Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-12-2013, 11:18 PM   #1
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
More on EARLY...

Some time ago I wrote a post (actually, a new thread) called “Bill V goes the extra mile”. Here is a link so you can read it. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8969

Before you go there you should also read this post. Here, I am going to go over two races, one posted by Ted and the other is one I am posting. BOTH, are similar to Bill V.’s race. Rather than me duplicating Ted’s words, I’m just going to cut and paste what he said, here.

“Didn't think that the Lone Early #1 Midnight Aria had what it took to survive the 3rd fraction challenge from both the #2 and #7, but it was an instructive lesson in what a Lone Early can do: slow things down then draw on the savings when challenged in the stretch, which is precisely what happened.
In retrospect (i.e. where everything is clearer ), I should have examined the last race Tandem between more than half the field - the Plate Trial - particularly in light of Midnight Aria being a LONE EARLY - truly: no one else wants the lead (check it out).
In the Plate Trial (last Tandem), Midnight Aria dueled through 8 of 9 furlongs with one another horse, who is not running today and as a result of which duel, lost by (only) 1 3/4 lengths. (BTW, same scenario with its 2nd and 3rd races back; basically, he's begging for a scenario where he will not get a pressured trip). Is it reasonable to presume (if the horse is still fit) that he will run that fast again today with no one to pressure him - or will he ease up a bit while still controlling the pace? And have just a smidgin more left in the tank than in his previous 3 races?

I cannot remember how many long prices I have cashed on by expecting a Tandem reversal today given the absence of a previously impactful horse (a lot).

As I said - a retrospective - BUT the value is in at least ASKING the above questions - and knowing that you can find that kind of info somewhere in RDSS! At 17-1, you get a lot of slack for trying to compose wagers which include that horse somehow, especially since the 2nd and 3rd place horses were already covered by 'less astute' analysis.”


Very nice work, especially where Ted looked back beyond the last race! Outstanding! Nobody said handicapping was easy. Nobody said there wasn’t some “work” involved.

The only thing I will comment on is where Ted said,” In retrospect (i.e. where everything is clearer ”. Everything Ted said here was just as clear PRE-RACE as it was POST-RACE…IF YOU WERE LOOKING FOR IT!

After reading Ted’s post, I went and looked at the race. Here is my “original” screen showing the lines I used and how the contenders running styles compare. To me, this would be the first indication that there is a possibility that one of the contenders could go wire to wire.

Name:  queens plate orig.JPG
Views: 836
Size:  110.8 KB

This was a nice winner @$35.20.

Ok, on to the race I wanted to post. It was the 2nd r ace at PEN today.
I’m not going to run down the whole field, but instead, focus on the winner, #7. Here are the PP's for the winner.

Name:  pen27.JPG
Views: 799
Size:  145.6 KB

It broke it’s maiden in its’ 4th start at two years old for $10,000. In it’s next race vs. NW2L for $12,500, it ran a very respectful 2nd. This was followed by another race vs. NW2L for $16,000, where the horse showed good early speed before fading. What is important here is, the horse was “OFF” for almost 5 months after this race. Again, it is important to note that this was the horses last race as a two year old. Why is that important? I have written about young horses getting injuries and time OFF being required to heal the injury. This seems to fill the bill.

When the horse comes back to the races it is entered in a $13,000 “OPEN” claiming race. Although the claiming price is less than the horses last race before the layoff, it is actually a more difficult race because it is against “OPEN” (unlimited multiple winners) company.
This was followed by a drop in class to $8,000 vs. NW2L. Good placement. It showed some early speed and faded. Is there a reason it did not run better? The track was ‘sloppy’ that day and since this is the only time the horse has run on an off track, we can assume it did not care for the footing that day.
The horses last race was, again, vs. $8,000 claimers. This time it was against “state bred” horses.
What is important here is this. I went back and looked at that race. There were no less than 2 other early horses in that race that were more “dedicated” to making the lead than this horse. It was to this horses credit that it chased another horse for a half mile (67% of the race) in that race before fading. Remember, early horses want the lead. In most cases, if they can’t get the lead they fade. This is no different than a closer that cannot get the pace it needs and does not close.
So we have a horse that has had 3 races back after a layoff, one of which can be dismissed for an off track. We have a horse that was “outgunned” for the lead in its’ last race and, today, IS the lone “dedicated” early horse in the race. The result? A wire to wire win @ $22.20.

