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06-17-2010, 07:46 AM | #1 |
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Another 20 race cycle
Hello again everyone!
Another twenty races have been wagered on by me so again I am posting my read outs. I made a little bit of change to my bet sheet as I took some things from the old WDF from the follow ups. Like the follow ups I have provided my read outs from all the bets I made. I add to my models whether or not I bet the race or not. I know a standard is to keep top 5 primary line score, but in the event that I have more than that I have not seen much harm in keeping more. This is of course my observation and what I am currently doing but that does not mean it will work for anyone else. A couple of cliffnotes from this twenty race cycle: PEN 6/10 CT 6/10 PEN 6/15 MNR 6/15 Races 20 Won 7 W % 35% Bets 100.00 Ret 144.30 ROI 44.3% I won one more than my previous twentry race cycle, but with the help of the models I was able to hit 5 of my 7 winners at over a $12 mutual with 2 of those winners over $25 which allowed me to hit the positive ROI. A bit of reflection after this twenty races. I am considering the possibility of modeling PEN but taking a minor hiatus from betting it. Looking back at my last two twenty race cycles I am having difficulty at getting any winners from there. My models for PEN are showing just as much confusion. Nothing seems to be sticking much there which makes it tough to find some good horses to invest in. The only problem with this is that I primarily can wager only on weeknights (soon to only be Tuesday nights guaranteed!) and to ignore PEN completely would take away a lot of opportunities. So maybe a temporary hitaus while still modeling will show me something. So if you take a look at this I hope you enjoy looking at it. I sure am having a good time compiling all these and seeing how models can pick out some winners or even if it is a loss and something in the winner refines the model even more. Derek |
06-17-2010, 09:06 AM | #2 |
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Derek,
I like the fact that you are keeping your wager decision summary distinct from your factor models (which is what I think I hear you saying). It's not a horse's fault that it is top 2 TE in the race mix but held at 2-1 and an underlayed bet, perhaps a PASS. Re keeping 5 lines in an Analysis set, versus more or less lines, if your model is a Win model and you retain horses who you do not expect to Win but still wish to see for in-the-money bets (e.g. horse returning from long layoff, first time new surface, first time routing, etc), consider eliminating lines for those horses and recording the ranks, magnitudes and variances (the various factors) from the remaining horses whom you consider win contenders. More often than not, for me, these types are ranked 4th or 5th on BL/BL anyway, so no great loss leaving them in. But for example, when a high CR horse recently not running so well returns today perhaps trying something new (or is simply fresh), it's consistently chosen line or lines may rank it Top 2 BL/BL and Top VDC but your records show you (as mine do) that returning after, say, 180 days doesn't win at first asking frequently enough, at good enough odds, to warrant betting to win. Here, you could consider leaving that horse out of your Win model export, resulting in sometimes 4 lines, sometimes 6, etc. The only other thing I can think of regarding having a model comprising entries from Analysis sets with varying number of lines, is that if you observe gaps of BL/BL where (as an example) a #1 BL/BL value of 2 points (gap of 2 BL points) and determine that a 2 point gap over the next BL tier is long-term indicative of a strong contender, having variable numbers of lines will affect the BL points and thus the gaps between tiers (as BL points are weighted sums of Primary Factor ranks). If you don't observe these gaps, not so much concern in varying the number of lines entered in an Analysis set (but that's what Column #H is for in the Excel outputs - # Lines Ranked). But consider the extra value in having a stronger opinion of a top ranked contender - PASS if too low odds (often the case), hedge it in a multi-horse bet, wheel it over other contenders or counter-energy runners in an Exacta, single it in other vertical or horizontal bets, etc. Blindly betting in the Win pool against a strongly ranked, low odds contender is a rather brute force method which I have found pretty costly over the years. Just some ideas. Congratulations in developing the habit of keeping these records and posting them for commentary! Very inspiring. Ted
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06-17-2010, 09:12 AM | #3 |
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Is this what you export into the excel program or is this more detailed and required much more imput from you?
Patrick |
06-17-2010, 03:50 PM | #4 | |
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Quote:
Your "model" for a particular track should show the "WINNERS ONLY" (along with their information) all in ONE spreadsheet. Looking at the model in this fashion points out which piece(s) on information on the "winners" appears to be the most predictive in an easy to read fashion. Also, you should keep the WINNERS MODEL broken down by not just track, but by distance, surface and sex, at the barest minimum.
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06-17-2010, 03:56 PM | #5 | |
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Quote:
Do I understand correctly that you are not a proponent of throwing out the top horse or the top two horses on the bl/bl and going to the third, fourth or fifth horse just for the sake of getting odds?
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06-17-2010, 03:57 PM | #6 |
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My understanding is: we resolved this issue with his previous 20 race cycle and ZIP file set, where I asked the same question, and he answered that he was not supplying here his Win model spreadsheet, only the inputs (i.e. the outputs from single races). In this set, he's supplying a Wager Decision sheet, but still not the Win decision models for a given track and distance/surface/etc breakdown. His prerogative.
If I'm wrong, I hope Derek will clarify. Ted
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06-17-2010, 04:02 PM | #7 | |
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Quote:
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06-17-2010, 05:35 PM | #8 |
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Ted is right in his explanation.
I do have all that, but I did not see much use in providing my model seeing how we all pick lines differently. The main reason for providing the individual sheets was just for anyone who wanted to compare lines and maybe see why we may have picked or not picked the same lines. The idea behind this was just taken from the reading of the follow ups. I do not recall ever someone having their models published so I have not as of yet. I will certainly try to clean up my models and supply them with the next set of twenty races if you feel it will help. And to Patrick, yes these are from the "Export to Excel" I then will take those and "catalog" them by Distance / Surface (few other things that I dont use right now) for future wagering decisions. Back to your other post Ted, I may go back through and see what happens if I do top 5 only and see if my results differ; that is a decision I keep jumping back and forth. But if I have a 6th/7th line score total with a 1 (in like an early or late field) I dont want to hide it especially if the model designates that as a leading indicator. The BL/BL point spread is definitely something I will look into. However the different types of bets you are suggesting I am going to put on the backburner for a little bit just because I want to focus on winners and the factors which they come from. Whether I bet or not is a different story like you said if the odds are to low, but once I can figure out those better I will definitely try some of those wagering strategies. Last edited by hansend; 06-17-2010 at 05:41 PM. |
06-18-2010, 05:19 AM | #9 | |
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Quote:
Contender selection as well as line selection for those contenders is not only the most important part of any methodology that depends on a single line comparison for each contender in order to reach a decision on which horse is best and worth betting, but one that is by far the least discussed, unfortunately, and is a subject for another discussion. As Ted has suggested, what you decide to make public or decide not to make public is your prerogative, I was of the opinion that you were looking for help with modeling, thus my previous post in response to yours. I apologize for any intrusion you may have felt as a result of my post to you.
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06-18-2010, 07:25 AM | #10 |
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Thats quite alright For The Lead, no offense taken. I can handle constructive criticism.
If it is not of any use to anyone thats fine with me, if it leads to a discussion about selecting pace lines like you mentioned or any type of teaching points, great. If more information is needed to be of assistance then I certainly can do that as well. I dont have a problem with being the "example" good or bad. I think more than anything it forces me to take more responsibility in my wagering by telling myself I am going to post these results no matter what and I want to make sure I am showing progress and absorbing what people have to offer in terms of assistance and guidance. |
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