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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-03-2016, 12:21 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Pace Line Section Sartin Guidelines

work in progress - check here often...

Here are some recommend reading options.
These are long post from the teaching 101 area
Please read these with an open mind. The posters are offering us
valuable information in a friendly Pace and Cap manner.
They are presented here to teach us how to win.

Bill

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Plus, Plus within a zero and zero + (+) 0
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...73&postcount=1

Best Of Last 3
Follow Up Issue #81 page 1 paragraph 2
Thank you to Tim LT1.

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more to come

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-03-2016 at 06:12 PM.
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Old 03-03-2016, 01:29 PM   #2
Mitch44
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Great post Bill, I concur 100%.
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Old 03-03-2016, 02:10 PM   #3
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I would also suggest Follow Up #81 page 1 paragraph 2.
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Old 03-03-2016, 06:16 PM   #4
Bill V.
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from a PM

.

Many people, never understood the concept of always using the last line. Before one can even get to using the last line, or any other line, they have to understand that they should only be using “+” or “(+)” lines. AND, they have to understand what a + or (+) line is! You don’t use the last line when the horse ran around the racetrack “dead last”! However, if the last line is a + or (+) line, then it should be used. Of course Doc always went on to explain situations when the last “bad” line is an “unless” line, in which case it is OK to go back ONE LINE! I mean, this is not brain surgery!!

Even when Doc shifted to using best of last 3 distance/surface, he told people to pay attention to the fact that he “very rarely” went back more than 3 lines.

Bill's thoughts ..
And I replied And If line 2 is also a non comparable, "unless" line than you go to line 3

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-03-2016 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 03-03-2016, 07:18 PM   #5
Mitch44
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PM: I go back to the early 90's with this stuff, the reason for the last line was to rate it as it was an indication of form I.e. improving or declining, as far as "+' or "o" race. No idiot would use the last line if " when the horse ran around the racetrack "dead last"."

Just because its a + line does it mean that it is the pace line to use. It better be at a comparable dis.,surface etc. Today with the advance of RDSS every line is rated in TPR, Tot. Energy, Pace of the race and Preceptor therefore IMO making the old + & O of races is obsolete, for me that is. Yea the program even rates those ugly races where the horse finished "dead last." ha ha A plus line in the last race or any line must be put in context to todays conditions and surface to be a useable line.

Depending on what format I'm looking at I also use Speed Rating for improving and declining form but the tools in RDSS mention above are better and all done for you, unlike the early 90's when this all had to be done by hand.

The Doc also went back past line 3 if they weren't at a comparable dis, sur. etc. In the above post, Bill's thoughts. . . . has it correct above and I'll go back further depending on what's in the horse's chart. Note: see Bill V. post above Pace line selection. . . . . from SportStat where the last line was no more predicable than line 4, Follow Up # 81,pg.1,par.#2

Galen G. Mitchell
AKA Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-03-2016 at 07:36 PM.
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Old 03-03-2016, 07:57 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Thank you Tim
Your suggestion will added
I added my thoughts . The stats are based on using the last line with no consideration of being of a comparable distance surface or competition level
This is why one of the first steps in phase 1 is to run the numbers on each horse last line . The winner will be amount the top 5 TPR almost ( nothing works always )
every time . Now once you have the top 5 off the last line Now lines can be looked at for the line that is the best of the last 3
Bill
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Old 03-04-2016, 11:35 PM   #7
Mark
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Do it your way!

Bill,
This is your thread and you have long experience with TPR or Phase I. It is your handicapping program of choice. You can educate from experience which is very gracious of you. This stuff takes time!!. Some of us, self included have gone in different directions or altered the strict interpretation of Doc and Jim's work. That's good as we need to make some money doing this or it is just gambling and we are all at liberty to put our own experience to work for us. However, I was thinking that your efforts are more directed to new users or those that have never had much experience with the Sartin Methodology or TPR. I commend you highly giving of your time and knowledge. Thank you!!
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