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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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05-03-2017, 05:26 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Oaks Friday Race 11
Early look
Oak Grade 1 1,000,000 3-year-old Fillies 9 furlongs Top 5 TPR (line 1 ) 14, 7, 1, 4, 6 Fulcrum POR Nobody's last line is from CD Notes Horse 1 Ever So Clever Sustained 20/1 Line 1 Grade 3 win Horse 2 Lockdown Early 20/1 Line 1 Grade 2 Place Horse 3 Mopotism Presser 20/1 Line 2 75 stakes win Horse 4 Paradise Woods Early 2.5/1 Line 1 Grade 1 win Horse 5 Jordans Henny Early Presser 30/1 Line 1 Grade 2 3rd Horse 6 Vexatious Presser 20/1 Line 1 Grade 3 3rd Horse 7 Farrell Early 5/1 Line 1 Grade 2 win Horse 8 Sailors Valentine Early 30/1 Line 1 Grade 1 win Horse 9 Wicked Lick Sustained 30/1 Line 1 Grade 2 Place Horse 10 Miss Sky Warrior Early 4.5/1 Line 1 Grade 2 win Horse 11 Tequilita Sus-Presser 20/1 Line 1 Grade 2 place Horse 12 Daddys Lil Darling Sustained 20/1 Line 1 Grade 1 Place Horse 13 Abel Tasman Sus Presser 5/1 Line 1 Grade 1 place Horse 14 Salty Sustained Presser 6/1 Line 1 grade 2 win Horse 15 Summer Luck Sustained 30/1 Line 2 Grade 2 place |
05-03-2017, 07:53 PM | #2 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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Hi Bill,
I figured I would jump here and render my opinion. I see the race as going Fast - Late I like the 10 at 9/2 odds. My 2 bet choices would be 10 & 4 |
05-03-2017, 09:25 PM | #3 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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Here is what I believe to be an accurate representation of speed points and running style. This should give you an idea of how the race should run and which horses qualify by speed and fit the race.
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05-05-2017, 03:24 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Using the Marathon Method which got me The Oaks last year at double digits. Nine panels is not a marathon but I used it here anyway.
Top 5 and positions #4 Paradise Woods 96.1 1st #14 Salty 96.5 1st #13 Abel Tasman 95.9 3rd #5 Jordan's Henny 96.5 3rd #11 Tequilita 96.5 4th 4/14 for the win. Pook |
05-05-2017, 05:00 PM | #5 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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Hi Pook,
Excuse my ignorance but I never heard of the Marathon Method. Maybe you could clue me in. |
05-05-2017, 05:07 PM | #6 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Quote:
It's a Matchup spot play in the Hatcheck. You'll find it here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=2026&page=3 Pook |
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05-05-2017, 05:17 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
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Marathon Method
Summary
Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark. He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage. So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion. This is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races. Richie P posted
__________________
May all wagers be Winners... |
05-05-2017, 05:23 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Odds an hour out:
#4 Paradise Woods 1/1 #14 Salty 9/1 #13 Abel Tasman 11/1 #5 Jordan's Henny 60/1 #11 Tequilita 30/1 Can't be on a 1/1 in a 14 horse field. Will have to see. Maybe bet all of them but the 4. Pook |
05-05-2017, 05:49 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Odds look stable.
#4 Paradise Woods 1/1 #14 Salty 9/1 #13 Abel Tasman 10/1 #5 Jordan's Henny 60/1 #11 Tequilita 30/1 Pass on the 4 at 1/1 14/13 for the win. Pook |
05-05-2017, 05:56 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Kentucky Oaks
I'll take the #13 off a bounce in her previous against the favorite. Bred to love the slop.
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