Bill's Lemon Race

[admin]

All in fun
but really Ted and anybody ?

why do you think the 5 was 2nd on BLBL
and the 10 was 4th

The 10 has beat the 5 twice before in tandems
They are both E types
the 10 was # 1 EPR and had a better factor x cpr and total energy

here are some other readouts

Thanks

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

Just on your readouts, the 10 was NOT 4th on BL/BL - it was tiered 3rd, and the 5, 8 and 10 were all within .2 BL/BL points of each other, thus functionally equivalent, thus all 2nd ranked. (The 10 was placed 4th on the readout rather than 3rd because it had worse Total Energy than the 8, but not by much). Near post-time odds of < 2-1, the #5 is a hide and the 10 is a clear co-win bet at 16-1.

The #5 got a hair better BL/BL points only becuase of its TT and FW ranks - equal to rounding error, IMO. The low post-time odds is actually a negative factor for wagercapping, given it is not an overriding Analysis standout.

I think your Segments CBL screen also tells the tale. The 10 is the Early horse who can get and keep the lead to the 2nd call. That's how it ran.

Armchair, retro analysis freely given. Tell me you had a piece of the 10!



Ted

[Chazz]

Bill:
How come you have checked the paceline for the 10 horse,
32 days back yet it shows the line 18 days back in the
analysis reading.
That might be the difference.
Chazz

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Chazz

Bill:
How come you have checked the paceline for the 10 horse,
32 days back yet it shows the line 18 days back in the
analysis reading.
That might be the difference.
Chazz

Chazz, just a clarification on those Analysis readouts, the Last column shows when the horse last ran (i.e. it's last race days ago), not the days ago of the paceline selected.

Ted

[Chazz]

Thanks Ted for clearing that up for me.
Chazz

[Chazz]

Ted:
One other question you might be able to clear up for me is:
Why is the SR 72 for horse 10 in the paceline selected, but in the analysis it shows 67
Chazz

[admin]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill,

Just on your readouts, the 10 was NOT 4th on BL/BL - it was tiered 3rd, and the 5, 8 and 10 were all within .2 BL/BL points of each other, thus functionally equivalent, thus all 2nd ranked. (The 10 was placed 4th on the readout rather than 3rd because it had worse Total Energy than the 8, but not by much). Near post-time odds of < 2-1, the #5 is a hide and the 10 is a clear co-win bet at 16-1.

The #5 got a hair better BL/BL points only becuase of its TT and FW ranks - equal to rounding error, IMO. The low post-time odds is actually a negative factor for wagercapping, given it is not an overriding Analysis standout.

I think your Segments CBL screen also tells the tale. The 10 is the Early horse who can get and keep the lead to the 2nd call. That's how it ran.

Armchair, retro analysis freely given. Tell me you had a piece of the 10!

Attachment 11168

Ted

Ted
Thank you once again
now I see it

Ted Yes I (lemon) squeezed out a nice show bet
see this post
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binde...02&postcount=1

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Chazz

Ted:
One other question you might be able to clear up for me is:
Why is the SR 72 for horse 10 in the paceline selected, but in the analysis it shows 67
Chazz

They are two different Speed Ratings. The one shown on the Analysis BL/BL screen (and other Analysis screens) is the Adjusted SR computed by the program. The SR on the Original screen (of the horse and also on the Analysis screen) is the TrackMaster SR. Different measurement methods and sometimes different paceline rankings. I pay little attention to either of these final time ratings, in favour of the incremental Energy related measurements instead.

Ted