Charles Town - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Mitch44 · 03-26-2016, 11:01 AM

Fairchild shoot me a PM w/ your ph. # and I'll go through a card of picking pace lines with you. I'll try to get you on the right track and be as helpful as I can to up your game. You pick a card and pick all your lines and I'll do the same. Then we can discuss each horse's line etc.
Mitch44

Fairchild · 03-27-2016, 11:02 PM

Mitch44 It is very kind of you to offer to help me, I might take you up on it. First I want to try what Bill S has suggested. I have tried to visualize the + (+) 0 in my head but have not really put it all together using the horses entire history. I have begun to use graph paper and do each horse from the bottom line up using the RDSS screen. After I do this I examine each horses entire history in light of the symbols assigned to each line to determine who are the contenders and what PPL to use. I have applied this lesson to two entire cards so far and when I checked to see how I would have done the results were great. Mind you this is being done from races that were already ran but I think the work will really pay off. I urge those of you who are having trouble determining contenders and choosing the line to use to give this lesson a try, it will really benefit you. An added benefit is that some of the unplayable races will stand out. Luck to All

Mitch44 · 03-28-2016, 08:11 AM

The information can be gathered much more quickly looking at total energy which is already given for every race. After going from bottom to top then do it again by putting it in context with todays conditions of surface and distance. In fact take those two cards that you did and try it and make a comparison.

I'm not saying what your doing is wrong, it was definitely a proven technique from the past, if it works for you and your comfortable with it then use it. Its just that there are better and quicker tools available to achieve the same results. This even gets horses who are out of the money E.g. of their last race and the race looks ugly but the horse may have matched or was very close to its best race. A change of dis.,sur.,a drop down in class, or a easier pace of the race and the result is a good payoff. Even the "Doc" said that finish positions and beaten lengths can be deceiving, its how the horse ran and how against the pace of the race.

Myself I believe the time can be better spent analyzing the top contenders then the old approach. Handicappers become figure blind. Their blinded by total energy or BL/BL as examples and fail to examine their top contenders and do a complete analysis. E.g. You have three horses that are all rated with a CPR 170 or total energy of 165. These horses are not equal when put in context say for distance. If one is taken from 6 F line because that's all the horse has in its PP and today is a route he's at a huge disadvantage. Proven at the distance trump's (card game word) this horse, even more so if it was decelerating in the 3rd FR. Even router's who have identical 3rd FR and total energy. if todays dis. is 9F and one's race was at 8.5 and the other say 9 F.,advantage to the 9F because he has proven the dis. and their 3rd Fr are the same. We don't know where deceleration will take place with the 8.5 horse and the other has proven it. Context and analyzing are keys to success and most become blinded by numbers.

Imagine if we never progressed. We would be doing all this with pen and paper. A tough learning curve for me was the event and progress of computers. What a game changer! Adapt or perish.

As I said if it works for you terrific, go with it. good luck and skill.
Mitch44

Bill S · 03-28-2016, 10:16 AM

Like Mitch44 says, there are alternative tools today that help with this, like Total Energy, and EPR/LPR/CPR comparison. These are both excellent techniques and I use them many times when I handicap a race.

What I am trying to get across here, and what I see a lot of (myself included), is that we try to run before we can walk. We don't learn the basics of the methodology first and create a strong foundation to build upon. I did that myself back in 2010 when I first joined this board and started using RDSS. I dived right into RDSS and thought it was going to do everything for me....well I was wrong. I took a bit of time off and then came back, but this time I dived into the methodology itself headfirst. I spent six months studying it before I even fired up RDSS again. That experience helped me more than anything I ever did before. RDSS is a toolbox filled with a set of powerful tools. Only problem is we need to learn how to use the tools before we can win. If a craftsmen doesn't understand how to use his tools he will never succeed in his craft.

I remember years ago I saw Bill V and a few people here talking about +, 0, and (+). I read a bit about it and decided to give it a try. So I did the same thing I told Fairchild to do, bought a racing form and marked the entire thing up with pluses and zeros, and then went back and looked at them. The experience turned a light on in my head. Gave me a new understanding of things. To this day I'd have to say that one exercise was one of the best learning experiences I have had in handicapping.

I don't mark the form today as I can see the plus/zero/plus-zero races myself mentally. This is the purpose of the exercise. To teach you to do this. Also RDSS does a lot of this for you already. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd color-coding of pace lines show the plus races right off, and you can see color coding at the 1st and 2nd call points to help indicate plus within zero races. No color can indicate the possibility of a zero race.

I'm not telling Fairchild to continue buying forms and marking them with pluses and zeros, what I am telling him to do is perform this one time exercise to increase his proficiency in this technique. To strengthen the foundation. Then it will happen subconsciously. In his head. it will be intuitive to him. Intuition is a word you hear a lot when it comes to paceline selection, at least from guys like Sartin and Pizzolla.

