Energy & Match-Up - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 11-11-2006, 10:43 AM

Houndog,Im glad you posted that because this is where I get screwed up big time.I see that Gold does have a big advantange on F1 but wouldnt you think because of his F2 and F3 fractions the other horses would overtake him.I think it's hard for me looking at times rather than beaten lengths.Jeff

Houndog · 11-11-2006, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin

thank you for you help with these readouts
I see in the SMUV readout or Sustained Match Up Varigate readout a pretty tight grouping No real stand out late.
is this correct ?
Bill

Yes Bill I would agree with you on this. This does not help a Sustained horse like Rogue which does not have any major advantages in SMUV and also is highest in UXR. Rogue's total energy was only 3rd out of these 4. When the early horses have an advantage in total energy over sustained horses usually does not bode well for the sustaine types. Rogue finished last and never threatened. Actually the winner Gold was 4th in Total Energy out of these 4, but that early advantage is significant and cannot be discounred.

admin · 11-11-2006, 10:56 AM

Jeff and Houndog

Jeff.I was thinking that since the SMUV readouts
were so tight would it be more of a case of a seperate battle
(using more energy) amonst them all late than Gold is using early
sort of like two races in one
Bill

Houndog · 11-11-2006, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

Houndog,Im glad you posted that because this is where I get screwed up big time.I see that Gold does have a big advantange on F1 but wouldnt you think because of his F2 and F3 fractions the other horses would overtake him.I think it's hard for me looking at times rather than beaten lengths.Jeff

Good question and comment Jeff. Let's look at F1 first
Gold-35.31 Coji-34.55 Kelly-34.42. Gold has a .76 advantage over Coji and a .89 advantage over Kelly.

F2 Gold-33.18 Coji-33.72 Kelly-33.85 Coji has an advantage of .54 and Kelly has an advantage of .67 energy units, not enough to overtake Gold in this match-up. Also Gold may be able to conserve some of that energy for the latter stages of the race due to the big advantage he has early in the race. Hope this helps Jeff.

shoeless · 11-11-2006, 11:37 AM

It seems though they have an advantage as well in the 3rd fraction that would overtake Gold.Im not trying to be a devil's advocate here just trying to understand using the match up with a computer.Jeff

Houndog · 11-11-2006, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

It seems though they have an advantage as well in the 3rd fraction that would overtake Gold.Im not trying to be a devil's advocate here just trying to understand using the match up with a computer.Jeff

Jeff, that is correct and is a judgement call. At the very least Gold should be one of your win contenders and I would take Coji as the second win contender if you are a 2 horse bettor. Kelly and Gold are not far apart in SMUV. If you box these 3 in an exacta it paid over $80.00. I just felt that with Gold Storm's advantage early in the race he could pass that advantage on to the latter portion of the race. He would not have to run as fast early in the race.

shoeless · 11-11-2006, 05:09 PM

Houndog I see your point and Bill thanks as well.Jeff

forecast · 11-13-2006, 07:50 PM

Hi Jeff,

Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected. Actually, I find that when I do the match-up particularly well, the contenders and pacelines tend to select themselves. These are the races to really "pounce" on, from a betting standpoint.

I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know.

Forecast

shoeless · 11-13-2006, 08:05 PM

Forecast,Thanks I think I am putting too much emphasis on the 2nd fraction.Gary was telling me the same thing that you and Houndog said.Jeff

shoeless · 11-15-2006, 07:59 AM

Gary was nice enough to hook up with me and show me how to use the match up using Energy.We hit 4 out of 5 races[im kind of slow doing the races] and a couple were double digit winners.Also in one race we had the top 3 finishers in order.He is really a good teacher and I see now where in the old seminar tapes Jim would say as long as you get the right contenders in the program it will take care of the rest.Jeff

11-11-2006, 10:56 AM	#13
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	overtake Jeff and Houndog Jeff.I was thinking that since the SMUV readouts were so tight would it be more of a case of a seperate battle (using more energy) amonst them all late than Gold is using early sort of like two races in one Bill

11-11-2006, 11:37 AM	#15
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	It seems though they have an advantage as well in the 3rd fraction that would overtake Gold.Im not trying to be a devil's advocate here just trying to understand using the match up with a computer.Jeff Last edited by shoeless; 11-11-2006 at 11:55 AM.

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11-11-2006, 10:43 AM	#11
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Houndog,Im glad you posted that because this is where I get screwed up big time.I see that Gold does have a big advantange on F1 but wouldnt you think because of his F2 and F3 fractions the other horses would overtake him.I think it's hard for me looking at times rather than beaten lengths.Jeff

11-11-2006, 05:09 PM	#17
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Houndog I see your point and Bill thanks as well.Jeff

11-13-2006, 07:50 PM	#18
forecast AlwNW3X Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 44	Hi Jeff, Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected. Actually, I find that when I do the match-up particularly well, the contenders and pacelines tend to select themselves. These are the races to really "pounce" on, from a betting standpoint. I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know. Forecast

11-13-2006, 08:05 PM	#19
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Forecast,Thanks I think I am putting too much emphasis on the 2nd fraction.Gary was telling me the same thing that you and Houndog said.Jeff

11-15-2006, 07:59 AM	#20
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Gary was nice enough to hook up with me and show me how to use the match up using Energy.We hit 4 out of 5 races[im kind of slow doing the races] and a couple were double digit winners.Also in one race we had the top 3 finishers in order.He is really a good teacher and I see now where in the old seminar tapes Jim would say as long as you get the right contenders in the program it will take care of the rest.Jeff