% Early - Run-Up Query

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hello Sir

I need more information on these figures ...
are these sprint races ? Routes. Turf, Turf sprints down hills?
do these figures include $8000 3 year old filly maiden claimers
from GG and $500000 MS specials from Keeneland

What about the track speed ?
Each of your 4 tracks has different 3 year best times at each distance
There is a reason for different track speeds is
Class of horse- Class of track
Your also mixing poly and dirt tracks. That means its very common for
turf horses to run on the poly and vise versa

Here is another track Parx The 3 year best time for 6 furlongs
is 107.2 The average %E of my last 50 6 furlong non maiden
races is 51.95 The run up at Parx is 40 feet
The 3 year best time at GG for 6 furlongs is 108.3
Don't you think the %Early is a product of track surface track class
and track speed ?

Bill

Hi Bill,

Before I start, I am actually a "madam"... *shocking* LOL It's all good.

These were all at six furlongs at those specific tracks with a mishmash of all classes, sexes, age, etc... I was experimenting with a side project of what the general average is for each winner and pinpointing patterns/idiosyncrasies with a specific track's distance, surface etc... versus others.

As far as incremental and track times, I dohave that available so I will check that out.

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by Psychotic Parakeet

I really believe the run-up does affect early % for sure. Look at my sample database (minimum 50 race sample for each distance) of comparing the winning horse's performance at six furlongs at these different racetracks:

Keeneland (synthetic) Run-Up = 34 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
57.38 56.68 54.41 57.01 56.16 55.71 51.17%

Golden Gate (synthetic) Run-Up = 50 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
57.28 56.74 53.39 57.00 55.80 55.19 51.65

Hollywood Park (synthetic) Run-Up = 60 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
57.33 56.74 53.18 57.03 55.75 55.11 51.75

Santa Anita (dirt) Run-Up = 85 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
60.21 57.98 53.19 59.06 57.13 56.13 52.62


It seems to me the longer the run-up, the higher the E% goes. I wish I had more tracks to do some analyzing (thanks for giving me a new project ), but this topic definitely does raise an intriguing point.

Hey are you one of those psychotic parrots flying around the Pasadena area??....lol.....those things are crazy!!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

FTL,

I guess the inevitable answer of the impact of %E on the three matching earlies (or any other match-up variation for that matter) could only be really gathered through my own record keeping by track of such events.

I've been reading MPH recently and my aim is to order my work/analysis along the lines as advised by Tom B. I know you already know that what you've typed regarding the ranges of %E ties in with MPH. Thanks for confirming everything. I read the Paceline manual again earlier today & shall revisit the Pacelines thread.

The impact on three matching earlies is not so much the %E as it is the first fraction. If you look at the screen shot I used in my last post, I think you can conclude at a glance which horse had the highest %E. (the bottom horse) That horse won the race. Why? It had the best first fraction. The other early types couldn't keep up early and that horse went on to win.

OK, here's some food for thought.

What does %E mean?
%E tells you the percentage of a horse’s total energy it uses to the second call. In some circles this is called "median energy" and is expressed with number in the mid to high 60's or low 70's.

For purposes of this discussion, I will use track “A” and track “B”.
Both tracks are one mile ovals.
Both tracks have a conventional dirt surface.

Track “A” has a run up distance of 35 feet.
Track “B” has a run up distance of 60 feet.

Track “A” has an average %E of 51.00
Track “B” has an average %E of 53.00

You know the average %E is accurate because you calculated it from every winner, for every race, on the dirt, at each track, during their last “entire” meet.

Does track “A” have a lower average %E because the run up distance is shorter?
Does track “B” have a higher %E because the run up distance is longer?

Does track “A” have a lower average %E because the winners ran more sustained?
Does track “B” have a higher %E because the winners ran more early?

