? - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Mitch44 · 08-08-2016, 06:02 PM

delayjf ; I wouldn't consider a drop in odds from 13-1 to 12-1 as significant at all. And the price the horse paid just tells me this doesn't appear to be a betting stable. Also the exacta doesn't seem to be out of line, I would give make the pay off $216 and it paid $233 for the ex., again insignificant.

I just don't think the trainer manipulated this horse for the amount it paid. You must remember that horses train pretty much daily even if just walking, jogging, galloping etc., it doesn't have to be a workout to enhance its overall condition, the total effect has a big influence on their condition to the point a horse can turn around in just a week or so.(condition that is) This horse hasn't raced in a couple weeks ,so it had plenty of time to turn around and greatly improve its condition.

Taulbot's angle or angles does not necessarily mean these things are intentional. At times the connections don't even know what they'll do and they really error on the side of being overconfident. As handicappers we frequently can place a horse or know if its properly spotted much better that their connections.

Mitch44

Mitch44 · 08-08-2016, 06:17 PM

I agree with you Bill on the workouts which weren't available before. That 5 F w/o was very good especially for a cheap horse like this indicating much better form that its chart indicates. This horse was definitely a contender and as Brohammer said " if you make a horse a contender than you should be ready to bet it." Like you Mark & Bill I wish I had seen this prior. I love these cheap races, the payoffs can be good. Ability to pick contenders and form are the keys.

Mitch44

delayjf · 08-08-2016, 06:41 PM

Quote:

delayjf ; I wouldn't consider a drop in odds from 13-1 to 12-1 as significant at all. And the price the horse paid just tells me this doesn't appear to be a betting stable. Also the exacta doesn't seem to be out of line, I would give make the pay off $216 and it paid $233 for the ex., again insignificant.

Actually, per Taulbot, the drop in odds is not a part of the angle, that was my two cents as I wanted to demonstrate the point that the public tends to bet horses on the drop. IMO, had this same horse not been dropped in class his odds would have gone up off his 20 length loss - but we will never know. How much do stables bet when they bet - I don't know, but a 200 win bet would have netted 10,000. If they did bet, he would have been wise to break his bet up to avoid the 10,000 IRS reporting limit.

Quote:

Taulbot's angle or angles does not necessarily mean these things are intentional. At times the connections don't even know what they'll do and they really error on the side of being overconfident. As handicappers we frequently can place a horse or know if its properly spotted much better that their connections.

That's certainly may be true but the point Taulbots angle was directly related to trainer intent. At a small track like PID, I would expect more stables would need to bet to supplement their income as the purses are small. This is only one explanation as to why a horse could lose its last two races by 46 lengths than win in a wake up race.

Anybody got any other ideas?

Bill V. · 08-08-2016, 07:05 PM

Thanks Mitch and Mark

I wish I had done this race live. I don't have the card
most days I down load only 1-2 tracks some days I download them all
the day this race ran I did not DL PID

I can tell just by the 67 speed rating of line 3, The speed ratings other horses are comparable, The 10/1 ML and the
fabulous workout I would jump all over the 2 horse at 20/1 let alone at 50/1
I would have bet it across the board like I bet Giacomo

Bill V. · 08-08-2016, 07:18 PM

Hi Delayjf

I know I am naïve, Doc actually called me that lovingly in the follow up
But I just can't wrap my mind into "lets lose to get a better price"
I think Doc would agree that thinking these things can be and is to me, detrimental to a winning mindset.

That is one of the reason I think Doc went to the best of the last 3
as his guideline, Let the horses ability speak for itself
If the horse is capable of running like it did in race 10 and race 3
the trainer, owner, will place it were its ability will allow it a chance to win
These are flesh and blood creatures with emotions
To me something was wrong, in the last two races but the workouts and
quick return to racing leads me to trust that everything is on the up and up

gl45 · 08-09-2016, 07:17 AM

Bill, you aren't naive, you just don't give yourself enough credit.

Lets don't forget that horse racing is a business, and if we think that horses run just for owners pleasure we making a big mistake and this race did prove that.
Winning pays the bills.
10 race back, fast work at 5 furlongs, strong FPD+ work (if furlong per days is greater than 1.1 the workout is considered very strong and this horse had a 1.153 FPD) and what else this horse had that made him a playable...... what follow is called FDK which is how the horse performed last race, lets see if the horse did pass the test:

At the 1C. the BL must be fewer than or equal to the 2C's.......YES
At the 2C, the BL must be equal to or greater than 5............YES
Between the SC and FC, thew loss of lengths should be 0 or <=6...YES
The last race must be an OMF (out the money finish).............YES
If today race distance is equal last race distance the horse gets credited with normal version.

