run styles - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

atkinsrr · 09-01-2013, 05:33 PM

Mark that's exactly what I do...I model the P/L from the winner of the race...I've never done any HCP from results charts ...I have ALL of the follow-ups on my book shelf and refer to them quite often....actually I'm strictly a win, P3 and P4 bettor and aprx 90% of my wagers involve turf races and stakes races.

Segwin · 09-01-2013, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I'm having fun checking the site and working races on my tablet as I (slowly) hop from airport to airport on my way home ...

Ted

Is there a version of RDSS that runs on a tablet Ted?

trotman · 09-01-2013, 07:38 PM

Run Styles Hmmm! How many times do you believe you have the Run Style down pat only to find the darn horse doesn't run to the style, and it's another ticket on the floor. Too much Run Style and nothing in pocket. Run Style IMO is like the flavor of the month sometimes it's in and sometimes it's not. Positional pressure and Velocity pressure and whether they can compete is more an indicator to me, but that's me so carry on.

DontSayDont · 09-02-2013, 06:50 AM

Running Style is determined by the position of the horse at the first call in its wins and very close finishes. It can be speed based but generally a horse run over his head will try initially but if the pace is too fast it will give up and fade. LOOK AT THE HORSE'S POSITION AND BEATEN LENGTHS IN HIS PAST PERFORMANCE RACES AT THE 1ST CALL OF ITS RACES THAT IT WON OR RAN VERY, VERY CLOSE,THAT IS HIS RUNNING STYLE!! Thank you this, it clears up the picture a lot.

Model the pacelines you pick, that is what will be predictive. The Sartin group found that Result chart modeling was useless. It is after the fact. I don’t model the result chart but found looking at what took place in that race, combined with what you said above, made a clearer picture about how the differing styles run in a race. I have paceline models that include every distance and different class levels. I also have models of the top 5 (line score[mine]) horses do as far as win % (each one and then #1 & #2, #1,#2 & #3 etc.) plus average mutual payoff for each. I also have a model on the top 5 that includes things like 1^st call, EP, Last Fraction and other things that I have.

You need to delve into the Sartin library and read for about a month before you waste a bunch of time and money on things that have been disproven 30 years ago. What makes you think I haven’t already done this and am continuing to do so? I have read the Yellow Manual, Paceline Manual and many of the Follow Ups but don’t recall any where seeing the advice you posted above written so clearly as you have. In fact, I love to read. I also read Huey Mahls “The Race is Pace”, Tom Brohamers “Modern Pace Handicapping” (even tried putting it in an excel sheet, but for the life of me, I can’t get a handle on just how all the 50ish numbers it puts out relate to each other. I haven’t played the horses for years and am just used to working with 1/5s of a second.) I also got Pace Makes the Race on advice from someone on this board but am not sure I want to work with numbers that are not what I am accustomed to. I have read most of the posts in the teaching area as well as every new post each day.

You have to establish a information base of good reliable information and most everything from Doc Sartin and Jim Bradshaw is honest and well meant. I would think most all information on horseracing is honest and well meant or you would not have taken time to post your thoughts on this matter, and I appreciate your help.

Back when I used to handicap the horses, Finger Lakes wasn’t a raceino. It was when the stands were full each and every weekend or at least full compared to how many are in the stands today. I remember Woody Stephens sending over a horse, another in the same race shipped in from Canada for another well known trainer, might have been a Grade 1 race if I recall correctly. Back before pace handicapping was popular, Beyer had just released some of his books on “speed handicapping”. Yes I read them also and sold all the books I had on horseracing when I thought I’d no longer be playing the horses. I still have my “Grand Prix of Handicapping” Finalist Mug from 1990, but not long after stopped playing, so I have many new things to learn that have materialized since that era. I didn’t even play on KY Derby Day or Breeders Cup Day which has now become a 2 day affair. Yes, I am way behind but with helpful posts like I received in this thread, I can get caught up and hopefully continue to win as I have done since opening an online betting account. Yes, I have a betting model as well.

Ted Craven · 09-03-2013, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segwin

Is there a version of RDSS that runs on a tablet Ted?

Terry, any tablet which runs MS Windows. See this: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...4&postcount=10

(I used the P&C Google Site Search: 'rdss tablet'

)

cheers,

Ted

Hoof 11 · 09-03-2013, 05:01 PM

I noticed last week that they have the Surface Pro on sale, it was $100 off or something to that effect.

