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Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup

 
 
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Old 03-07-2008, 06:50 PM   #11
VoodooFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
The #1's last line - is 3rd at the break and MOVES right to the front at first fraction.
Thanks for the lesson Rich. Of course, I have some questions.
1) In the above quote, are you looking at what position and how a horse breaks to press or challenge for the lead?

2) What about habitually slow breakers who are Early and Early Pressers?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
shows a move to engage and fight for the lead
3)This looks like new ammunition for you and us for spot plays. Do you feel you will be sharper with this added view of races?

4) Are you looking at ANY horse horse who regularly challenge for the lead at the 1st call / 2nd call , whether his position is 4th or 5th at the 1st call...as long as he challenges for the lead at one of those two calls?

5) Is a horse a fighter and /or challenger if he is 3rd or 4th position off by a neck or head, or is he simply fighting other Other-Than-Early horses and is not considered a challenger to the Early horse at the 1st two calls?

Very nice post.

VoodooFan
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Old 03-08-2008, 05:13 AM   #12
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I also noticed, Rich, when you confirmed THE Early horse that will have the lead, you always look and comment if there are no position 2 or 3 horses.

Does that make your spot play that much stronger when you see no position
2 or 3 horses?

Do you care what lengths the 2nd postion and 3rd position horses have in their past performance?

Looks like with this recent post, you are looking at how or if a position 2 and 3 will challenge the leader for the lead in either or both of the 1st two calls.

Thanks

VoodooFan

** When there are no horses in the 2nd position at the 1st or 2nd calls YES I do feel the early horse becomes that much stronger fwiw** - RichieP

Last edited by RichieP; 03-08-2008 at 08:17 AM.
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Old 03-08-2008, 08:25 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VoodooFan View Post
Thanks for the lesson Rich. Of course, I have some questions.
1) In the above quote, are you looking at what position and how a horse breaks to press or challenge for the lead?

2) What about habitually slow breakers who are Early and Early Pressers?



3)This looks like new ammunition for you and us for spot plays. Do you feel you will be sharper with this added view of races?

4) Are you looking at ANY horse horse who regularly challenge for the lead at the 1st call / 2nd call , whether his position is 4th or 5th at the 1st call...as long as he challenges for the lead at one of those two calls?

5) Is a horse a fighter and /or challenger if he is 3rd or 4th position off by a neck or head, or is he simply fighting other Other-Than-Early horses and is not considered a challenger to the Early horse at the 1st two calls?

Very nice post.

VoodooFan
Voodoo,

1) SOMETIMES the break helps me to "see" who will be the one dictating the pace of todays race. Above race is good example.

2) To be honest I don't really know. Have to look more closely at this

3) This race type kind of helps me because I can match horses up from the same distance structure. I am not very good when I have to mix and match.

4) Any horse from any position when the pp line shows a "head" or "neck" back is engaged in a FIGHT for the lead

5) If he is 3rd-4th back a neck then there is a real tussle on for the lead at that call and YES he is battling for the lead
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Old 12-18-2008, 08:19 PM   #14
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12/18/08 Update

Guys I want to bump this up to the top for a reason. There is MONEY here.

*** The following is definitely FOR users of the 5 step approach. Have the PATIENCE to wait for this and your 5 step will take care of the rest.***

Listen REAL simple:

1) Today is a route (turf or dirt) and there are at least 2 matching early 1st fraction/first call/2nd call ROUTE horses PLUS an early running sprinter.THROW all the earlies out for the WIN and take the 1st fraction/1st call times/2nd call times of the router as todays proj pace.

2) LOOK at the pps of the O.T.E.(other than early)runners. Mark any horse/pace lines against today's proj pace where the horse WON or just missed while doing so from the 4th or 5th POSITION at the FIRST CALL.

3) Again with the focus on the O.T.E. grouping mark any horse/paceline against todays proj pace where the horse had the LEAD at the stretch call regardless of finish position.