I’m sure my following comment could be disputed, but you don’t get “early” winners looking for a good 3rd fraction. That is for closers… when you are looking for a closer. With early horses, it is the early fractions you should be looking for, along with other “dedicated” early horses in the race.

In both of these examples, just like Bll V.’s race, it was the extra handicapping by going back and looking at previous races that made these winners playable.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2013, 02:33 AM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Early 3rd fractions

Hi FTL

Great lesson and a very nice win for you.

Everything is clear. However I must question why you say this...

Quote:
I’m sure my following comment could be disputed, but you don’t get “early” winners looking for a good 3rd fraction. That is for closers… when you are looking for a closer. With early horses, it is the early fractions you should be looking for, along with other “dedicated” early horses in the race.
Here is a race I posted Thursday from Delaware Park The Stymie
Its a 50,000 Overnight Stakes race

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...64&postcount=1

Horse # 5 to me is a lone early, It almost always gets the lead.
Its was a good bet to get the lead again in the Stymie.
I have marked in the result chart. It did get a 1.5 length lead in the first
two fractions. But what is keeping this early horse from winning?
Now I am not a very experienced class handicapper so I leave that part of the equitation to you. What I can see Its poor 3rd fractions are keeping it from winning.

Name:  stymiH5 (1).PNG
Views: 1483
Size:  116.7 KB

Name:  chartstym.PNG
Views: 1440
Size:  54.7 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2013, 05:02 AM   #3
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi FTL

Everything is clear. However I must question why you say this... "I’m sure my following comment could be disputed, but you don’t get “early” winners looking for a good 3rd fraction. That is for closers… when you are looking for a closer. With early horses, it is the early fractions you should be looking for, along with other “dedicated” early horses in the race."

Here is a race I posted Thursday from Delaware Park The Stymie
Its a 50,000 Overnight Stakes race

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...64&postcount=1

Horse # 5 to me is a lone early, It almost always gets the lead.
Its was a good bet to get the lead again in the Stymie.
I have marked in the result chart. It did get a 1.5 length lead in the first
two fractions. But what is keeping this early horse from winning?
Now I am not a very experienced class handicapper so I leave that part of the equitation to you. What I can see Its poor 3rd fractions are keeping it from winning.

Attachment 34639

Attachment 34638
Hi Bill,

Explaining how to evaluate early horses is not an easy thing to do and that is why I used Ted's example and my example. In both cases it was not the 3rd fraction from some previous race that lead to those horses winning their respective races. It was the early fractions and the "make up" or "match up" of the horses in the races. Looking back at previous races and the make up or match up in those races also provided more information that ultimately had a bearing on today's races.

Regarding the race at Delaware and the #5 horse. Is it the lack of 3rd fraction that keeps it from winning or is it early pressure that keeps it from winning? If you look over the PP's for the horse, you will see that in 7 early calls this horse has been "fighting" for the lead. Fighting for the lead at those early calls tends to tire a horse, leaving it little for the 3rd fraction.
In its' last race after almost 5 months OFF, it fought for the lead, not only at the first two calls, but also to the stretch call. There is no doubt in my mind that this race was very good for the horse's conditioning, but the race being just 15 days ago, the question becomes, how tiring was that effort after being OFF?

Now in that same race there was another "E7" horse. This horse did not stand out as an early horse just looking at the PP's. Here is the horse.

Name:  del52.JPG
Views: 787
Size:  156.7 KB

To get a true picture of the horse and how it performs at a route distance, let's first clear away all the sprint races. Now let's look at what is left. It becomes clearer that when this horse is in a route race it will be on the lead or trying for the lead.

Let's take a look at this horse. Between lines 3 and 4 the horse was off for about 4 and a half months. When they brought the horse back, they put it in an overnight stake. Did they bring it back in a sprint or a route? Why does that matter? If you look down the PP's, I know you will see a win in a sprint, but what type of race do you really think they are trying to win? I believe they are trying to win a route. And in trying to win a route, the horse will run early to win. So, the first race back being a sprint tells me they are trying to put speed into the horse. That is an old training tactic, just like running a sprint horse in a route in order to build up its' stamina. It ran 3rd on the inner track at AQU. There is always the possibility that it didn't like the surface. I know I can't be sure about that. Then it went into an ALW race with a NW$3X, which is "non winners of 'X' amount of money, three times, other than" condition. In that race it showed speed for 1/2 mile. Consider this. The first call is just one of four calls, BUT it makes up 1/2 of the race!! The horse tried for the lead to that point and faded. The next thing they did was enter it in another sprint race, no doubt for the same reason as the sprint the first race back after the layoff. Then it was back to a route, today. The one thing you know is, it will run up on or close to the lead today. It has had three specific conditioning races after a layoff.

