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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-19-2014, 10:01 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Treatment of "poor" finishes

Often, I find running lines where a horse was beat by several lengths after engaging the pace for a time, or made an evident move at some point in the race to gain contention. However, watching the replay of the actual race, I may observe that the jockey is either easing the horse back once all hope for a money finish is lost, resulting in a finish that appears worse than it looked, or the jockey basically stops riding hard, letting the horse cruise under his own power, almost like being eased, but a similar outcome.

For obvious reasons, I wouldn't select a pace line where these situations occur, because you're going to give the horse inferior treatment in some way, shape or form. Finishes like these basically render speed figures of those horses as nearly irrelevant, because they are no longer under any drive and are basically just finishing the race with minimal effort. However, if a line either 2 or 3 starts back (within a reasonable time frame, i.e. within the last 90 days) shows a usable line, and line 1 and/or line 2 show evidence that the rider basically stopped or eased once hope was lost AFTER making an early or mid move, should we go ahead and use the usable line since the horse did do some legitimate running during one or two segments of the race? Or, should we as Ted likes to say, "trust our tools", select no line due to evident "poor form" and let the horse beat us should they run back to their "usable" race?

I apologize if my question is on a neophyte level, but I would love to hear some thoughts on the topic.
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Old 06-19-2014, 05:27 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Jeebs, you said it almost perfectly, in my view.

The line you describe would be called a 'good within a bad race' (+) and is certainly evidence that the horse has some spark to it. Unless it's a disadvantaged Early (perhaps again) today, i.e. other Earlies will demand the same pace again, or a chronic hanger - I would look for evidence of ability within the past 2 lines or so (and try to seek confirmation of such final time SR or internal pace times) - and then use THAT line to represent the horse.

I think it's more important to choose Contenders first, then find the best that they can do recently, but choose pacelines consistently so your race-to-race analysis can be called 'comparable' (e.g. best Perceptor rating within the last 3 races, comparable distance structure and surface). Don't forgive horses too much when you are seeking a bet in the Win pool - ask that they did something in their last line, or have an excuse (possibly like your opening scenario, or trouble, etc). You can forgive horses a bit more when you are only asking them to run 2nd - 4th.

If you are a one-horse, Win pool bettor - you can ask that a horse NOT be rated 20-1 on the Morning Line, or raced within 90 days, or use the 'Last Line except' ... But if you want to find contenders who can also finish in-the-money for your Place, Exacta and deeper vertical exotic pools - then consider following Doc Sartin's advice later in his career and look deeper (i.e. 2nd or 3rd races back) to represent what it can do today. Comparing all horses to each other this way, and separating Win Contenders from ITM Contenders (and including TOP 4 BL, Top 5 CSR and Top 3 and ties VDC, Top 3 CR among them - and eliminating the rest!) gets you LIVE HORSES to bet on a very VERY high percentage of the time.

Try it!

Jeebs, your scenario seems like a natural reason to go beyond the last line for a horse, if you're looking for other-than-favourites. The public will be very cautious about that last line, and sometimes give you a good price - which you'll need, to insure against the inevitable when you decide to bet ON such horses and they lose.

Maybe we can throw up a collection of images here illustrating what such horses look like (though it is important also to know the likely pace of the race it will face today).


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Old 06-20-2014, 07:29 AM   #3
mowens33
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Jeebs, Great question!
Ted, Fantastic reply!! Very informative!!!
Thanks to you both!!!!
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Old 06-22-2014, 09:12 AM   #4
Capcondo
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An example

Jeebs and Ted,

I'm a matchup guy but here is an example from the 2nd race yesterday at Arlington Park. The horse paid $36.00.

Name:  ScreenHunter_291 Jun. 22 05.51.jpg
Views: 386
Size:  232.6 KB

In the last race off a layoff, the horse gains position from 3rd to 2nd between the 1st and 2nd call. If you then go back to the last poly track race at KEE, you see a solid race at 7f. I played this horse but unfortunately didn't look at the pick 3. This horse keyed the 1st leg of a pick 3 that paid 2 out of 3. If one had hit all three, the $10,000 pool less the 25% takeout of $7,500 was there for a $1!
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Old 06-22-2014, 11:42 AM   #5
Appy
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That sire, High Cotton, is a Texas stud with whom my mare nicks triple plus. Speed horse. He was a burner.

I mention that as a segway to saying that I'm one of those who finds paying attention to breeding is a great tool for use as a tie-breaker, at the least, between your contenders.
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