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Old 05-23-2010, 08:50 AM   #1
pktruckdriver
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Better betting strategy

You all seen my picks lately, and it seems that certain days I hit 7-8 out of 10-11 races, but seem to leave money behind. Can you help me change that?

I know maybe limiting my wagers to bets that are above 4-1 only, and if they do not meet that criteria, then pass the race, yet it seems that alot of those races have a real ligit fav that is under 4-1 as one of the three contenders, and one that hits at high rates, so betting the 2 higher odds of the 3 contenders, gets me beat alot.

Is this still a learning thing ,like when to wager , as really true wagers may come by only 1-2 times a day per track or 1-2 times per 2-3 tracks per day, what would it be , or each day is different, most likely, right.

Is anyone willing to work a little with me and help me better plan a winning betting strategy, please let me know, thanks

patrick
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Old 05-24-2010, 07:23 AM   #2
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Nothing , oh well I tried.


Patrick
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Old 05-24-2010, 02:04 PM   #3
noddub62
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Patrick,

Read the Follow Ups concerning wagercapping. If you are getting winners in your contenders (top 5) at a good rate then you need to polish your wagercapping.

Good luck,
Bud
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Old 05-24-2010, 09:15 PM   #4
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Hey Bud

Thanks alot and I have read the follow-ups, but was kinda hoping for more current updated wager strategy's made by current players.

I believe there was a Charlie here that plays a Termination style of wager that I would love to learn, but will be patient, and may need to go elsewhere for wagering help.

I wish and will become a wagering guru in the coming years, first thru practice paper wagers and then real wagers, but was hoping to find someone using the same program I am, and thus making and learning how to structure a wager from what RDSS gives us.

I hope this makes sense, but what I am looking for is someone to work with, on how to structure a race where pace lines are plentiful for all runners and 3-6 runners stand out above the others, normally a 10+ horses running, and then finding 2 key horses to work with and help key the wagers around, kinda like finding your 2 win bet horses, but also feel that the odds and your horses are worthy of attacking this race with multiple wagers.

Am I the only one doing more than win bets here, I think not, but we horse players are a solo artist's for the most part, so I know working together is tough to find, but I will be patient and keep plugging away till someone gives in.

Patrick
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Old 05-26-2010, 03:08 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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Patrick,

You also PM'd me further to comments I made in your Mother's Day Churchill Downs betting thread (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6818), and I think that's a great card of races to use as a backdrop to some comments. I went over all your published picks and tabulated the wins, losses. I do have some comments on a few alternate analysis choices you might have made (and could apply consistently) but I'll return to those comments later, as the topic here is Wagering Strategy.

I would like to suggest that you concentrate for a while on getting the Winner and the Place horse - only. You already get the Winner in your 5 contenders a high percentage of the time and as we shall see, you're pretty good at identifying 2 horses who win with some frequency. Getting the Place horse involves identifying both the horses ranked highly on our Betting Line and knowing who disburses their energy typically most opposite to the win contenders (even if they are lowly placed on the Betting Line or Total Energy). With that in mind, please restrict yourself to wagers in the Win & Place pools, Exacta, and horizontal bets like Doubles, Pick 3 and Pick4s where you can leverage your strengths in identifying Winners. Leave off the Trifecta and Superfecta for now - focus on Win and Place only.

Let's consider CD May 9 card of races and the bets you made in the above noted thread. For starters, you picked the winner using 2 horses in races 1,3,4,5 (except for race #3 in which short field the #2 was an obvious 1 horse short price standout and not win bet, which paid $2.80 to win, with no show betting).

You did not pick the winner in race 6, a Turf route, but I'd like to suggest that that race was gettable using a widely discussed approach to 'opening the window wide' and using Turf lines from the horse's entire PPs, as discussed yesterday in this thread (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6864, please refer to my post #3 there). Could I ask you to rework that race #6 (May 9, CD) and report back on your top 2 BL/BL horses (and for extra measure, who is the 'counter-energy' horse to include in an exacta). I only mention this race #6 to show the effect of picking the winner from 2 horses for 4 races in a row (or a single horse in race 3).

In that run of races 3 - 6, you could have bet also your win bets in 2 DDs and 2 Pick 3s and would have won all of them.

Could I ask you to report back what your race 1,3,4,5,6 bets would cost using a $10 win wager unit, betting 2 horses (except no win bet in race #3), also the cost of $2 Exacta boxes or the part wheels you posted in your thread, the cost of $2 DD and Pick 3s - along with the returns for all those wagers. No Trifecta or Superfectas (just cover your eyes in race 6). You will be very pleasantly surprised - I was!

We can continue with the remaining races after you report back. I'm going somewhere with this: do you keep records on what you bet, received and your return on the $ (ROI)? I admit that in your picks as originally reported, some of the later races could have been either passed or an Exacta and Place bet added to take profits in those pools and mitigate losses in the Win pool. But at the time, I was confused by your final (discouraged) statement in that thread 'another rotten day', when initially it seemed it was anything but, and after studying it for several hours, on the contrary it seems like rather a fine and intriguing day!

I want to talk about identifying the counter-energy horse in a follow up to this, and keep the initial discussion related to Wagering Strategy and considering leveraging your Win bet anaysis. But wagering to Place or in Exacta pools involves identifying a horse that probably can't win (and hopefully looks like a loser) but who will either lead and just fail, or come on at the end and can be seen as such from its relative energy disbursement patterns.

To that end, and for homework for revisiting this day of races and Wagering Decisions, can you also take a look at the Place horse in race 4 (which you got) and race #7. Also, please look at the Place horse in race 9 and suggest how at least a place bet might have been made on it.

Then, let's discuss this further. I also have some further thoughts on why you might have considered PASSing races 8, 10 and 11.

Of course, anyone else is welcomed to chime in on this card analysis, but Patrick since you asked for some guidance (such as I'm able), the forgoing (and subsequent) are my thoughts. I took some time to do this, so I hope you take time as well.

For reference, Result Charts are here: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...D050910USA.pdf

Disclosure: The only race on this card I worked before the fact was race #1.

Cheers, looking forward!

Ted
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Old 05-26-2010, 07:01 PM   #6
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Ted , this reponse is awesome Sir, and I promise to do what you suggest and will get busy with homework, this time with a purpose and reason.

Thank you Sir for the kind remarks, and my reference to "another rotten day", was more so for what I did leave behind when I looked back at what I did and did not do, as the same thing happened on Derby Day the 1st 5 races I nailed and missed out on some big money on DD P3 and 1 pick 4, but crying over missed opportunities must stop, and a more decisive winning stratagey developed.

Well I will get busy soon and really enjoy going back over this and must read up a little on this on the "counter-energy" thing and find the horse who gets nipped at the wire , or who closes , but yet never quites get there. Which RDSS can show ths easily enough.

Gotta run

Patrick
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Old 05-26-2010, 08:26 PM   #7
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Ok race 6 re-done, but look at the time between some of the last turf races, a year and half, but it does put the 8 and 6 on top , with 1 and 7 underneath.

I just got screen hunter downloaded and hope I remember how it works, so I post this quickly to see if it worked.
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Old 05-26-2010, 08:29 PM   #8
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The winners entire lines
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Old 05-26-2010, 08:32 PM   #9
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Okay I have the screen shot down again and will do the rest soon , with pleasure.

Thanks again Ted

Patrick
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Old 05-26-2010, 08:36 PM   #10
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results race 6
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