Matchup Challenge Mar 21/22 by PeteC

[Capcondo]

My race above is for the 4th at Santa Anita on Saturday. Sorry about that.

Tim

[raceman5]

Think i will just use the tandem race of Dec 27 and win bet the 2 and 7

Bob

[PeteC]

I also feel this race will run OTE with the early sprinters not being able to sustain their pace over the distance. I used the 47.2 112.0 last race tandem for today's projected pace.

1: This sprinter is a contender. He won from the clouds last time against an insanely fast (even for this downhill course) pace.

The 2,4 and 7 have also run well against today's pace or faster too.

The 8 is also a contender for me running well against today's pace on the tapeta at GG.

The 7 had a nice 2nd against the fastest pace albeit not a close second. I notice then that the 8 was only a neck behind the 7 in a stake at GG.


I will take the 7 and 8 to win.

[raceman5]

Again i will go with the tandem race of Dec 6 and bet the 4 and 8 to win.

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Saturday SA 4th

I don't know what to do with this race. This is one that I would pass. The early horses are sprinters stretching out for the first time. Do you adjust these guys somehow? No router is an early. I think I read that Jim would compare sprinters to sprinters and routers to routers and go from there but even then I'm a little lost. Maybe somebody could show us(me) how it is done. So I will pass this one and look to see what you others come up with.

Good luck
Pook

Complicated race what with the GG raced horses, that surface vs turf, etc. AND converting the down the hill turf sprints to something useable.

couple of years ago I went back through the PPs and used horses that had been successful on the SA turf course and the main track. Although this study included only those successful on both surfaces and the fact that I could probably find only about 50 horses, the average time differential between the turf course and the dirt course was about 3.74 seconds. So a horse that ran 113.00 down the hill, might be expected to run 116.74 on the dirt course.

If you choose to use that adjustment you then need to add 2 fifths for sprint to route and the 6.4 seconds per half furlong for the adjustment from the 6.5 distance to todays route distance.

Admittedly, this might be too many adjustments for most, assuming you did it for all the horses in the field. Better to line up all the down the hillers and match up the best one, then look at the tandems from GGF and then the rest of the field at a mile on turf. Note that there are some horses who have only won their maiden race coming into this stake, never a great bet, but for these you could match up their mile turf races and use the best one in the final analysis. You might end up with one sprinter, one GGF horse, the best maiden and the best SA turf miler to match up.

I am a little pressed for time today and cannot post any further. Indian Wells tennis is calling me for an all day attendance event. Good luck to you all.

Bill

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Capcondo

Thanks for posting this Pete.

The 3 and the 9 are early sprinters in a route. Neither shows a pattern of closing up in sprints. I think they'll be way out in front. The race should go OTE (as many turf races do).

The 5 and 6 look too slow.

This leaves me with the 1,2,4,7, and 8.

There are a couple of tandem races here. The Eddie Logan stakes was very fast. The 2 and the 7 come out of that race. The other tandem is the last race for the 2 and 4.

1: This guy has had trouble at the start in 3 of 6 races. What's more, he doesn't close up in any of the sprints through the stretch call. OUT.
2: Ran well in both tandems. Contender.
4: Won the tandem against the 2. Contender.
7: Ran well in tandem. Will be behind 2. OUT.
8: Slow. OUT.

Conclusion:

This leaves me with the 2 and 4. This is a tough call. The 4 may get wrapped up in the pace.

The 2 is my choice.

GL

Tim

Tim, when you are talking about the #1, what do you mean that he does not close up in any sprint through the stretch call? It looks to me like that is when he is closing.

Pook

[Seven Furlongs]

Forgot to add, my post earlier in the thread was for the Santa Anita race.

[Bill Lyster]

Okay, I took the time required:

#1 is the best of the down the hillers, closing 8-8-6-1,beating the 3 who looks to go early with the 9.

2 and 4 are best turf milers. I look to the 2 to reverse the tandem from last out as it was first race as 3 yo and a layoff.

The 7 beat the two in a tandem a while back but i think the 2 runs closer to the lead. the tandem running positions for the 2 were 5-3-2-3 and for the 7 were 8-5-3-2.

Tough choice between the 2 and 7 for me. For me, the 2 at short odds, over the 7.

Bill

[mowens33]

My picks 2 and 4

[cigar]

sorry guys, no workup today my pick is 7 and 1