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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-10-2018, 12:12 PM   #11
Bill Lyster
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Did Gene ever wake up!? Curious as to his version of time and splits?

Thanks,
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Old 04-11-2018, 08:47 AM   #12
Mitch44
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ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ


These splits are about 7 feet longer per split. How much of an adjustment is that? Well it depends on what you use as to the number of feet per beaten length or any other formula being used. Whatever is used would have to be used on the actual horses racing in the Derby for an accurate comparison. All horses would have to be treated equal for accuracy.Of course a good argument is many of races are won or loss by even one length or less. Which is fine as long as their all treated the same.


I chose what I believed was the biggest effect on the race which was and will be the track itself or variant. Even Sartin said many times that many races are won without any adjustments and handicappers are adjustment happy while over adjusting. He later cut adjustments to half.


IMO the biggest take from this whole thing is comparative handicapping when one considers Mendelson splits and time to older horses on the same track and same day. A 3 yr. old just shouldn't be able to do that and signals a freak. For a purse of $10,000,000 I think Thunder Snow race was legit.


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Old 05-03-2018, 10:56 PM   #13
yort2000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
From Trakus charts:


Attachment 45981


Now if I can wake up Gene Rayburn from his yearly "hibernation" to assist in adjusting the fractional times for the "no run up" and metric times...

Quick Adjustments for Mendelssohn:

23.39 46.44 1:10.34 and mile fractions of 1:34.92

GeneRayburn here. I forgot my password and I guess I no longer have the email address associated with that account either. I did get a password reset email for this account when I was plunking in the email addresses I still have in the lost password form. I must have set this account up when I forgot my password sometime previously.

I will put my calculated fractions for the past four UAE Derbies as that is when they switched to "real" dirt. I adjust the first 400m by subtracting 2 seconds for the run up. Just like my password, I don't remember why I went to 2 seconds, but it was because of long ago research that I did that is now forgotten, but I'll stick with it. I then convert that time into an average speed for the 400m and project that average speed to 2 furlongs or the first 1/4. As Mitch44 pointed out, you can then use the splits from all subsequent calls. I.E. I use the actual split difference from 400m to 800m and calculate the average speed for that 400m segment and project that average speed to the next 2 furlongs. I do this for each split 400m segment. I do a simple deceleration calculation for the final 300m segment (1600m to 1900m) assuming the horses run the first 200m slightly faster than the last 100m.

Ok, a lot of explaining for this:

2018 23.22 46.73 1:10.28 1:34.86 1:47.51
2017 22.93 46.47 1:12.28 1:37.26 1:50.04
2016 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.47 1:50.53
2015 24.14 48.26 1:12.67 1:38.12 1:50.35

Are these numbers exact? No. But they give a rough guideline and with that, WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! That sustained move from the 1/2 through the 1m based on the 46.73 1/2 time is amazing in relation to what horses were able to do here previously. This horse is in another league than anything that ran here before, regardless of track bias or variant. What does that mean? Who knows with all the negatives (shipping so close to race date, no time to acclimate, poor trainer and jockey stats for American dirt races). But, I will not be leaving him off the top of my superfecta tickets.
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Old 05-03-2018, 11:22 PM   #14
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Now as far a track variant. Yes, the track was running faster than any previous year, but by how much. For this I'll look at the actual times for the Dubai World Cup since UAE switched to real dirt. I did not convert these from the metric system to the imperial system nor adjust for the lack of a runup as we are just comparing year to year. (Race Splits, not individual horse splits.)

2018 25.73 50.43 1:13.89 1:37.21 2:01.385
2017 24.81 48.28 1:12.93 1:37.86 2:02.159
2016 25.39 48.98 1:12.57 1:37.25 2:01.836
2015 25.64 49.45 1:12.77 1:37.99 2:03.241

As you can see, Thunder Snow this year was the fastest dirt time for this race. However, he was allowed to get by with the slowest first fractions ever on the dirt. This is in sharp contrast to the UAE derby which has the fastest 3/4 and mile time by far of any previous version of that race on the dirt. So, was the track faster than previous, probably yes, but by 15+ lengths. Absolutely not.

