DMR results using FTL contenders

[Bill Lyster]

I sorted the summer DMR info by surface and then by the number of contenders in each race using FTL guidelines.

Precautionary note: Once you get more than 3 contenders you need to be able to make decisions/eliminations based on what you see on the screens. FTL's examples show in detail many reasons for elimination that help in identifying horses to eliminate. There are several sets of stats relative to 1st call and 2nd call positioning that help with this, ways to eliminate earlies that cannot keep up, etc. Studying the example races will help hone those skills. It will help a lot if you understand what both sides of the SEGMENTS screen is telling you.

Dirt results
#races/#Contenders/#wins

14/1/3, average winning odds (AWO) - 2.43/1

16/2/8, AWO 3.01/1

31/3/19, 14 winners top 2 at 2C on Segments, AWO of the 19 wins - 5.96/1

47/4/31, 30 top 3 at 2C, AWO of 31 wins - 4.82/1

30/5/26, 15 top 3 at 2C, AWO of 26 wins - 7.13/1

10/6+/10, 9 top 3 at 2C, AWO of 10 wins - 4.98/1


Turf info:

6/1/1, AWO 2.90/1

12/2/6, AWO 3.00/1

26/3/12, 6 top 2 at 2C, AWO - 3.55/1

32/4/24, 17 top 3 at 2C, AWO - 4.32/1

20/5/16, 11 top 3 at 2C, AWO - 6.78/1

11/6+/9, 6 top 3 at 2C, AWO - 4.09/1

So clearly races with one contender should be no plays

With 2 contenders you win 50% of the time, but the average mutual is 3/1, or breakeven, ROI wise.

The win probability from 3 on up increases and this is where understanding what SEGMENTS, BL and RX really helps eliminating contenders.

Many times in n2L, n3L races the 1/20 lifetime types drastically cut down the number of viable contenders otherwise identified.

ROI wise: appears to be plus with 3-4-5 contenders, a little better on the dirt side, with the average win price higher on dirt than turf.

This is a limited sample from one track, one meet, DMR summer meet. Your track may produce different info.