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Old 02-01-2007, 06:23 PM   #1
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80 speed rating guidelines

Hi Ted

This screen capture is from Follow Up # 46 page 8
I have been doing well following these guidelines
while I have been using VALM and hand entering
my lines I have been focusing on lines were horse ran 80 and above
Speed ratings
If its a bunch od real slow horses I can still judge who really
is slow from how far away they are from 80

My question to you is when I use RDSS the original
readouts your SR- TV is different than the DRF
in my next post I will show you an example
From todays 6th race horse # 6 I have highlighted
Its DMR race from Aug 13 at 6.5 furlongs
But first here is the article from FU # 46
when Doc tells about the 80 SR
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Old 02-01-2007, 06:36 PM   #2
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80 speed ratings

Ok so here is a screen shot from RDSS and handicappers daily
I have highlighted the AUG 13th race
on PTD (Post time daily) the horse got our 80 speed rating with a 12 varient on RDSS he gets a 84 with a 2 varient
I have a couple of questions

1. I see you give the horse a 84
I take off 2 and the horse gets a 82 which seems close to the same 80 that PTD gave it

2. I was thinking that an 80 SR from the DRF means the horse ran
that much slower that the three year best time for that distance
I think thats 2 seconds ? or 20 fifths?

3. Do you have any kind of chart that converts the DRF
times to what you use. if so is your 82 the same as there 80?

Thanks Bill
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Old 02-03-2007, 03:14 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Bill,

The following may sound slightly overwhelming, but I hope it clarifies the relationship/distinction between Equibase/TrackMaster Speed Ratings (SR) and Daily Track Variants (DTV) and DRF ratings and variants (as reported here by Post Time Daily). They each calculate it differently:

The DRF Speed Rating, as you point out, is the deviation in 5th seconds of the horse’s finish time from the 3 year best time (or maybe that’s average 3 year best time, not sure). The horse’s finish time is the winner’s finish time less 1 point (1 5th second) per beaten length or fraction. Per Post Time Daily, the Winner of 13Aug06 race #7 finished in 1:17.1 (1:17 and 1 fifth) 7 fifths ahead of our horse for a SR of 87 which is 2 seconds and 3/5s slower than the 3 year best, so that 3 year best time must be 1:17.1 – 2.3 fifths = 1:14.3 (or 1:14.6 in tenths)

TrackMaster derives a Speed Rating as follows. Employing their Inter Track comparative Speed Chart, a ‘Par’ time is assigned to each track/distance/surface. You can see the Par for each race in the Past Performance header in any Speculator version. The Par time for DMR 6.5 Dirt (the 13Aug06 race #7 in question) is 1:17.44 (so 2.84 seconds slower than the DRF 3yb par time). I got this from the card for DMR 08/13/06 (see screenshot below). Exactly how they calculate all the par times (and thus all the ITVs between all the different track/distance/surfaces) is some kind of a ‘state secret’, but I know they do shipper studies, averages, sample testing by season, etc.

I guess a handicapper just has to decide which set of baselines, or pars, are more useful based on how they help compare horses running today – difficult to do except in the aggregate and requiring more record keeping and study than almost all of us prefer to do.

I believe Doc is suggesting 80 as a Median value guideline to use (meaning half are over 80 and half are under 80). Doc’s article went on to say to accept a horse within 2 SR points of the Median SR value, so confronted with SRs on a different scale, consider using the same technique and determine what the mid-point rating is (Median) and accept horses within 2 (or 3, whatever) of that mid-point.

A reminder: the TrackMaster/Equibase Speed Ratings consist of 3 numbers added together: 1) the Raw Speed Rating, 2) the Daily Track Variant, 3) the Inter Track Variant (ITV). TM breaks out the DTV and this is shown in the TV column in Spec, Val and RDSS. They do not provide the ITV but they provided Doc and Guy (and me) with the formula to extract it, for a given track/distance/surface, which formula was accurate in the late 1990’s (for Validator) but by now is somewhat less so. (RDSS will gain access to the actual ITV value).

For your information, Validator and Speculator show the Raw Speed Rating with the DTV extracted out. In RDSS, I chose to show the Raw SR including the DTV (and implicitly, the ITV) so all of a horse’s lines could be compared with each other for movement up and down a form cycle, or with respect to surface/distance preferences. Referring to the Raw SR in Val3c (screenshot below), you can see that if you add the SR and the TV together, you get the Raw SR reported by RDSS (the figure provided by TrackMaster). For example, in the last 3 races: (Val 89 + -8 = 81, per RDSS), (95 + -4 = 91), (95 + 0 = 95). For the DMR race in question: (86 + -2 = 84, per RDSS). (FYI, if you perform the same calculations in Spec160, you will get more-or-less within 1 SR point of the same answer, because Guy chose to avoid the TM horse’s SR number and use instead the Winners SR minus beaten lengths, which differed by rounding for fractional beaten lengths).

Note that if you extract out the DTV from the Raw SR in RDSS (by subtracting the DTV from the SR, e.g. 84 - -2 = 86), you still are left with a number which is mostly Speed Rating but partly Inter Track Variant as well. My view is that if you use the entire Raw TM Speed Rating, treat it as reasonable (and normalized) for comparing a horse’s own lines to each other and to other horses’ lines, find the Median SR of a set of horses if you wish, then you will indeed end up with contenders in the neighbourhood of likely to run at today’s pace. The 5 Steps of the Match Up (plus extra Voodoo if you dare), should slim down those contenders, and the various Analysis screens should then help making distinctions between the remaining horses, and perhaps also identify counter-energy and other likely in-the-money finishers for your exotics.

Bill, I hope this has helped, but feel free to ask for any further clarification and I’ll do my best.

Thanks for your efforts and study in trying to make RDSS work for you!

Ted
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Old 02-14-2007, 12:22 PM   #4
socantra
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Thanks Ted. You cleared up a question on Speculator speed ratings which has been bugging me since the days when we took the old scale Trackmaster speed ratings apart. It was obvious what Val was doing with the variant, but I never could figure out the link on Spec. Winner's SR minus beaten lengths makes perfect sense. I appreciate you clearing up one of those "back of the mind" nags. Now, if I can just get rid of the several thousand others that are cluttering up my brain................(G)

Something else I think should be emphasized on Binder's question: The concept of the 80 DRF median was never entirely accurate. It varied from track to track. The idea was just a basic statement that most sound horses should be able to run within four seconds of the track record. Your idea of finding a 'happy median' accomplishes the same thing, and is probably more predictive.

The difference is going to be in the number of points on each side of that median. The DRF speed rating and the Posttime Daily speedrating are both based on one point per fifth second. Trackmaster is based on a sliding scale with a point being worth a tenth of a second at a mile.

In short, once you figure your median SR, the brackets on either side of it would be more than two points. I'd use a variation of 4-5 points on either side in sprints and 3-4 points in routes.

Dick...
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