A Disappointed RDSS Evaluator

[Ted Craven]

I received this email following a prospective RDSS user's 30 day evaluation. I sincerely thank that user for taking the time to send me his thoughts, for better or for worse - some folks say nothing. My response to him follows.

Ted,
I have thoroughly enjoyed experimenting with your RDSS software, as well as reading much of the material on your forum and in the Sartin Library. However, the major question is whether or not using RDSS software is profitable. I have heard all the various arguments about "only a tool" before, as well as how it is essential to "use your own handicapping skills," many, many times before.

What I see is a software application that generates values with Sartin-type labels. What I DON'T see is a fundamental difference between this application and dozens of others, or between this application and a laptop with a simplistic app that works by entering selected paceline data from TrackMaster by hand.

I really, really want RDSS to work. Specifically, I had intended to learn enough about how to use it during the trial period to spend the winter in Miami, and at least be able to cover the cost of expenses by handicapping the races there with RDSS. After a month of hours each day exploring the software, developing pace line selections, developing contender selections, I am left with that same feeling of emptiness that many experienced using the Sartin materials.

That is, there are a lot of high hopes and expectations, and after the race is over, it always seems that one COULD have picked the right horse, but didn't. Having spent several years of near total immersion in the Sartin Methodology, I understand the philosophy quite well. I also understand that the majority of users did not bet on races--they cultivated the illusion that they could "turn professional" at any given moment, and make a decent living betting on races.

Of those who actually tried to apply the Sartin Methodology in the real world, most failed and abandoned it. The few that stuck with it were those who believed they were just one step away from pari-mutuel fame and fortune, and maintained that illusion by either not betting, or betting trivial amounts occasionally. Bluntly, the most "successful" Sartin Methodology users wagered primarily on paper, and picked the true contenders and proper pace lines AFTER the race. That is based on my experience with a number of Sartin groups in various locations over several years of intense effort.

Unfortunately, I don't see anything in RDSS that is an improvement on the Sartin Methodology, or that is suitable for professional use. It appears to be--just as the original--a hobby application for true believers and wishful thinkers. If all the application can do is crunch numbers, there are hundreds of other applications that do the same, with equivalent lack of success and profit.

I don't buy into the "you have to work harder to deserve winning" theory. I have paid my dues, done my homework, learned all the processes and procedures, and RDSS still comes up short in the specific department of picking winners. In general, I can pick as many (or more) winners with a perfunctory scan of past performances, and few or no calculations other than rough comparisons of TrackMaster speed ratings. I had hoped for considerably more.

I wish you well with your application, and with your group. I wish even more that the application had actually contained something innovative that could be used profitably.

Thanks

First of all, possibly you feel that you know all there is to know about Sartin's Methodology (since you say, separately, that you spent 3 years studying and using it intensively in the mid 1980's) and therefore there is no need to ask any questions - to me or to the support line or to the general user base here - whether there is possibly anything about the evolution of the Methodology since that time which you have not yet fully grasped. (I acknowledge you did enquire about how to create models, and we talked about the existing Export to Excel feature). I believe you also did download several of the older manuals and several RDSS videos, however no Follow Up Issues. I also observe that you never registered the software or downloaded any current cards from TrackMaster, though you say you did work with the Demo Database of cards from late February 2009 - which is what it's there for.

For the record, the modern Sartin Methodology is a long way from the mid 1980's (or even the mid 1990's). Follow Ups 70 - 88 tell that story. The modern Sartin Methodology is not just what Brohamer described in his book Modern Pace Handicapping, or what was described in Pace Makes the Race, both circa 1991. The modern Methodology involves incremental energy disbursement (deceleration), aggregate factors such as BL/BL and VDC, taking a contrarian approach to contender identification and wagering. We do not pick winners - we pick valuable wager opportunities. Check RichieP's 250 race workup. Check a few others' posted periodic aggregate records.


So, possibly you trust your own understanding from 20+ years ago more than the advice and assistance of those who post here and profess to be successful with RDSS (or Speculator or Validator or other predecessors). I only assume this since you did not ask for any help - and you have now formed the unhappy conclusion that the Methodology does not work, does not produce a reliable profit.

