Value Beaten Length

[Houndog]

Ted, would the value of a beaten length differ from Validator, Spec160, and RDSS according to the fraction and distance of the race. I know the rule of thumb is 10 feet per length. I was reading a manual that Doc gave out at Handicapping Expo 90 and I think he was suggesting that he was using different values for a beaten length.

For example if I read Doc's example for a 6 furlong race correctly he was suggesting something like a 5.5 feet value for the first fraction; 10 feet for the second fraction; and 5.5 feet for the final fraction. I think Doc may have started doing this with his more advanced programs starting with Energy.

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

Validator uses the sliding scale of shorter beaten lengths at all sprint fractions, and varied at each fraction for routes. Speculator uses 8.33 feet universally, for each fraction, at all distances.

RDSS (you guessed it), can be made to behave either way. The default (so far) is 8.33, but for final Validator compatibility testing, we'll set phasers to 'validate'. I can't say right now which I think is better, but I suspect on balance, it matters little. I've not been disappointed at all in the results produced by Speculator, but I am nothing if not open to empirical evidence.

I don't know about Energy, but the values you cite are not the ones used in Validator.

Hope that helps,

Ted

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Mike,

Validator uses the sliding scale of shorter beaten lengths at all sprint fractions, and varied at each fraction for routes. Speculator uses 8.33 feet universally, for each fraction, at all distances.

RDSS (you guessed it), can be made to behave either way. The default (so far) is 8.33, but for final Validator compatibility testing, we'll set phasers to 'validate'. I can't say right now which I think is better, but I suspect on balance, it matters little. I've not been disappointed at all in the results produced by Speculator, but I am nothing if not open to empirical evidence.

I don't know about Energy, but the values you cite are not the ones used in Validator.

Hope that helps,

Ted

Ted, actually that helps quite a bit. I started thinking about this after reading Doc Sartin's technical paper for Handicapping Expo 90 which was held at the Mirage in Las Vegas. The title of the technical paper was The Dynamics Of Incremental Velocity & ENERGY Exertion. An Introduction to The Sartin Methodology. Starting on page 44 thru 47 he talks about different values for a BL.

Doc gives an example of a hypothetical opening fraction in a six furlong race.
Horse A: 22 Seconds On the lead
B: Behind 1 Length
C:Behind 1.5 Lengths
Using a value of 10 feet per bl. A: 60 f/p/s B: 59.54 f/p/s C: 59.31 f/p/s
Using a value of 5.5 feet per bl A: 60 f/p/s B: 59.75 f/p/s C: 59.62 f/p/s

Average difference per BL at 10 feet =.46
Average difference per BL at 5.5 feet =.25

To quote Doc Sartin "By making the value of a beaten length 5.5 feet at the quarter we have done two important things: 1) increased the relative velocities in accordance with the shorter increment of distance covered and 2) equalized the value of a beaten length relative to the second call distance of a half mile. Physiologically a horse is more capable of gaining ground in the FIRST segment of a race so the diminished per foot value of a length is pertinent. The law of equal opposites dictates that the same factor is also valid in the final segement when maximum toxicity diminishes the numerical value of a length gained.

Doc also stated that at a half mile, the second call in Sprints; and at 3/4 of a mile, the second call in non-marathon Routes, the value of a beaten length is sufficiently stable to assign a single value. Ten or Eleven feet are most often used.

The final argument for adjusting the value of a length lost or gained by distance segment is that it produces superior results: an average of 5 more winners per 100 races." End of Doc Sartin's quote.

You could imagine the response Doc got when presenting this to some of the people in attendance. Many of the peple thought it was just a bunch of techno babble on Doc's part. They were more interested in "speed handicapping"; trainer studies; trip handicapping; etc. One person who was paying attention was Tom Ainsle who attended one of Doc's sessions in which he was demonstrating KGEN (Kinetic Generator). Sometime afterwords Tom Ainsle started using THOROMATION. I know this because I met Tom Ainsle "The Dean" of handicappers at a Doc Sartin seminar held in New Orleans when we were at the Fairgrounds. Tom Ainsle was a very gracious and soft-spoken man who listened intently to other clients about their use of the program.

Thanks Ted for your response.