[DaveEdwards]

FTL,

I'm comfortable with the notion that the Match-Up itself may well overtake the prevailing track conditions. I think what has set me thinking really is the "middle ground" so-to-speak, where the prevailing conditions are having an effect either positive or negative in addition to the race Match-Up if this makes sense. Can't remember which tape I heard it on, but I think the quote was 55% of races being decided on the race Match-Up.

In the case of the Track A & Track B comparison I'd have to say first off that I perhaps don't have enough experience with looking at different tracks to be able to infer anything from the above figures. These figures may well be conveying something strongly, but I don't know.

That said, my thoughts would be that when looking at this as bare information is that perhaps the data we have here in isolation is incomplete enough to form any meaningful observations.

Track A has a shorter run-up and a lower %E, which could be in part down to the lower initial fps that the horses were travelling as they tripped the timer, but may also be in part due the track configuration.

The opposite is in effect at Track B, longer run-up & faster fps at the timer & again, no idea of the prevailing track conditions.

Essentially, I'd have to say that I don't know the answer to this.

Thanks.

[DaveEdwards]

FTL,

Would you please be able to clarify how I treat sub-6F distances when calculating the %E. In MPH Tom B only goes down as far as 6F, but I'd still like to be able to do everything accurately even if it is less applicable to the shorter distances.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

FTL,

Would you please be able to clarify how I treat sub-6F distances when calculating the %E. In MPH Tom B only goes down as far as 6F, but I'd still like to be able to do everything accurately even if it is less applicable to the shorter distances.

Ok, I’m only going to do 5 furlongs and 5.5 furlongs.
I will use the same half mile time in each case.
To make it as easy as possible, there will be no beaten lengths.
If there were beaten lengths, then they would have to be included.

First, 5 furlongs.
A half mile time of 46.0 seconds = 57.39 feet per second (2640=feet in a half mile/46.0 seconds = 57.39 feet per second)
If the race is 5 furlongs, that means there is an additional one eight of a mile or 660 feet.
If the final time is 1:00.0 (60 seconds), then the last fraction is 14 seconds.
You take the 660 feet and divide by 14, which equals 47.14 feet per second.
You then add 57.39+47.14 = 104.53
Then take 57.39 and divided by 104.53 = 54.90 %E

Next, 5.5 furlongs.
A half mile time of 46.0 seconds = 57.39 feet per second (2640=feet in a half mile/46.0 seconds = 57.39 feet per second)
If the race is 5.5 furlongs, that means there is an additional three sixteenths of a mile or 990 feet.
If the final time is 1:06.2 (66.2 seconds), then the last fraction is 20.2 seconds.
You take the 990 feet and divide by 20.2, which equals 49.01 feet per second.
You then add 57.39+49.01 = 106.40
Then take 57.39 and divided by 106.40 = 53.94 %E

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL

Dave or anybody who uses RDSS2
Its very easy to figure the Percentage Early
Go to the E/L TPR tab and divide the EPR by the CPR (tpr)

Here is the last pace line for horse # 6
The percent Early is 52.05 EPR 89.9 / Total 172.7 = 52.05 %E

Of course RDSS has the similar Med Energy which
tends to be easier to model The number's tend to be in closer ranges of acceptable parameters

[Bill V.]

Here is a column from my Parx 1 mile none maiden model
These are all from winning horses from the result charts

I have split the column, The Med Energy numbers are in a small
area mostly in the 68.00 - 69.00 range.
Under that are next few none maiden 1 mile distance winners
in Percentage Early numbers Notice the wider range of about 44 to over 50

[DaveEdwards]

FTL & Bill,

Thank you both ever so much for your help with this area. I feel ready to go with this now as an additional factor.

It should be easy enough to set up spreadsheets to address the calculations to work with the RDSS extracts and also analyse how a track is running on the night. I might as well do it for the %E & %Median & so I'll have both figures to hand. I'm aware that there was a move towards %Med, but I find %E easier to visualise. I guess I'll see how things pan out over time.

Thanks again both.