New Program /workout %

[Bill Lyster]

Mitch:

Appreciate your structured reasoning on this. With just a little understanding from the first posts on this thread I have been able to use a couple of lifetime races who had follow up terrific workouts that confirmed the previous race, whereas I would rarely if ever use a best of 10 race that had never been repeated. In those occasions the winning prices were not great, but helped win DD or Pick 3 bets, mostly in savior mode.

Looking forward to learning more and assisting in the research aspect of same.

Regards,

Bill

[Michael]

Thanks Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Examples:
See post 37 of this thread where I tell you of another angle of improvement, which in RDSS a horses best Tot. Energy was in last race. And to investigate further.
Perfect example was todays 4th at KD the #3 horse last race was its best, Further exam showed it added Blinkers in last. This horse is unknown until it runs at least 3 races w/ blinkers on.
Result: won & Pd. $ 47.04
I admit to not having it as you can't play them all.

However, I did have the 5th based on the topic of this thread:
COMPLETED: b8401-d5c35 KD #5 $5 Exacta 6, 8, WT, 3, 7 none $20.00
$0.00
- $20.00
COMPLETED:1695e-2cc2a KD #5 $2 Exacta 3, 7, WT, 6, 8 none $8.00
$387.08
+ $379.08
Had all 3 in Tri. but did not play it, came 3-8-7 & pd. $598.24 for$.50

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

My key workout horse in the 5th keys a nice DD.
COMPLETED:2a1c0-36737 KD #5 $4 Double 3, 6, 8, WT, 3, 4, 6 none $36.00
$181.88
+ $145.88

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Too many contenders & betting:

How do we handle races with too many contenders using this angle play on workouts, or for that manner on any race?

This occurs in MSW races more so than other races. The reason is they contain many FTS which most can’t handle. My experience is that Md. Clm. are much more easily handled because generally there is more information available to make a more informed decision.

MSW races tend to anchor the start or final race of a P-6 series. They also sandwich them between P3, P4 etc. sequences. However too many contenders can exist in other races such as 2 yr. old’s or young 3 yr. old with few starts, particularity early in the year. Then again, most longshots occur in races for younger horses to include 4 yr. olds as their still developing.

1.Pass the race.
No one has ever lost money by passing a race. There’s a better one coming along in 20 to 30
minutes.

2.Demand higher odds.
Consider the degree of difficulty of the situation. I’m well aware that a horse that’s been laid for a year will only win about 10% of the time, therefore I demand higher odds to compensate for this. Ditto for repeaters that only win about 17 %. Now there are also other qualifiers to increases my percentages. For this workout angle and the race contains several qualified horses consider the risk and reward for the situation. It just doesn’t pay to bet low price horses for the situation.

3.Bet less than your normal bet.
If you bet $10 a race than reduce your bet to perhaps $5 or a $2 fun bet.

4.Bet more horses. Say what?
Bet more horses than usually bet. Spread your bet to include more horses for the situation and degree of difficulty. If a two horse better that bet 3 horses. One can also play more horses and still bet less. If a $10 better, you can bet 4 horses and still reduce the amount bet. Now there are occasions where I do the opposite of this such as, I have a lock on a horse that may pay $ 7 or $ 8 (example) and the connecting race has many contenders, I’ll take a shot because the risk reward is big. That FTS could pay $30, $40 or more and trigger a big DD. If you’re a Matcher and a one horse better I can’t help you, good luck with that. Success at this game requires adaptability, free thinking, ridding oneself or locking into an unchangeable position because you always did it this way. Yes, adapt or perish.

5.Bet structure.
A save bet. I at times will make a save bet providing I can get the correct odds. BTY not just in a race that is contentious or has many qualifiers. And of course, the horse has to be a legit contender and the public is unsure of a favorite. E.g., It‘ll pay $6, $2 to win and $2 on 3 other horses. If the $6 horse wins, I break even however if one of my other 3 win I make money. I never know how I’ll bet a race until about the last 5 minutes or so. At that point I make a decision and get the bet in. Ditto for my Ex and DD combinations as I eliminate short paying ones, again risk reward. Do you ever look at the EX and DD matric (what the combination will pay)? I also do other things but their situation dependent. Now this is very easy with home play but if at the track your decision must be made mush earlier or risk getting shut out.

