Matchup Challenge Apr 18/19 by Mowens33

[Bill Lyster]

I like the 7; beat the 2 handily two back, has a win and place at 7f and can rate. The 2-3-4 and 6 all look early. the 7 is lightly raced has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 starts.

7 only

[PeteC]

Good luck today guys, I will pass on today's race and probably take a peek at tomorrow's a little later...

[The Pook]

Can't bet on him. Can't bet against him. So I will pass.

[gandalf380]

I narrowed the field down to 1,4,6,7. I am going to go with the 6 Got Even as I think he has the best finishing kick. This is a pretty good betting race as I think that the field will be pretty tight at the 3/8ths pole but I do think the 6 will pull away in the final 1/16th. Good luck everybody.

[Ted Craven]

Re the CT Classic - I will not play this race in the Contest - too little payout likely on Shared Belief, and hard to bet against him, even on this new track (for him).

However - Moreno: one of my favourite horses running now, and one of my best 'cash cows' (er, cash horses ) He is just such a determined professional on the front end! Whenever he is disrespected and allowed to go at more than say 5-1, I have put a 1-2-4 unit structured W-P-S wager on him and made good money even when he is running against monster odds on favourites (e.g. SB in the SA Handicap, Palace Malice in last year's Whitney) Alas, I doubt he'll be much more than 4-1 despite SB being likely Odds on, and may not pay more than $3 and change to Place or Show if SB wins as in the SA Handicap (I'd prefer a bit more).

So in this Win only ROI contest, I'll pass this race - for the above reasons. But will definitely be watching watching these 2 great horses!

Originally Posted by The Pook

That is quite interesting!

I noticed something else while comparing Beyers to RDSS speed numbers. Last race..
Shared Belief 111 Beyer, next best is General ARods 104 Beyer
Shared Belief 83 Adj Trackmaster SR, General ARods is 93 Adj Trackmaster SR

Thats quite a difference in opinion.

Pook - the TrackMaster SR (and not the RDSS Adjusted SR) last race for each of Shared Belief and General Arod were 109 and 112 respectively. Not sure which numbers you are citing above. Even given that modest 112 superiority of GA, considering the relative class of the races where these were earned, I am not too concerned.

If you meant the RDSS Adjusted SR (and not the TrackMaster SR), using any kind of DTV Adjustment setting, I couldn't get GA's SRs anywhere close to SBs ...

Good luck to all!

Ted

[The Pook]

Ted these are my screens. I have default adjustment settings as far as I know.

[The Pook]

Apr 19/15 Santa Anita 5

[The Pook]

OOOOOEEEEE look at those odds! If any of you contrarians connect LOOK OUT!

[Ted Craven]

Oooh, that's a big 'sucking' sound of a LOT of money vaporizing on Shared Belief. I hope he is OK ...



Ted

[Ted Craven]

Well, as described above, I did bet that 1-2-4 WPS on Moreno. Nice payday, if no inquiries ...

Ted