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Old 05-24-2013, 03:12 PM   #1
lightspeed2011
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bris race shapes vs track variant

I’m wondering if bris race shapes, like track variant, are good unless they’re bad.

Bris says “relative to par”, “average winners time” and 2 points per length
implication is, like speed to par, there should be a baseline for comparison

gulfstream - 8.5 turf

same horse - same track - same distance - same surface

example 1 - 01/2011
call1 - 50.8 - shape -13 (6.5 lengths slow) - means par near 49.5
call2 - 75.6 - shape -13 (6.5 lengths slow) - means par near 74.3
fin - 105.0 - variant -21 (10.5 lengths slow) - means par near 103

example 2 - 04/2011
call1 - 47.4 - shape +8 (4 lengths fast) - means par near 48.2
call2 - 71.1 - shape +11 (5.5 lengths fast) - means par near 72.1
fin - 102.0 - variant -5 (2.5 lengths slow) - means par near 101.5

If I understand this:
looking at call2
75.6 - 71.1 = 4.5 seconds which is reported as shape going from -13 to + 11 (a 24 point or 12 length swing)
using shape of 24, time diff should be between 1 to 1.5 seconds, not 4.5
using time, shape diff should be 8-10, not 24

Anyone know how/why they justify this?
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Old 05-24-2013, 05:43 PM   #2
tom
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Everything is based off the relationships between the speed figure and the pace figures.

Example - SF = 80, pace par for 80 is 80 (for sake of discussion)
Race pace is 85, the race shape is fast 5.
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Old 05-24-2013, 06:05 PM   #3
tom
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Look at Cross Traffic's last line in the Met Mile - that race has the same pars as the Met mile, and he was the leader at both first calls, so you can see the +6 and +4 race shape.
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Old 05-24-2013, 09:50 PM   #4
lightspeed2011
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shape to par by horse or leader question

Thanks Tom,

I understand the principles - I don’t understand these figs - looks like a moving par time or am I mixing apples and cement blocks.

I get 4 different par times from the same horse in 2 different races depending whether I use adj time or use shape (calcs below).

bris faq on shapes:

“.. relative to the par for the final time.”

“… how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race's final time. “

“This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time).”

“For example, a "+6" Race Shape represents a pace which is three (3) lengths faster than normal.”



Is shape strictly a WITHIN THIS RACE measurement?
That it’s based on leader to par would seem that would not to be the case.

let me do this a different way

from DRF data file for gp 8.5f turf and using 5 lengths per sec:

bris par at 6f is 79 - not sure on the actual time used for par


race 1
known:
6f leader time = 75.6
horse bhnd 10 (2 sec)
horse pace 59 - 41 slow (20.5 lengths or 4.1 sec)
shape -13 (6.5 lengths or 1.3 sec)

calced:
horse adj time = 77.6 (75.6 + 2)
par time from horse pace = 73.5 (77.6 adj time - 4.1 pace diff)
par time from leader shape = 74.3 (75.6 leader time - 1.3 shape diff)


race 2
known:
6f leader time 71.1
horse bhnd 4 (0.8 sec)
horse pace 93 - 7 slow (3.5 lengths or 0.7 sec)
shape +11 for leader (5.5 lengths or 1.1 sec)

calced:
horse adj time using bhnd = 71.9 (71.1 + 0.8)
par time from horse pace = 71.2 (71.9 adj time - 0.7 pace diff)
par time from leader shape = 72.2 (71.1 leader time + 1.1 shape diff)
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Old 05-24-2013, 09:56 PM   #5
lightspeed2011
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let me add

Or is shape trying to say that a shape of +6 at call 1 means that the leader is on pace to FINISH 1 sec faster than par?

If that's the case, I refer back to their faq:

“This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time).”

Specifically states relative to EACH calls average pace.

Thanks.
Bob
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Old 05-27-2013, 01:28 PM   #6
Lt1
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I believe the race shape numbers are based on the leader at those calls which allows the user to see what a horse was facing such as closers against slow pace therefore it was at a disadvantage.
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:07 AM   #7
raceman5
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race shapes

I think Bob Pandolfo mentions these in his new longshot book, i have not read the book but i think a few guys on the board here have read it. Maybe they can shed some light on the subject.
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Old 05-30-2013, 10:27 PM   #8
tom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
I believe the race shape numbers are based on the leader at those calls which allows the user to see what a horse was facing such as closers against slow pace therefore it was at a disadvantage.
Yes.
Go back to Cross Traffic.
His SR in the last race is the same as the par for the Met (top right hand corner of the PPS) and he led at both early calls. The pace figs are based off the speed figs. Times are not used.
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