Let me say this, and with all respect possible - I do not care if you use RDSS. There are other fine handicapping software products and methodologies out there: HTR, HSH, Black Magic, Jcapper and others. I believe you voiced almost identical disappointment after studying HTR, and I feel honoured that RDSS seems to be as unprofitable as HTR (though please forgive me if I confuse you with someone else). If you still believe betting on thoroughbred racing holds any promise for profit, and you have given it your all studying RDSS as a modern tool for applying the Sartin Methodology, then consider trying other software: perhaps one of them will work for you, or perhaps another one will better match your learning style.

But you have not given it your all. You have not (that I can see) asked members here who post both their pre-race selections and screenshots how they analysed a race (or a dozen races). You have not posted, or offered to send me your workup records from your study of the Demo Database races: 20 races per batch, wager selections made, BL/BL and VDC ranks of the winners (i.e. betting 2 horses, did you hit 10 of 20, 11 of 20, at what average mutuel). Did you try hiding a top ranked favourite with odds too low to bet (e.g. below 5/2) and see if the BLBL readout elevates the remaining contenders to bettable status (you can get free detailed Result Charts and closing odds for all races now from either Equibase or BRIS). What about races posted here with Analysis screens, showing either modest mutuels or much higher mutuels? You could download those cards (or just ask for them) and try to work them yourself to understand what the posters understand, and get the success the posters got. But if you think you already know how it all works and don't need to ask for help, well then you get what you expect to get.

I don't know how many (if any) people bet races professionally using RDSS or Sartin Methodology tools. I would be extremely surprised to learn that no one makes a persistent net profit from it, that it's merely a hobby for everybody, or that we are all actually lying to ourselves (and to each other). And several people whom I respect and trust would have to be lying to me for years now. Perhaps no amount of records would be sufficient proof of individual accomplishment (and thus hold promise for your own similar achievement) - since perhaps they might be fabricated. Though perhaps you would care to state what proof of profitability would satisfy you, sufficient to answer for you: "well, if 'someone' can do it with hard work and correct study, then so can I". But if you are already certain that it can't be done, that you cannot semi-retire to Florida with RDSS (i.e. that 'the grapes are sour - I don't need to try them'), then no amount of proof is sufficient: you know what you believe you know. But perhaps it will take more than 30 days to master the modern Sartin Methodology.

I post your email and my response here so that others may reply if they want. They might choose to answer whether they are profitable or not, whether it is merely an enjoyable (but not profitable) hobby, or whether they just enjoy being part of a club. Undoubtedly some will indeed empathize with you that they suspect there is something to this, and that they feel they are perennially 'just around the corner' from making it big time. Perhaps some will have advice for you as to what course of study or action you can take to gain a handle on RDSS and make it profitable for you. Possibly you are wanting to know if there is any long-term potential here, and if so - then you are ready to roll up your sleeves and dig in. But if not - then why waste more time? I can't think of another way to do that than to let the users speak, if they care to.

I have lots of plans for RDSS, which I wrote you about. Record keeping (wagers and models), ADW connections, wager decision advice, even better numbers, etc, etc. Check back later if you feel like it (but you'll still have to learn then what the tried and true analysis concepts are). When I started this project in late 2005, no-one needed another horse-race handicapping program, least of all by some guy named Ted Craven. What was needed, though, was a modern rendition of Sartin's final work (and the worthy Speculator follow-on program), based on Sartin's own code. My first goal was to replicate Validator and Speculator - as is - identical numbers, identical (or better) usefulness. And see if anyone would buy it (and would Sartin endorse it), AND, was it an interesting and enjoyable thing for me to spend my time on. I've done that, answered that. And now I am working on what I think the true promise of Sartin's work has been - an integrated system for contrarian velocity/energy/deceration/matchup analysis, coupled with mostly automated wager and model record-keeping and live tote and ADW integration. It won't ever do more than a very dedicated person could do and has for years done already, but it will be easier.

Maybe that's what you are waiting for, though I contend there remains work for you to do now. Feel free to check back. Also feel free to respond here if I've misrepresented your view, or if someone posts something that inspires you or challenges your understanding.

Best wishes!

Ted