We can also look to Mubtaahij who happend to run in the last 3 Dubai World cups.

2018 2:02.451
2017 2:03.816
2016 2:02.522

I thought the track was slower in 2017 and that is why I used Thunder Snow in the 2nd through 4th spots in my superfecta. Unfortunately, he pulled the ole "high ho silver away" bit out of the gate at the Kentucky Derby last year. His talent has been proven though as he has been running very well at UAE this year.

So, yes the track was running faster this year, but not enough to account for the monster effort shown by Mendellsohn in the UAE Derby. The only question is can he run back to that monster race.
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Old 05-03-2018, 11:40 PM   #15
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As an aside, I went back to look what I said about the UAE Derby last year to make sure I wasn't BS'ing about thinking the track was slower last year and I only had posts from 2016 about Lani (who I didn't like). I guess I have been in a really long hibernation. No wonder I forgot my password.
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Old 05-03-2018, 11:50 PM   #16
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Oh, I forgot to mention in my UAE Derby splits above, I convert it to a 1 1/8 mile time for comparison to the other prep races.
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Old 05-04-2018, 12:04 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by yort2000 View Post
GeneRayburn here. I forgot my password and I guess I no longer have the email address associated with that account either. I did get a password reset email for this account when I was plunking in the email addresses I still have in the lost password form. I must have set this account up when I forgot my password sometime previously.

I will put my calculated fractions for the past four UAE Derbies as that is when they switched to "real" dirt. I adjust the first 400m by subtracting 2 seconds for the run up. Just like my password, I don't remember why I went to 2 seconds, but it was because of long ago research that I did that is now forgotten, but I'll stick with it. I then convert that time into an average speed for the 400m and project that average speed to 2 furlongs or the first 1/4. As Mitch44 pointed out, you can then use the splits from all subsequent calls. I.E. I use the actual split difference from 400m to 800m and calculate the average speed for that 400m segment and project that average speed to the next 2 furlongs. I do this for each split 400m segment. I do a simple deceleration calculation for the final 300m segment (1600m to 1900m) assuming the horses run the first 200m slightly faster than the last 100m.

Ok, a lot of explaining for this:

2018 23.22 46.73 1:10.28 1:34.86 1:47.51
2017 22.93 46.47 1:12.28 1:37.26 1:50.04
2016 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.47 1:50.53
2015 24.14 48.26 1:12.67 1:38.12 1:50.35

Are these numbers exact? No. But they give a rough guideline and with that, WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! That sustained move from the 1/2 through the 1m based on the 46.73 1/2 time is amazing in relation to what horses were able to do here previously. This horse is in another league than anything that ran here before, regardless of track bias or variant. What does that mean? Who knows with all the negatives (shipping so close to race date, no time to acclimate, poor trainer and jockey stats for American dirt races). But, I will not be leaving him off the top of my superfecta tickets.
When I first looked at these numbers and calculations, I didn't believe it. I figured there had to be a timing malfunction. So, l loaded up the 2018 replay video and synced it with the 2017 replay video and the times matched up. I then synced it with the 2016 replay video and those times matched up as well. In both cases, the winners of the races the previous years would have been back with 2nd and 3rd place horses this year when Mendellsohn hit the wire. So, no timing malfunction.
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Old 05-04-2018, 12:25 AM   #18
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Hello Gene:


Like you I believe this horse is a freak. And if he doesn't win the Derby he'll be heard from later if remaining sound. Even many Derby winners have never won another race. Sometime one race can ruin a horse forever.


As 3 yr. olds they all have to answer questions, for me he has less to answer than most in here. Such as distance, shipping etc.


I'll definitely have a few bucks on him.


Good luck to you in the Derby.


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Old 05-04-2018, 02:00 PM   #19
Bill Lyster
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Gene

Many thanks for your work. Marathon wise, this looks really great even with the 3-4 and 19 going for the lead, all of whom should be cooked by the top of the stretch.

Thanks again,

Bill
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