And what is the name of this great angle, is called Form Darkening!!!! The horse had few other angles as well to make him a contender.

To quote Mitch....."Taulbot's angle or angles does not necessarily mean these things are intentional. At times the connections don't even know what they'll do and they really error on the side of being overconfident. As handicappers we frequently can place a horse or know if its properly spotted much better that their connections.".....

Trainers run horses, horses just run, and this trainer did fool everybody including you Mitch.

Plays like this don't come often but when they show up they are worth a small bet.

Good job in see the FDK and BA angles delayjf, you're right about the class drop, the horse was a BA angle based on his third race back.

3 race back was an A angles which suppose to win is 2 race back race but he lost and in the last race he became a BA angle horse which made the horse a stronger contender in the race that just won.

Mitch44 · 08-09-2016, 08:17 AM

Just for clarity I wasn't fooled by the horse and would have made it a contender. I don't know if I would have bet it or not. Everyone has the horse after the fact. I do know one thing and that is the last two finishes,beaten lengths and odds would not have scared me off. I posted a bet I made here and the horse paid $108. Now out of 4 contenders one has to reduce it to two horses and I honestly couldn't say if he would have survived the cut. Most would have been scared off by the odds, finishing and beaten length. In order to reap the rewards one has to make the bet. But this was an interesting horse. Darkening of form does exist and a player would indeed be naïve to believe otherwise however it doesn't exist to the extent most players believe in.
Good luck with your angles,
Mitch44

delayjf · 08-09-2016, 10:44 AM

Quote:

I know I am naïve, Doc actually called me that lovingly in the follow up
But I just can't wrap my mind into "lets lose to get a better price"
I think Doc would agree that thinking these things can be and is to me, detrimental to a winning mindset.

I don't think you are being naive at all. You got the horse based on his previous performance and his work outs indicated to you the horse was fit. If anything it just shows their are more than one way to the right answer. I only offered the angle as an explanation for the form reversal.

Quote:

I would have bet it across the board like I bet Giacomo

Bill,

Curious as to what you saw in Giacomo? The only thing I recall (after the fact) was that he was the only horse ( I think) that gained lengths into the final fraction in the SA Derby - which may have been an indication that he would prefer the longer distance of the derby.

Quote:

At the 1C. the BL must be fewer than or equal to the 2C's.......YES
At the 2C, the BL must be equal to or greater than 5............YES
Between the SC and FC, thew loss of lengths should be 0 or <=6...YES
The last race must be an OMF (out the money finish).............YES
If today race distance is equal last race distance the horse gets credited with normal version.

gl45
I looked at the last line for the horse yesterday and wondered if the FDK angle applied (Isn't the FDK angle from Stokes?) but I didn't have Stokes book with me to confirm. I was going to look the angle up when I got home and was going to post the angle this morning, but forgot - no need now, as you saved me the trouble. This was one of the few times that the numbers (speed / pace) and the angles converged on one horse.

gl45 · 08-09-2016, 11:03 AM

You're correct...Stokes....also the FPD known as furlong per day is from Stokes.

Agree, once you have the speed/pace contenders, you'll couple the angles on each horse and select the winner by your estimation. This kind of bombs are few and far between.

Bill V. · 08-11-2016, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Bill,

Curious as to what you saw in Giacomo? The only thing I recall (after the fact) was that he was the only horse ( I think) that gained lengths into the final fraction in the SA Derby - which may have been an indication that he would prefer the longer distance of the derby.

Hi

I don't really remember too many details, I was using Validator
I know I used the SA Derby line
I Remember Giacomowas ranked 3rd on BLBL with a big ML so It was a easy bet

08-08-2016, 06:02 PM	#21
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	delayjf ; I wouldn't consider a drop in odds from 13-1 to 12-1 as significant at all. And the price the horse paid just tells me this doesn't appear to be a betting stable. Also the exacta doesn't seem to be out of line, I would give make the pay off $216 and it paid $233 for the ex., again insignificant. I just don't think the trainer manipulated this horse for the amount it paid. You must remember that horses train pretty much daily even if just walking, jogging, galloping etc., it doesn't have to be a workout to enhance its overall condition, the total effect has a big influence on their condition to the point a horse can turn around in just a week or so.(condition that is) This horse hasn't raced in a couple weeks ,so it had plenty of time to turn around and greatly improve its condition. Taulbot's angle or angles does not necessarily mean these things are intentional. At times the connections don't even know what they'll do and they really error on the side of being overconfident. As handicappers we frequently can place a horse or know if its properly spotted much better that their connections. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-08-2016 at 06:07 PM.

