The Mitchell Matrix - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 09-03-2009, 03:00 PM

Full moon tomorrow. Expect longshots through Saturday.

Whenever this happens I use the "Mitchell Matrix." Dick Mitchell designed this for "chaos" races.

To illustrate by example, if you have five contenders, then pick the five largest paying exactas among those contenders.

If six contenders, then bet the six biggest exactas.

If seven contenders, then bet the seven biggest exactas.

Vinnie · 09-03-2009, 06:54 PM

David:

Very intriguing concept! Tell me, did Dick Mitchell write some sort of paper on his "Mitchell Matrix" at any point in the past? I was just wondering if it might still be in print?

Thanks David.

Good Evening and Good Skill.

Vinnie

tom · 09-03-2009, 08:33 PM

It is on at least one of his books....maybe Commonsense Handicapping?
A guy I used to go to the track with used that a lot and he hit some doozies that I could never explain!

SilentRun · 09-03-2009, 11:16 PM

I have Mitchell's "Exacta Wagering" DVD and he first describes how to calculate
what is the Exacta Fair Pay as follows:

Exacta $2 Fair Pay=$2(win horse odds) x (Place horse odds + 1)

Example: Win horse odds - 4/1 and Place horse odds - 9/2 then:

EFP = $2x(4) x (4.5 +1) = 8(5.5) - $ 44.00

If the exacta is paying $40.00 then this is an underlay.
Actual he recommends not to bet unless there is a 25% to 40% percentage
above the fair pay amount.

As For the Matrix: say you have 4 contenders,

A=5/2, B=7/2, C=4 and D=6. You feel that A and B are the win candidates.
Then you set up a matrix with the win horses ( A & B) as columns and the
place horses A, B, C, D as rows. and you compute the Exacta fair value for
each of the combos. A/B, A/C, A/D, B/A, B/C, B/D and check the Exacta Fair
value against the Exacta prices at the time. This could be a lot of work as the
exacta prices keep changing. You enter the overlay exactas in the appropriate
matrix boxes and bet accordingly. To save computational time you could build
a Fair Pay chart with as many calculations as you wish.

This is the concept although I never tried it.

Ernie

Vinnie · 09-03-2009, 11:30 PM

Ernie:

Thank you for the very detailed explanation of the "Mitchell Matrix". I love any idea(s) that seek value when and if you should decide that it is time for you to jump in and make a play or take a shot in a given race.

Thanks a bunch for sharing.

Vinnie

SilentRun · 09-04-2009, 12:04 AM

Your Welcome.

Ernie

Rverge · 09-04-2009, 05:28 PM

here is a grid from DMR 9-3 2nd race. B meadows does a grid but i think he requires higher returns from his grid. "money secrets at the race track" explains.

SilentRun · 09-05-2009, 09:24 AM

Rverge,

The exacta result for DMR 9/3 Race 3 was 5/4 and paid $ 32.60 which is
clearly an underlay as per the matrix.
Can you elaborate on the concept in "Money Secrets at the Race Track"
as I do not have the book.

Thanks,

Ernie

Rverge · 09-06-2009, 04:28 PM

true the grid does show a underlay. one would select only the overlay payoffs using the grid while using the tracks probables for the exacta pool.
using 4-5 contenders out of larger fields, one makes their own grid and only plays the overlaid prices.
"money secrets at the race track" is about making your odds line bet. barry meadows requires a higher pay outs then mitchell did. its a paperback book.
gamblers warehouse should have it. a good read.
Rverge

09-03-2009, 03:00 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	The Mitchell Matrix Full moon tomorrow. Expect longshots through Saturday. Whenever this happens I use the "Mitchell Matrix." Dick Mitchell designed this for "chaos" races. To illustrate by example, if you have five contenders, then pick the five largest paying exactas among those contenders. If six contenders, then bet the six biggest exactas. If seven contenders, then bet the seven biggest exactas.

09-03-2009, 06:54 PM	#2
Vinnie Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 223	David: Very intriguing concept! Tell me, did Dick Mitchell write some sort of paper on his "Mitchell Matrix" at any point in the past? I was just wondering if it might still be in print? Thanks David. Good Evening and Good Skill. Vinnie __________________ "All human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method". F. Kafka

09-03-2009, 11:16 PM	#4
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Mitchell Matrix I have Mitchell's "Exacta Wagering" DVD and he first describes how to calculate what is the Exacta Fair Pay as follows: Exacta $2 Fair Pay=$2(win horse odds) x (Place horse odds + 1) Example: Win horse odds - 4/1 and Place horse odds - 9/2 then: EFP = $2x(4) x (4.5 +1) = 8(5.5) - $ 44.00 If the exacta is paying $40.00 then this is an underlay. Actual he recommends not to bet unless there is a 25% to 40% percentage above the fair pay amount. As For the Matrix: say you have 4 contenders, A=5/2, B=7/2, C=4 and D=6. You feel that A and B are the win candidates. Then you set up a matrix with the win horses ( A & B) as columns and the place horses A, B, C, D as rows. and you compute the Exacta fair value for each of the combos. A/B, A/C, A/D, B/A, B/C, B/D and check the Exacta Fair value against the Exacta prices at the time. This could be a lot of work as the exacta prices keep changing. You enter the overlay exactas in the appropriate matrix boxes and bet accordingly. To save computational time you could build a Fair Pay chart with as many calculations as you wish. This is the concept although I never tried it. Ernie

09-03-2009, 11:30 PM	#5
Vinnie Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 223	Ernie: Thank you for the very detailed explanation of the "Mitchell Matrix". I love any idea(s) that seek value when and if you should decide that it is time for you to jump in and make a play or take a shot in a given race. Thanks a bunch for sharing. Vinnie __________________ "All human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method". F. Kafka

09-04-2009, 05:28 PM	#7
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	here is a grid from DMR 9-3 2nd race. B meadows does a grid but i think he requires higher returns from his grid. "money secrets at the race track" explains. Attached Images __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

09-03-2009, 08:33 PM	#3
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	It is on at least one of his books....maybe Commonsense Handicapping? A guy I used to go to the track with used that a lot and he hit some doozies that I could never explain!

09-04-2009, 12:04 AM	#6
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Your Welcome. Ernie

09-05-2009, 09:24 AM	#8
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Rverge, The exacta result for DMR 9/3 Race 3 was 5/4 and paid $ 32.60 which is clearly an underlay as per the matrix. Can you elaborate on the concept in "Money Secrets at the Race Track" as I do not have the book. Thanks, Ernie

09-06-2009, 04:28 PM	#9
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	true the grid does show a underlay. one would select only the overlay payoffs using the grid while using the tracks probables for the exacta pool. using 4-5 contenders out of larger fields, one makes their own grid and only plays the overlaid prices. "money secrets at the race track" is about making your odds line bet. barry meadows requires a higher pay outs then mitchell did. its a paperback book. gamblers warehouse should have it. a good read. Rverge __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.