03-28-2016, 08:11 AM	#13
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	The information can be gathered much more quickly looking at total energy which is already given for every race. After going from bottom to top then do it again by putting it in context with todays conditions of surface and distance. In fact take those two cards that you did and try it and make a comparison. I'm not saying what your doing is wrong, it was definitely a proven technique from the past, if it works for you and your comfortable with it then use it. Its just that there are better and quicker tools available to achieve the same results. This even gets horses who are out of the money E.g. of their last race and the race looks ugly but the horse may have matched or was very close to its best race. A change of dis.,sur.,a drop down in class, or a easier pace of the race and the result is a good payoff. Even the "Doc" said that finish positions and beaten lengths can be deceiving, its how the horse ran and how against the pace of the race. Myself I believe the time can be better spent analyzing the top contenders then the old approach. Handicappers become figure blind. Their blinded by total energy or BL/BL as examples and fail to examine their top contenders and do a complete analysis. E.g. You have three horses that are all rated with a CPR 170 or total energy of 165. These horses are not equal when put in context say for distance. If one is taken from 6 F line because that's all the horse has in its PP and today is a route he's at a huge disadvantage. Proven at the distance trump's (card game word) this horse, even more so if it was decelerating in the 3rd FR. Even router's who have identical 3rd FR and total energy. if todays dis. is 9F and one's race was at 8.5 and the other say 9 F.,advantage to the 9F because he has proven the dis. and their 3rd Fr are the same. We don't know where deceleration will take place with the 8.5 horse and the other has proven it. Context and analyzing are keys to success and most become blinded by numbers. Imagine if we never progressed. We would be doing all this with pen and paper. A tough learning curve for me was the event and progress of computers. What a game changer! Adapt or perish. As I said if it works for you terrific, go with it. good luck and skill. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-28-2016 at 08:14 AM.

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03-26-2016, 11:01 AM	#11
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Fairchild shoot me a PM w/ your ph. # and I'll go through a card of picking pace lines with you. I'll try to get you on the right track and be as helpful as I can to up your game. You pick a card and pick all your lines and I'll do the same. Then we can discuss each horse's line etc. Mitch44

03-27-2016, 11:02 PM	#12
Fairchild AlwNW3X Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 44	Mitch44 It is very kind of you to offer to help me, I might take you up on it. First I want to try what Bill S has suggested. I have tried to visualize the + (+) 0 in my head but have not really put it all together using the horses entire history. I have begun to use graph paper and do each horse from the bottom line up using the RDSS screen. After I do this I examine each horses entire history in light of the symbols assigned to each line to determine who are the contenders and what PPL to use. I have applied this lesson to two entire cards so far and when I checked to see how I would have done the results were great. Mind you this is being done from races that were already ran but I think the work will really pay off. I urge those of you who are having trouble determining contenders and choosing the line to use to give this lesson a try, it will really benefit you. An added benefit is that some of the unplayable races will stand out. Luck to All

03-28-2016, 10:16 AM	#14
Bill S AlwNW3X Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Bensalem PA Posts: 33	Like Mitch44 says, there are alternative tools today that help with this, like Total Energy, and EPR/LPR/CPR comparison. These are both excellent techniques and I use them many times when I handicap a race. What I am trying to get across here, and what I see a lot of (myself included), is that we try to run before we can walk. We don't learn the basics of the methodology first and create a strong foundation to build upon. I did that myself back in 2010 when I first joined this board and started using RDSS. I dived right into RDSS and thought it was going to do everything for me....well I was wrong. I took a bit of time off and then came back, but this time I dived into the methodology itself headfirst. I spent six months studying it before I even fired up RDSS again. That experience helped me more than anything I ever did before. RDSS is a toolbox filled with a set of powerful tools. Only problem is we need to learn how to use the tools before we can win. If a craftsmen doesn't understand how to use his tools he will never succeed in his craft. I remember years ago I saw Bill V and a few people here talking about +, 0, and (+). I read a bit about it and decided to give it a try. So I did the same thing I told Fairchild to do, bought a racing form and marked the entire thing up with pluses and zeros, and then went back and looked at them. The experience turned a light on in my head. Gave me a new understanding of things. To this day I'd have to say that one exercise was one of the best learning experiences I have had in handicapping. I don't mark the form today as I can see the plus/zero/plus-zero races myself mentally. This is the purpose of the exercise. To teach you to do this. Also RDSS does a lot of this for you already. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd color-coding of pace lines show the plus races right off, and you can see color coding at the 1st and 2nd call points to help indicate plus within zero races. No color can indicate the possibility of a zero race. I'm not telling Fairchild to continue buying forms and marking them with pluses and zeros, what I am telling him to do is perform this one time exercise to increase his proficiency in this technique. To strengthen the foundation. Then it will happen subconsciously. In his head. it will be intuitive to him. Intuition is a word you hear a lot when it comes to paceline selection, at least from guys like Sartin and Pizzolla.