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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2

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Old 04-15-2016, 09:24 PM   #21
RichieP
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Hi Ted and thanx for the detailed reply!

You know there really are so many ways to utilize RDSS and to be honest I would be out of the game completely without your software.

I am "software matching" and many of the readouts help me with pass/play decisions as I was telling your Mum today on the phone. The key for me is PASSING races I dont completely understand and also dont have TWO value bet win bets going off at 4/1 and higher on BOTH runners.

Lets put aside CSR, APV, New Pace, Class ratings and the like cause I dont use any of that (i'm SURE its all good for others as it should be!)

For MY matching what really helps is the segment screen especially when I have a race with multiple early runners that I believe will cancel each other out leaving me with an OTE outcome for the WIN. I throw out the earlies and of my remaining OTE contenders go straight to the segments and look for the 2 best F1 runners ( remember Hat's teaching us to bet the horse closest to the pace even when OTE is the race shape) well I bet the TWO best if they are good odds! I like a cushion if you will

Since my post earlier in this thread 2 nights ago I looked at 36 races and I have bet exactly one which was today's grade 1 turf at Keeneland Race #9. Right away there were 2 pure early runners who matched (#3, #7) so I focused on quality runners who ran well from up close against a pace I thought would happen. after throwing them out and keeping ONLY the OTE runners I had 4 contenders, here are screenshots showing original lines and the help RDSS gives me (LOOK at who the TWO best F1 runners are, These are the horses I want to bet in this race shape. PERIOD) I am also including my wager from Twinspires. It's the #2 and #4 all the way looking at F1 forget all the other readouts in this race shape. $14.60 winner blowing by the 2 earlies was beautiful! BTW the winner was #2 so one horse bettors focusing on closest to the pace OTE runner (LOOK at F1) nail her in a 1 horse bet!!

Are there things I would like to see added? Sure (not sure what else you have going with the new update) but for now THANK YOU for what I have!
Richie
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Old 04-15-2016, 10:13 PM   #22
Ted Craven
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Hi, checking in from beautiful Charlottesville, Virginia near the Blue Ridge Mountains before I head out for a week's seminar working on my 'intuition / minds-eye' (better late than never ). Then on to Las Vegas and area for a week, returning for May 2 (got to stay balanced - LOL!)

Re some of the comments here:

1. Don't worry - nothing from the current RDSS will be missing from RDSS2.1 (except hopefully most of the bugs). You can even run the current version side-by-side with the new one. You don't even have to update if you don't want to. I am only adding additional things.

2. Stuff people don't want to see. I take the advice given above and will make it so that CSR (like Morning Line Odds, requested previously) can be hidden wherever it appears if you really don't want to see it. And as I mentioned in the RDSS2.1 Feature List, the Analysis Panel will have the same Layout Tool as the PP Panels do now, so if you don't want to see the new Rx screen, you can hide it (and you can hide as many of the other Analysis screens as you want to, as well). For those who think they may be interested in new things - don't worry: you can still check it out. (And I assure you: the profits made by making use of these newer things is still as spendable and virtuous as if made using any of the other screens.) Is there anything else I should make optionally 'hideable' - remembering, you can hide entire screens?

3. Matchup Stuff. Mark, as far as I can tell, everything you asked me for is included in the Feature List, and some of it has been displayed in Bill V's screens (grouping by Running Style). If I left something out, please send me an email or PM. Lone Speed - if you would kindly send me (or re-send me) the specifics of your 3 years ago request, I would be grateful. Maybe it's in my mind to do and did not get described in the Feature List. Besides FPLR, Projected Pace on the Adjusted screen, sorting by Running Style, improved accuracy (IMO) on creating Running Styles -what other Matchup Stuff is there, please?

4. Re 'data-mining' - well, one man's data-mining is another man's Brohamer Decision Model. As above, if you don't want to keep Decision Models (or Track Profiles, or track your wagers), then simply don't use the new Modeler. As for performing the various searching and slicing and dicing of HTR, or HSH or whatever - if I knew more about what these programs do, I could tell you better what RDSS will or won't do sooner or later. I have no interest in 'wannabe' anything.

If you'd like to keep an automated Wager Decision Form like Doc Sartin suggested in numerous Follow Ups - on any factor you like (e.g. like I did with Rx for Aqueduct), or if you want to track your decisions on what combo of factors works well for YOU at PENN National sprints for Winners in field sizes of 7+ horses and what is your average ROI and Hit rate (for example) - maybe the Modeler will help you. If you never keep very many records at all because it's all too damned much work ... etc, etc.

5. Re 'Ted has decided that his perceptor should replace Doc's work' -- Perceptor is none other than the F6 Feature in Validator - created by Doc to tell you which paceline the software thinks is strongest: no more, no less. It's not even my label (it's Guy Wadsworth's). And Doc never included automated paceline selection in any of his programs, so I never replaced anything - only added for consideration. Please repeat after me: if you don't want to use automated paceline selection - please don't use it.

Further, Best of the LAST 3 Distance and Surface (or BLT/C) has been the Default PSS option for years now, and should surprise no one that is suddenly appears. Feel free to use it as a starting point then review the line choices and change them, or ignore it. For the PSS Screen Label 'gentz' saw and queried ('BLT/C Syndicate') - it is simply an 'artifact' of a prvious testing version and has already disappeared from the latest one. It's a test I did on doing Contender separation based on user-defined rules, and as mentioned in the Feature List, would run on whatever collection of pacelines the user came up with - automated or manual.

