New member. Picking the projected paceline.??

[barryt]

The matchup
New Member first post.
Reading the MATCHUP( the book) and Pace makes the race And doing as recommended to handicap 20 races on the matchup and look at results. From past experience, I know that unless I actually am going to bet the races, I tend to "cheat" on the intellectual exercise. So I've been betting@ min wager level
So far 4 races
race 1 E. horse jammed at gate lost all chance
Race 2 lost rider at gate
Race 4 Dq'd
This kinda problems remind me why I quit betting on the horses.
But it's not all bad news.
Race 3 the lone S in a 7 horse race rallied strongly going away and 2 of the 3 pressers caught the 3 E types and the tri paid $190.

It's that type of thing that brings me back to betting on the horses.And so is this.
Race 7 Only 5 horses Lone E horse won so easily, lone presser 2nd, the two S fought it out for 3rd. tri paid ,unbelievable $70. The other horse was a NF maiden in nw2, so really only 4 horses.This was first race at Aqu today Jan 10 if you want to look it up.

I have one question regarding the matchup. [The Hat doesn't waste words with explanations.]
How does he select The projected pace for the races. I've no confidence that the one I select is "correct" and secondly wonder if it is critical as in the Matchup all the horses are "matched against the same pace line.

I used to have allinone from Cynpub and I used the par times as the projected pace, but if no one could run to par it didn't make sense.
So I am starting by selecting the best recent E paceline.
Am I on the right track.?
An informed response would be appreciated.
Tx
Barryt

[viikinki]

Hi barryt!

I am learning the match-up also. Just 40 races in with a minuscule but positive ROI. The Match-Up works IF you really concentrate and use your brains... which I dont do sometimes

Veterans can give more tips but I think projecting the pace is a very important part of the match-up, at least in the beginning.

Originally Posted by barryt

How does he select The projected pace for the races.

The best way to project the pace is just follow Hats advice from the 5 steps of Match-Up. If there is clear E horse, use that. If not, use the 2nd method (FPLR).

Originally Posted by barryt

I've no confidence that the one I select is "correct"

you can always skip races that give your trouble

Originally Posted by barryt

and secondly wonder if it is critical as in the Matchup all the horses are "matched against the same pace line.

Yes, it is critical. You use the projected pace to match-up the horse. Different projected pace, different end result in the match-up because the pacelines you choose for each contedners depends on the projected pace.

[PeteC]

Welcome Barry, I'm sure you will find great insights from many helpful people here as I have.

Here is a link to the 5 Step Approach.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

There is a section on projecting pace. When practice races are posted in this forum, check the pace projections of the other matchers and see how they came up with them. Post yours as well and ask for feedback. It won't take long...

[barryt]

Hi Viikinki
Tx for the responses. I had previously done the7th race at Aqi and I used a paceline NOV 22 of #7 for the 1c and 2c and this gave me the 7 as a contender along with the 1 even money.
after your response,I re-read page 26 and the key words "has the lead" at the 2 nd call. Doing that eliminated #7 as a contender and left just the 1 who won easily.($4) and the 7 ran last..
In your 40 races do you go back and change the paceline to" get" the winner. I think I should keep the "wrong"paceline and Learn from my mistake for future analysis.
Wrt40 races, it's been my experience to do batches of 10. See how you did ,make corrections to your premises/analysis. And start fresh on another until you have 20 consecutive "good " ones. that way the - ve Roi in the beginning does drag down any subsequent successes.
Tx once agin. Your response, while not containing the answer pointed me right where to go to find that answer.
Barryt
PS
Is it me, but I find sprints much easi"er than routes. Do you have a preference.

[barryt]

Originally Posted by PeteC

Welcome Barry, I'm sure you will find great insights from many helpful people here as I have.

Here is a link to the 5 Step Approach.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

There is a section on projecting pace. When practice races are posted in this forum, check the pace projections of the other matchers and see how they came up with them. Post yours as well and ask for feedback. It won't take long...

Tx Pete. I saw that and I have the 1996 book. All that time and it's in as new condition. Wasn't used enough.LOL
Oh did I post in the right place for my question

[viikinki]

Originally Posted by barryt

Hi Viikinki
Tx for the responses. I had previously done the7th race at Aqi and I used a paceline NOV 22 of #7 for the 1c and 2c and this gave me the 7 as a contender along with the 1 even money.
after your response,I re-read page 26 and the key words "has the lead" at the 2 nd call. Doing that eliminated #7 as a contender and left just the 1 who won easily.($4) and the 7 ran last..
In your 40 races do you go back and change the paceline to" get" the winner. I think I should keep the "wrong"paceline and Learn from my mistake for future analysis.
Wrt40 races, it's been my experience to do batches of 10. See how you did ,make corrections to your premises/analysis. And start fresh on another until you have 20 consecutive "good " ones. that way the - ve Roi in the beginning does drag down any subsequent successes.
Tx once agin. Your response, while not containing the answer pointed me right where to go to find that answer.
Barryt
PS
Is it me, but I find sprints much easi"er than routes. Do you have a preference.

Sprints are definitely easier. I dont know why.

Yes, I have a bad habit going back and trying to get the winner after the fact although match-up guru RichieP said NEVER EVER DO THAT! He said we should only look for races we WON and learn the patterns from there.

Nice hit! I didnt play that race. I found a lone early from Aqu R5 Pegasus Diamond and played that. He went to the lead, won easily and gave 10/1 on Betfair No idea how the public didn't get that.

I (we!) SHOULD play only these "easy" races (lone early, dominant early, 3 earlies -> presser wins) but now when I am learning, I just play bunch of races, usually like every race if I have the time. Not a good strategy but maybe I learn faster.

I still have trouble knowing when the leader can go wire-to-wire. Sometimes it seems so obvious he can but then fails. Horse racing is hard because the variance is so high. You can make a good bet but still lose. This can really slow your progress not knowing whether you made a mistake or not.