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02-22-2020, 11:35 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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AQU 2/22/20 Late p5 Carryover/Full Card
AQU 2/22/20 Late p5 Carryover/Full Card
$79,672 carryover in late p5 today at AQU: r1: 4-3-5: chalky, 4 has best figs, 3 needs to control early pace, 5 closes r2: 7-4-1: chalky, 7 will press and close, 4 needs to close, 1 might steal on lead r3: 3-2-5: chalky, 3 is well meant FTS, three of seven are FTS r4: 6-2-4: chalky, only four horses after scratches START OF LATE p5 (50 cent min), 3:20 ET Post r5: 6-4-7-5: chalky, but if can beat the 4 might find a price r6: 1-3-4-2 chalky, but a bunch of cripples r7: 1-4-5: wide open, 5 needs the lead, if can't get it opens up for 1 or 4 r8: 1-2-5: chalky, 2 needs to control pace, 1 has best figs r9: 8-5-9-3: wide open, a bunch of cripples, 8 might steal on the lead Good luck. Richard |
02-22-2020, 12:39 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Skill
Good Luck / Skill to you
Richard Bill |
02-22-2020, 12:45 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Good luck Richard.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
02-22-2020, 01:15 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Hope you make some $$$$$$ today Richard.
Mitch44 |
02-22-2020, 01:35 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Good
Luck, hope the 288.00 investment pays big for you.
Bob |
02-22-2020, 02:26 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Richard.
Best of luck and good skill on your pick-5. Rmath |
02-23-2020, 10:20 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Results:
9 races, 9 winners, BUT not a single winner pays over $8.70 4 #1s: 2.90, 7.50, 2.60, 5.00 4 #2s: 5.10, 8.70, 3.70, 6.80 1 #3: 7.00 5 $1 ex: 4.35, 12.40, 3.10, 22.30, 17.70 2 $0.50 tri:4.10, 44.25 8 $1 dd: 4.05, 13.20, 6.80, 7.30, 13.00, 14.40, 7.00, 3.70 7 $1 p3s: 18.80, 23.10, 39.75, 23.40, 56.25, 22.70, 19.00 2 $0.50 p4: 43.75, 35.37 2 $0.50 p5: 81.87, 178.00 1 $0.20 JP p6: 47.10 Way too much chalk today to make any $, even with the late p5 carryover. Richard |
02-23-2020, 11:11 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: central islip ny
Posts: 1,091
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that kind of day illustrates you cannot make money in multirace bets unless you have at least one opinion in a race that differs from the crowd. In a pick-5 you made need 2 or 3.
__________________
Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com |
02-23-2020, 12:26 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I disagree Charlie, its nice to get a good price in a combinations of or a series of bets.
As I stated before with numerous horizonal bets, one has to cut the extension (cost or outlay) by using a single or getting a race down to 2 horses (preferably a single or two races with only two horses in a pick 6). We can't control the prices but we can control our betting and construction of tickets. Even if one does a SWAG or WAG for a race the reduced extension allows us even with a loss to play more P6's for the same amount of money or cost. If you can't get at least one race down to 2 horses than your just guessing and probably should stay out of the bet. Of course if your pockets are deep and your bank is large than what the hell let it rip. Mitch44 |
02-23-2020, 03:46 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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I always try to classify a race as "chalky" (= likely to be won by top 2-3 favorites) or "wide open" (= not likely to won by top 2-3 favorites).
In the p5 sequence, there were 3 "chalky" classifications and 2 "wide open" classifications, but the anticipated wide open races did not run that way. Generally, when betting horizontals, best if fewer than half of the races would be classified as "chalky". In addition, as I have stated elsewhere, when the early part of the sequence starts off chalky, you will have a lot of company still alive in the pool as the later races are run, and the payoffs will rarely beat a win parlay. Would have been much better if the early races were won by longer shots. Richard |
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