Segwin · 09-04-2013, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

(I used the P&C Google Site Search: 'rdss tablet'

)

cheers,

Ted

Are you trying to tell me something??

09-01-2013, 07:38 PM	#13
trotman Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 259	Run Styles Hmmm! How many times do you believe you have the Run Style down pat only to find the darn horse doesn't run to the style, and it's another ticket on the floor. Too much Run Style and nothing in pocket. Run Style IMO is like the flavor of the month sometimes it's in and sometimes it's not. Positional pressure and Velocity pressure and whether they can compete is more an indicator to me, but that's me so carry on. __________________ "Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall"

09-02-2013, 06:50 AM	#14
DontSayDont Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 106	Running Style is determined by the position of the horse at the first call in its wins and very close finishes. It can be speed based but generally a horse run over his head will try initially but if the pace is too fast it will give up and fade. LOOK AT THE HORSE'S POSITION AND BEATEN LENGTHS IN HIS PAST PERFORMANCE RACES AT THE 1ST CALL OF ITS RACES THAT IT WON OR RAN VERY, VERY CLOSE,THAT IS HIS RUNNING STYLE!! Thank you this, it clears up the picture a lot. Model the pacelines you pick, that is what will be predictive. The Sartin group found that Result chart modeling was useless. It is after the fact. I don’t model the result chart but found looking at what took place in that race, combined with what you said above, made a clearer picture about how the differing styles run in a race. I have paceline models that include every distance and different class levels. I also have models of the top 5 (line score[mine]) horses do as far as win % (each one and then #1 & #2, #1,#2 & #3 etc.) plus average mutual payoff for each. I also have a model on the top 5 that includes things like 1^st call, EP, Last Fraction and other things that I have. You need to delve into the Sartin library and read for about a month before you waste a bunch of time and money on things that have been disproven 30 years ago. What makes you think I haven’t already done this and am continuing to do so? I have read the Yellow Manual, Paceline Manual and many of the Follow Ups but don’t recall any where seeing the advice you posted above written so clearly as you have. In fact, I love to read. I also read Huey Mahls “The Race is Pace”, Tom Brohamers “Modern Pace Handicapping” (even tried putting it in an excel sheet, but for the life of me, I can’t get a handle on just how all the 50ish numbers it puts out relate to each other. I haven’t played the horses for years and am just used to working with 1/5s of a second.) I also got Pace Makes the Race on advice from someone on this board but am not sure I want to work with numbers that are not what I am accustomed to. I have read most of the posts in the teaching area as well as every new post each day. You have to establish a information base of good reliable information and most everything from Doc Sartin and Jim Bradshaw is honest and well meant. I would think most all information on horseracing is honest and well meant or you would not have taken time to post your thoughts on this matter, and I appreciate your help. Back when I used to handicap the horses, Finger Lakes wasn’t a raceino. It was when the stands were full each and every weekend or at least full compared to how many are in the stands today. I remember Woody Stephens sending over a horse, another in the same race shipped in from Canada for another well known trainer, might have been a Grade 1 race if I recall correctly. Back before pace handicapping was popular, Beyer had just released some of his books on “speed handicapping”. Yes I read them also and sold all the books I had on horseracing when I thought I’d no longer be playing the horses. I still have my “Grand Prix of Handicapping” Finalist Mug from 1990, but not long after stopped playing, so I have many new things to learn that have materialized since that era. I didn’t even play on KY Derby Day or Breeders Cup Day which has now become a 2 day affair. Yes, I am way behind but with helpful posts like I received in this thread, I can get caught up and hopefully continue to win as I have done since opening an online betting account. Yes, I have a betting model as well. Last edited by DontSayDont; 09-02-2013 at 06:53 AM.

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09-01-2013, 05:33 PM	#11
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Mark that's exactly what I do...I model the P/L from the winner of the race...I've never done any HCP from results charts ...I have ALL of the follow-ups on my book shelf and refer to them quite often....actually I'm strictly a win, P3 and P4 bettor and aprx 90% of my wagers involve turf races and stakes races.

09-03-2013, 05:01 PM	#16
Hoof 11 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Woodbine Posts: 761	I noticed last week that they have the Surface Pro on sale, it was $100 off or something to that effect.