BTY I’ve trained “The Monkey” in these principles.

Best of luck,

Mitch44

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

RDSS uses the formula: 100 - 6/65*100 = 100 - 9.23 = 91% rounded.

A horse with 6th fastest workout time out of 65 horses that day and distance worked faster than 91% of the rest.

Then again, a horse who finished 1 out of 11 also gets about a 91%. Of these 2 different horses - or the same horse on 2 different days - if they both worked over 5 furlongs but 6/65 got a speed rating (measure of final workout time) of 80 (slower time) and 1/11 got a SR of 90 (faster time) -- which indicates the better effort? The 6/65 effort worked faster than 59 other horses, while the 1/11 worked faster than only 10 others. Does it matter?

I ask because this is a discussion Mitch and I have been having and I am wondering if the relative presentation of such figures can be tweaked. This readout has been in RDSS for years and Mitch is presenting new ways of using it to measure improvement, particularly in Maiden and longer layoff scenarios.

Ted

If I may put in my 2 cents here.

I'm in favor of this formula:

workout rating % = ((total in field minus rank) / (total in field minus 1)) * 100

I think the WR% and the # of horses next to the WR% will say it all.

Mike

[Mitch44]

Mike,

Not sure as in our previous discussions all horses should get an adjustment. Some should not. If a horse has a 1 /11 or 1 /4 should it even get an adjustment? I say no.

I tried to rectify this to no avail. Mine would or could make an 8 point adjustment which IMO destroys the main intent of the number, even a minor adjustment because it gets compounded quickly by number of horses beaten. And I've seen w/o's like 10/132. Far too much! An old early Sartin adjustment for Variants called a Meridian works.

Ted has a solution which I concur with that solves the problem. Assignment on the amount of adjustment is all that remains. It can't destroy the basic rating or intended purpose. It'll be reflected in the next update.

Of course, this is proprietary to Ted and RDSS. One does not need to know the formula to employ it effectively.

Mitch44

[MJS6916]

Mitch44,

It looks like based on your last post
we’re not disagreeing much.

I should have added this before:
What I’m proposing is that the fastest work
of that day/track/distance should read 100
regardless of the number of runners that day.

Mike

[Mitch44]

It looks like based on your last post we’re not disagreeing much." I don't believe we are disagreeing much. It will be tweaked based on some other concerns and to produce a better and more efficient rating number. However, it still won't get a 100% rating majority of the time, not impossible but really highly unlikely.

A 100 rating destroys the theory behind the whole concept. IMHO.

Anyone in disagreement can see the rating for that work and adjust it to their liking. More work that adds to the handicapping process and compounds a chance for error. In any formula and or procedure those that zig, and zag will never achieve the same results as a consistent procedure will obtain.

Additionally, if one makes a 1 ranking an automatic 100 you won't really be getting the full value of it because of the tweaks within the final number. Perhaps it should really be 104 etc. as an example. In other words, how many tweaked points were added?

I doubt if anyone was really paying attention to this particular rating much anyway as only a couple were given, unlike the changes coming where their all rated. They can use the other SR that have all the patterns with them if they choose or choose to ignore it. I myself know they're not as proficient because their based on a clock and not against real horses such as a mini race or if 132 worked a gigantic, humongous race. They don't add a variant or consider one and because workouts take place at different tracks time can be very much distorted by the speed of the track. The clock doesn't account for this. In the % rating it competes against other horses and their all performing at the same tack and relatively short time frame for the % rating. The speed of the track is the same for all.

All I can say is it's like anything in that if your uncomfortable with it don't use it. However, it is destined to become a better mousetrap. Hope to see you onboard when it sails Mike.

Mitch44

[MJS6916]

Mitch44,

I trust Ted that he won't just put anything into RDSS.

So I'll definitely give it a look. Keep feeding that monkey.


Mike