Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-14-2012, 01:58 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
BuffaloXP contest race RP 1 11/14

Hi Ray
Good skill with your 9 horse
I am going to pass


Here are my lines
H1 NL 20/1 no form
H2 NL 20/1 No form
H3 NL will press the 6 at best 20/1
H4
NL no sprint form
H5 No line 20/1 if it runs to race 2
maybe but its a NC
H6 EARLY advantage dropping in class
H7 presser 8 plus races in a row sprinting
but besides the 5.5 distance happend last race ?
H8 No Line so sprint form
H9 Sus line 3 last race was a (+) it made a move
In F1-F2 to be part of the pace. It was its first
try at RP , Line 2 is at 7.0 Line 3 fits its running style
and is recent It show 6 plus races sprinting form is questionable

H10 Sus Line 1 shows a abnormal late energy effort
to get up for show
Name:  Race1RP.PNG
Views: 362
Size:  46.9 KB
Name:  SegsRP1.PNG
Views: 367
Size:  46.0 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2012, 07:58 PM   #2
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Bill V and I discussed this race earlier today. Bill was quite certain that the #6 horse had an early advantage and ask for my opinion. I agreed. It had a HUGE advantage. When I talk about "early", I mean at the first fraction. It also had a huge advantage at the second call.

From a betting point of view, I had no interest in the race for a couple of reasons.
1 - with a ML of 2/1, there was no way to get a price on this horse
2 - betting against it could be detrimental to your bankroll

It is just easier to PASS.

I did want to make some comments, however.

I think it is important to note, that when reading the segments screen, you have to read BOTH the "computed beaten lengths" section and at the same time read the "incremental match up" (segments screen). Here's why.

Under "computed beaten lengths and F1, it shows the #6 with "0.0" beaten lengths. In the same section, the #9 shows "8.4" beaten lengths.

Under "incremental match up" and F1, it shows the #6 1st and the #9 3rd.
If you read the computed beaten lengths and F1, you will see that the only horse further back than the #9 is the #10 at 17.5 lengths, who shows 4th on the F1 segments screen.

Moving to the SC section of the computed beaten lengths screen, you can see that the #6 horse is still the leader at the second call with "0.0" beaten lengths.
At the same time over on the incremental match up screen, it shows under segment F2 that the #9 is 1st and the #6 2nd.
This DOES NOT MEAN, the #9 will overtake the #6 at the second call. It means, that during the running of the 2nd FRACTION, the #9 will be running faster than the #6, while still being "3.0" beaten lengths behind the #6 as shown under the computed beaten lengths screen at the second call ("SC").

Now....
IF in today's race, the #6 backs up 13.25 lengths again, and
IF in today's race, the #9 makes up 5.25 lengths from the second call to the finish as it did in the line used, line 3, and
IF no other unsuspecting horse runs a better race than anticipated,
THEN the race may turn out as shown.

The question in this race is, what is the condition of the #6 horse? It is dropping down from a lengthy series of Allowance races for NW1X and one "OC" race with the same condition, to a $5,000 claiming race with a NW2 in 2012 condition. Will this horse be running on 4 legs today or just 3 legs? Even on 3 legs it is probably the best horse.
Name:  rp1.JPG
Views: 342
Size:  69.1 KB

With regard to the #9 horse and the use of the 3rd line back. In follow up #88 Doc said this.
Name:  best of last 3.JPG
Views: 333
Size:  29.2 KB
So my question would be, "what is the evidence" that the #9 will run back to the line used. It didn't run back to it in line 2 and it didn't run back to it in line 1.

Keep in mind, this is a valid question in any instance where you go back 3 or 4 lines for a horse and it has run more lack luster races since, even when those races were at similar distances and on similar surfaces.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2012, 07:59 PM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Results

The 6 wins in a easy wire to wire effort and pays $4.40
Name:  resultsRM.PNG
Views: 318
Size:  40.1 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2012, 12:26 AM   #4
buffaloxp
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
thank for the lead and bill
this show me how to read segments, thankagain
raymond
buffaloxp is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Buffaloxp contest race TUP race 9 11/12 Bill V. Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 8 11-13-2012 11:18 PM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Official Contest Rules (please respond in the Poll to enter the Contest) Ted Craven Contest Admin Stuff 1 05-31-2012 12:48 PM
RDSS Learn to Win - Contest Announcement & Discussion Ted Craven Contest Admin Stuff 7 05-28-2012 11:28 AM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup RichieP Hat Check - How Can We Help You? 1 05-25-2009 09:52 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:42 AM.