All trainers do not use the same training methods. Like the #5 horse as an example. The trainer thought his horse was ready the first time out after it's layoff. A look at that race shows the trainer wasn't necessarily wrong. It fought for the lead from the start all the way to the stretch call. It wasn't that the horse wasn't ready, it was the make up or match up of the race that kept it from winning. Had the horse been in a race where there were no other early horses to pressure it, it is likely it would have won.

In the case of the #2 horse, it appears the trainer believed his horse needed some conditioning after its' layoff, so he planned the conditioning races as he saw fit. First a sprint, then a route. After seeing how it performed in the route, he decided on another sprint. One thing is for sure. You could certainly expect a better race today than the horse showed in its' route race two back. As it turned out, the #2 stalked the #5 to the top of the stretch where it finally wore the #5 horse down and then went on to win.

Hope this helps.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2013, 07:03 AM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
quitter

Hi FTL
Yes your comments and illustrations helps
Yes I see the 2 is a Early Presser when running routes The 5 is a Early 7
So in this match up who will win Isn't the third fraction the difference ?


You wrote
Quote:
In the case of the #2 horse, it appears the trainer believed his horse needed some conditioning after its' layoff, so he planned the conditioning races as he saw fit. First a sprint, then a route. After seeing how it performed in the route, he decided on another sprint. One thing is for sure. You could certainly expect a better race today than the horse showed in its' route race two back. As it turned out, the #2 stalked the #5 to the top of the stretch where it finally wore the #5 horse down and then went on to win.
I have switched the PP tabs to add the LPR or FFR = 3rd fraction readings
For horse #2 I have crossed out the sprint races like you did
It runs third fractions of ...
82.8, 79.8, 90.5 80,4 92,1 and it uses its energy more toward the sustained side of the Early Late graph
The 5 is much more of a early energy horse. It did run a 92.5 and a 91 3rd fractions in lines 5 and 6 But look at its last 4 races.
It ran 3rd fractions of only 77.7 80.5 57,7 71.5
These are 5000 claimer 3rd fractions ! The #2 in when in form will kill the 5 because the 5 seems to have lost its 3rd fraction ability. I agree that
once a early horse loses its lead it fades or in the 5's case quits
But it seems to me that the 5 just is unable to compete past the 2nd call
and its losing its lead because of its inability to carry its energy into the 3rd fraction.



After all I doubt there are many here who can see what you do and just by eye ball can tell the 5 will quit.
The rest of us depend on the Sartin programs and the Sartin programs give us a readout and ranking of all three fractions. Actually It did a good job in this race although it had the 2 much to far back in the first two fractions.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2013, 10:29 AM   #5
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
screen shots

Screens for the above post

Name:  2 ponzi.PNG
Views: 724
Size:  104.5 KB

Name:  quitter.PNG
Views: 742
Size:  108.5 KB

Name:  ponzi segs.PNG
Views: 745
Size:  39.9 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2013, 11:33 PM   #6
atkinsrr
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
Thx for the post on the Queens Plate...would like to add a comment, I am an habitual lone "E" bettor..as Brohammer stated in "Modern Pace Handicapping" The lone "E' is the best bet in racing...in that particular race I hid the #7 at 8/5 and bet the #1 (16-1) and the #2 (6-1) both to win. My models show me that when an early horse has a number 1 in the EPR column and all other corollaries are high numbers 4 and over they usually don't win but if the horse has a 1, 2, or 3 in some of the other corollaries preferably tt he and fx...look out.....the horse is dangerous...especially routes...the betting crowd seems to always throw out route horses who are "e" horses ....they sure pay good
atkinsrr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2013, 12:27 AM   #7
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi FTL
Yes your comments and illustrations helps
Yes I see the 2 is a Early Presser when running routes The 5 is a Early 7
So in this match up who will win Isn't the third fraction the difference ?


