdf

[mowens33]

Picks 6 and 5

[Capcondo]

#8: Holiday Boy and #9: Tree Fire as of 9:39 AM EST

[Pat C.]

Another tough race with lots of speed & tandems. #2 should set a fast pace, but the distance is a question for him.
Pace 47.4. 113.
I see the race as OTE
The #6 can close against this pace
The #9 will be close up and can handle this pace.

6 & 9 for the win

[Ted Craven]

The other Earlies in the race are gone (8 & 9). #2 is the lone Early. He can slow down considerably and use that conserved energy to stretch out. At a price (though not 10-1 Morning Line anymore).

Selection: #2

Ted

[cigar]

Pace: 24.1 - 48.2 - 113

If #2 slow it the pace down, he move up for win.

Leaning toward E with but (OTE)

Win: 2 - 6

1 - slow out
2 - Speed - contender
3 - contender
4 - slow - out
5 - ? not sure what to make of
6 - Contender
7 - may influence pace - out

[Capcondo]

TAM #1:

Disappointed with the scratches which has changed the complexion of the race. Agree that the 2 will get the lead. But, horses with this pattern don't win often at 1 1/16 miles. I think the pace will be something around 24.0 48.0 with the 7 contesting the early lead.

The tandem B4 scratches was the last race on the 5 and 9 (I know 9 is out). The 5 will run much closer than he did in his last as shown by the race at DEL 6 back.

The 5 is my choice to win the race.

[PeteC]

With the scratches the #2 appears to be the dominant early. Only three other runners have ever been on the lead: #7 who went out in 24 48 last time, but had been more of a presser prior to that race, #1 had the lead two-back setting a 24.2 49 114.1, and #5 who made the lead in a slow 50.3! Comparing them to #2, Pendulum seems much faster. He’s nearly wired two sprint fields against faster paces, only failing recently against a VERY fast 22.2 45.1. The record shows a win at the distance (not shown in PP’s). The only two routes were a loss at RP where it couldn’t keep up with a 23.2 46.3 and a sharp second dueling all the way against 24 47.4 112.3. Coming off a blowout win last time I feel good about accepting that line. All that being said it looks like the dominant early and does not need the lead.
Of the OTE runners I don’t see much in the way of power moves. I would say #5 looks best, making a mild move against the fastest last race route.
I am going to take the 2 to win.