08-08-2016, 07:05 PM	#24
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	read Thanks Mitch and Mark I wish I had done this race live. I don't have the card most days I down load only 1-2 tracks some days I download them all the day this race ran I did not DL PID I can tell just by the 67 speed rating of line 3, The speed ratings other horses are comparable, The 10/1 ML and the fabulous workout I would jump all over the 2 horse at 20/1 let alone at 50/1 I would have bet it across the board like I bet Giacomo

08-09-2016, 07:17 AM	#26
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	? Bill, you aren't naive, you just don't give yourself enough credit. Lets don't forget that horse racing is a business, and if we think that horses run just for owners pleasure we making a big mistake and this race did prove that. Winning pays the bills. 10 race back, fast work at 5 furlongs, strong FPD+ work (if furlong per days is greater than 1.1 the workout is considered very strong and this horse had a 1.153 FPD) and what else this horse had that made him a playable...... what follow is called FDK which is how the horse performed last race, lets see if the horse did pass the test: At the 1C. the BL must be fewer than or equal to the 2C's.......YES At the 2C, the BL must be equal to or greater than 5............YES Between the SC and FC, thew loss of lengths should be 0 or <=6...YES The last race must be an OMF (out the money finish).............YES If today race distance is equal last race distance the horse gets credited with normal version. And what is the name of this great angle, is called Form Darkening!!!! The horse had few other angles as well to make him a contender. To quote Mitch....."Taulbot's angle or angles does not necessarily mean these things are intentional. At times the connections don't even know what they'll do and they really error on the side of being overconfident. As handicappers we frequently can place a horse or know if its properly spotted much better that their connections."..... Trainers run horses, horses just run, and this trainer did fool everybody including you Mitch. Plays like this don't come often but when they show up they are worth a small bet. Good job in see the FDK and BA angles delayjf, you're right about the class drop, the horse was a BA angle based on his third race back. 3 race back was an A angles which suppose to win is 2 race back race but he lost and in the last race he became a BA angle horse which made the horse a stronger contender in the race that just won. Last edited by gl45; 08-09-2016 at 07:19 AM.

08-08-2016, 06:17 PM	#22
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I agree with you Bill on the workouts which weren't available before. That 5 F w/o was very good especially for a cheap horse like this indicating much better form that its chart indicates. This horse was definitely a contender and as Brohammer said " if you make a horse a contender than you should be ready to bet it." Like you Mark & Bill I wish I had seen this prior. I love these cheap races, the payoffs can be good. Ability to pick contenders and form are the keys. Mitch44

08-08-2016, 07:18 PM	#25
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Hi Delayjf I know I am naïve, Doc actually called me that lovingly in the follow up But I just can't wrap my mind into "lets lose to get a better price" I think Doc would agree that thinking these things can be and is to me, detrimental to a winning mindset. That is one of the reason I think Doc went to the best of the last 3 as his guideline, Let the horses ability speak for itself If the horse is capable of running like it did in race 10 and race 3 the trainer, owner, will place it were its ability will allow it a chance to win These are flesh and blood creatures with emotions To me something was wrong, in the last two races but the workouts and quick return to racing leads me to trust that everything is on the up and up

08-09-2016, 08:17 AM	#27
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Just for clarity I wasn't fooled by the horse and would have made it a contender. I don't know if I would have bet it or not. Everyone has the horse after the fact. I do know one thing and that is the last two finishes,beaten lengths and odds would not have scared me off. I posted a bet I made here and the horse paid $108. Now out of 4 contenders one has to reduce it to two horses and I honestly couldn't say if he would have survived the cut. Most would have been scared off by the odds, finishing and beaten length. In order to reap the rewards one has to make the bet. But this was an interesting horse. Darkening of form does exist and a player would indeed be naïve to believe otherwise however it doesn't exist to the extent most players believe in. Good luck with your angles, Mitch44

08-09-2016, 11:03 AM	#29
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	You're correct...Stokes....also the FPD known as furlong per day is from Stokes. Agree, once you have the speed/pace contenders, you'll couple the angles on each horse and select the winner by your estimation. This kind of bombs are few and far between.