You wrote


I have switched the PP tabs to add the LPR or FFR = 3rd fraction readings
For horse #2 I have crossed out the sprint races like you did
It runs third fractions of ...
82.8, 79.8, 90.5 80,4 92,1 and it uses its energy more toward the sustained side of the Early Late graph
The 5 is much more of a early energy horse. It did run a 92.5 and a 91 3rd fractions in lines 5 and 6 But look at its last 4 races.
It ran 3rd fractions of only 77.7 80.5 57,7 71.5
These are 5000 claimer 3rd fractions ! The #2 in when in form will kill the 5 because the 5 seems to have lost its 3rd fraction ability. I agree that
once a early horse loses its lead it fades or in the 5's case quits
But it seems to me that the 5 just is unable to compete past the 2nd call
and its losing its lead because of its inability to carry its energy into the 3rd fraction.



After all I doubt there are many here who can see what you do and just by eye ball can tell the 5 will quit.
The rest of us depend on the Sartin programs and the Sartin programs give us a readout and ranking of all three fractions. Actually It did a good job in this race although it had the 2 much to far back in the first two fractions.
I started this thread following your lead in doing some “in depth” handicapping by looking at more than just a running line. By looking back at a previous race (or races) in an effort to gain a better understanding of how a horse will run today. More recently, Ted posted up a similar effort and when I came across yet another similar circumstance I thought it a good idea to share it, so others will read about your race, Ted’s race and the race last night. In all three cases, taking the time to really handicap and dig into not only today’s race, but previous races paid off with good priced winners.

With respect to the Delaware Park race, you made a good point by comparing the 3rd fraction of two early type horses. If comparing the 3rd fraction of two early horses can help anyone, then I am in favor of it. That is analyzing a “race within a race”. Further, if my critique of the #2 horse in that race can lead anyone to the point where they recognize that horse as an early horse, then “mission accomplished”. All early horses are not as easy to recognize as the #5 horse in that race. Obviously the line maker saw something in the #2 horse that the public couldn’t see. The line maker made the #2 horse the ML favorite at 2/1. The public sent the horse off at 5/1. Keeping mind that the line maker makes their ML based on how they think the public will bet, the line maker, in this case, gave the public too much credit. This is a good thing for those who can see what the line maker saw.

Finally, when I say,” I’m sure my following comment could be disputed, but you don’t get “early” winners looking for a good 3rd fraction. That is for closers… when you are looking for a closer. With early horses, it is the early fractions you should be looking for, along with other “dedicated” early horses in the race”, I am saying something of which I am certain. I always find myself coming back to something Jim Bradshaw use to say. “Horse racing is an easy game. When the gates open one horse goes out for the lead. If no other horse can pass it…it WINS!” In those races I’m sure a pre-race analysis showed horses with strong 3rd fractions that, ultimately, did not serve them well in races that developed in that way.

It is very unlikely that an early horse that fades will ever come out on top on the BL/BL screen, especially since the 3rd fraction in RDSS is double weighted.
It would be very unlikely that an early horse that fades would ever come out on top on the BL/BL screen even if the 3rd fraction wasn’t double weighted.
In the context of a field of horses, it will be the closers that are dominant in the 3rd fraction, not the early horse that fades. For RDSS users, compare the BL/BL screen to the “original” screen where you can see how the horses ran in the line you chose.
Take a look at the original and BL/BL screens from the PEN race last night.
Here is the original screen.
Name:  pen27orig.JPG
Views: 712
Size:  100.9 KB

Now let's look at the BL/BL for this race.

Name:  pen2blbl.JPG
Views: 717
Size:  100.3 KB

It is little wonder that two closers sit atop the BL/BL.

Therefore, as you pointed out in the “Bill V goes the extra mile” thread, as Ted pointed out in his recap of the Queen’s Plate race and as I pointed out in the 2nd race at PEN last night, doing some extra handicapping work with respect to what the early horse has been up against recently in the way of other dedicated early horses running against it and how the other possible early contenders may affect the race today, makes the difference.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
% Early - Run-Up Query DaveEdwards Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 18 05-05-2013 09:16 AM
The Match-Up After Six Months mamojica Matchup Discussion 4 10-04-2009 10:53 PM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup RichieP Hat Check - How Can We Help You? 1 05-25-2009 09:52 AM
Beware the slow early pace lines Tim Y Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 0 02-03-2009 01:06 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:15 AM.