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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-17-2018, 04:38 PM | #21 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
In nine races showing, the #10 horse has never broke better than 4th and has never been on the lead at the first call. In nine races showing, the #3 horse has never broke worse than 3rd, broke 1st 5 times and has been on the lead at the first call 4 times. I’m not surprised that the #3 horse was in front of the #10 horse. Also, based on the #10’s horses last two races, at the two lowest class levels it has ever run for and breaking from the nine post, today’s race fit those races well. With better early speed inside of it, the #10 horse had its’ best break ever, breaking 3rd, got good position at the first call being 3rd just a length and a half behind, being 3rd at the second call behind by just 1 length and wore down the leader from there to earn a neck victory. A very nice “early presser” style race. Finally, man doesn’t make class levels. Horses, based on their performances, make class levels. A horse that constantly runs up the track for $10,000 and then runs good races when lowered to the $5,000 level is telling the trainer at which class level it runs best. Understanding class levels, including conditions, is an important factor. I’m not aware of the many unknowns associated with class levels. I can see, however, where not understanding class levels and conditions might make one feel as though they were unknowns. My suggestion is this, if class levels and conditions are unknown to you, take the time to learn what they all mean. State Bred races, as an example, are “restricted” races. They are restricted to horses bred in the state in which the race is being run. I think this is common knowledge. If these races are unknown factors for you, take the time to learn about them. Philly Park (now PARX) used to run the “Gray Ghost Handicap” at Halloween. This was a “restricted” race. The restriction? Every horse entered had to be gray or roan. This was clearly stated right in the conditions. Any “restricted” race has the restriction clearly stated in the conditions AND the race is noted as a restricted race in the PP’s. What you need to know about restricted races is that they are lesser races. A $10,000 race that IS NOT restricted is better than a $10,000 race that IS restricted. Why? Because a restricted race is NOT OPEN to all who wish to enter, whereas a race that is not restricted IS OPEN to all who wish to enter. Therefore, the quality of a non-restricted race is better. I can’t say anything about races with big casino purses, simply because I’m not sure which races they are. Here’s where I can learn something.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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01-17-2018, 06:08 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I love this game which requires the bet be made before the gates open. Its the difference of opinions that make this game or merry go round turn.
The understanding of the class factor which is a basic fundamental of this game can enhance the decision making process greatly. It also explains why horses run poorly or don't win at certain distances, surfaces and especially man made class designations. I offered two better class concepts that outperform man made designations in my previous post that are contained within RDSS. POH and CR or CR+ It greatly helps to evaluate layoffs and dropdowns etc. That advice can be taken or ignored which is fine also. Good skill, Mitch44 |
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