The horses you get from #2 and #3 above are your horses plain and simple. Wait for #1 to be present in todays race (PATIENCE!) then find horse described in #2 and #3 that are also a price.

Merry Christmas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uOabPZScQs
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Old 12-19-2008, 06:04 AM   #15
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Matching for Money

“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” -- Warren Buffett

1) Make a game plan centered around race patterns that YOU have seen work when you match races YOUR way.

2) Avoid like the plague race patterns that YOU struggle with regardless of what you read works for others. I will tell you that MY weak link is early horses (Lone E, Dominant E etc) while other matchers flourish here

3) To match for money BET races that are part of #1 and PASS all others.

Mr. Bradshaw's 5 step approach and concepts are here in this forum for YOU to explore,discover,practice and IMPLEMENT to put CASH in its practitioners pockets. With todays economic climate around the world it is BIG to hone skills here to supplement/provide income.

"Mr. Hat" told me his Matchup Concepts are timeless and would serve us well for years to come.

“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” -- Warren Buffett
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Last edited by RichieP; 12-19-2008 at 06:07 AM.
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Old 12-19-2008, 08:36 AM   #16
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Hi Richie..

I am so thrilled you bumped this up , because matching routes has been a my weakness and I didnt even bother with them...

Let me give you an example ...

Lets say your #1 is met...2 early routers and a fast sprinter.....

projected pace is 24.2....48.3.....115.2....

we have 2 OTE's...with the same positions and lengths behind ....5...4...2...1


Horse A fractions....24.2...48.3... 115.2

Horse B fractions....24.1...48.1....115.0

I would bet the B horse because he ran vs a better pace....

But now I think I was wrong because he didnt get those fast fractions to run at..

Correct???

mike
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Old 12-19-2008, 11:49 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Hi Richie..

I am so thrilled you bumped this up , because matching routes has been a my weakness and I didnt even bother with them...
mike
Watch this Mike.

Here is a race from last night at Penn. It was a route.

Now here are the 3 early runners I talked about in previous post above. TWO early ROUTE runners and ONE early running SPRINTER.

Matter of fact when you see the off time of the Penn race here and then the time of my post above you will see that the race I am gonna show you ran AFTER I had posted about the power of this.

Like Mr. Hat was watching all this go down a race immediately comes up exactly like I was telling you to look for and it turns out to be a pretty good payday man! (YES I have the tickets to share).

This would happen all the time when he would teach me something new. He would show it to me early in the morning then the same day I would play and see it and hit. I would call him up going crazy like "Jim I just hit a race and it was exactly like you showed me this afternoon!". This happened SO many times that after a while he would laugh when he heard my voice at the other end.

Jim called it "Karma" or "the way it is supposed to be Rich". I called it "scary" or "that funny stuff again Hat". He just laughed this devilish little laugh he did sometimes

Here are the pp's of the early running horses. As you see proj pace is piece of cake taken right from the #12 last race at this track and dist structure

Step 1:
RECOGNIZE this pattern going forward.
A) We THROW OUT this whole group immediately from any win consideration

B) Grab the 1st fraction/1st call/ 2nd call (here I just used 1fr/1c as you see.Doesnt matter in this race fwiw) from the early ROUTE horses.

Get this VITAL step down pat. Keep LOOKING at these 3 guys and their early fractional times. The last screenshot shows them together for easy evaluation

THIS is the setup your Mind's Eye needs to take pictures of.
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Old 12-19-2008, 08:39 PM   #18
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Here are the full pps along with the tandem tab showing on mid panel.

I have highlighted 1f/1c proj pace

These are pigs. Lets look for any races with signs of life against proj pace or faster.
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Old 12-19-2008, 08:40 PM   #19
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Old 12-20-2008, 10:00 AM   #20
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Hi Rich..

Yes , I laughed at this too....with the colors of RDSS there were only 2 horses that had a red finish with green 1 & 2 calls , then when u look at the times of those calls ...easy choice

Oh how I wish I had time to go thru the PP's...

mike
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