For the initial Study Bill Lyster did (thank you again Bill) - to validate whether any of these new factors were valuable - it would make no sense for him to make his own decisions about line selection as no one else could trust whether theirs wold be similar, and thus if the factors under study would perform the same in their hands. At least with an automated method, if you do the same as Bill did, you'll get the same results. Plus - if the research method were not automated, likely he would not have been able to gather a tenth the data he did.

Bill concluded (so far) more or less what I thought: the new Class Rating CR+ is much better than than the old one: CR. Whatever you think of CSR, it is highly predictive of Winners and in-the-money finishers - at the average mutuels and ROI stated. As are the Rx factors - even more so. Judge them now, or judge them later (I suggest later ...).

6. Please see Point #1.

That's all folks. Enjoy the rest of April - see you in May

Ted
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Old 04-16-2016, 01:08 AM   #23
Bill V.
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Look

Hi Ted

Enjoy your visit to the USA.
I don't care what you do with Doc's readouts
If you want to rename factors , Who cares . well I guess I do but I'm stubborn
If you want to call The F6 key Preceptor, or Wodswother, or Cravenator, Its fine with me, I'm just wishing you would call things what Doc left us


Gentz Ted is correct, If you set your RDSS to the Validator defaults
The lines picked by Preceptor will be EXACTLY the same as what you would
see on Val 4 by selecting the last 3 lines and then pushing the F6 key The only difference is some times on Validator when you push F6
you will get ties. The way doc left it. Which i liked because I then had to leave in both lines and I had to let the program readout tell me which was the better pace line

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Old 04-16-2016, 08:37 AM   #24
The Pook
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
Hi Ted and thanx for the detailed reply!
Are there things I would like to see added? Sure (not sure what else you have going with the new update) but for now THANK YOU for what I have!
Richie
Richie, nice work finding a gem like this at Keeneland. Sorry if this is getting off topic a bit in this thread but I was curious about your workup. I had the race similarly figured out although I did not actually bet it. I had the same four contenders with the same pace lines accept the 6 I used the last pace line. I can't figure what made you want to go back to the 7th line? Thoughts?

Much Thanks,
Pook
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Old 04-16-2016, 09:21 AM   #25
RichieP
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Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Richie, nice work finding a gem like this at Keeneland. Sorry if this is getting off topic a bit in this thread but I was curious about your workup. I had the race similarly figured out although I did not actually bet it. I had the same four contenders with the same pace lines accept the 6 I used the last pace line. I can't figure what made you want to go back to the 7th line? Thoughts?

Much Thanks,
Pook
Hi Pook
Looking at the pp's of the 3 and 7 I had the first call in about 47 and change to a 48. the 2 fastest races of the 6 including last line was against 46 1c paces. so looking at the pps I saw line 7 which fit perfect and it was a win against quality runners - negative on the horse for me was this - I didnt like the winning positions at 1c for this guy when I am trying to find a 3rd or 4th position runner, he's just positionally (compared to the 2 and 4) too much of a "martian" or out of the clouds runner.

Here are his pps as well as the winning #2 and the #4.

Hope it makes a bit of sense and FWIW I NEVER look back on losing bets(races). Never

Regards,
Richie
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Old 04-16-2016, 06:39 PM   #26
jscammer69
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Hey Ted,

I see that you will be out of town for a couple of weeks so have fun! When you get back I have a couple of questions.

1. Whatever happened to entropy, SPN, and LSP?
2. Is supplemental line score still figured the same way as old Sartin programs or is it with what shows up in RDSS2 with PF3, TS+F3, TS, and TPP? Or is SUPP LS in RDSS2 like old Sartin programs and you just don't show old factors?
3. Does new RDSS 2.1 now show all time calls and positions as DRF or still just 4? The Hat used 1/4 mile time in routes as well.
4. I read that Entropy was also good at getting the proper contenders and once was used to get a race down to 4 and even 3 with over 88% success. Is that not the case anymore?
5. I'm interested to see if you thought about making a contender screen comprised of APV, CR+, Entropy, CSR, and BLT SR?

Thanks and God bless for all your work!

James
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Old 04-17-2016, 11:46 AM   #27
Old Arkie Gal
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Fity Ways to Use RDSS, Fifty Shades of Gray, Fifty Ways to Leave Your Lover

My title is an allusion to Ted's remarks that there 17 or 71 ways to use RDSS and to the big tent of the Sartin methodology. I don't use the Match-Up but I stand in awe of those who are able to use it. The closest I come to using it is when I have one or several E6, E7, or E8s in a race and my attempt to discover if they have too little, too much, or enough early speed to win or lose. That at the very least is an attempt. Richie, thanks for your post it was an eye opener for me. I have not looked at the OTE and it's first fraction pace/ and or closeness to the pace. I expect that information will be applied in my future handicapping.
However, my purpose here is not to address the Match UP, but to say I am one of the contrarians who uses CSR following the guidelines outlined by rmath in earlier posts. It is not a stand alone number and I use it in conjunction with other numbers. It works for me and the way I use RDSS. I think there is a lot of room under that "big tent".
Pat
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Old 04-17-2016, 02:27 PM   #28
jscammer69
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Just to clarify question 3, the positions with lengths behind in routes at the quarter mile are not included in RDSS2.
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Old 04-22-2016, 06:03 PM   #29
Bill Lyster
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Exacta prices in the study - PLEASE TAKE NOTE

I was looking at possible exacta wagering possibilities in the statistics and it became apparent that the exacta data for West coast and East coast charts reports different information.

The West Coast charts report $1 exacta payoffs while the east coast charts report $2 payoffs, so all of the Belmont, Tampa Bay and Gulfstream exacta payoffs need to be divided in half so that they compare to the data reported for Del Mar and SA (or vice versa). I have not checked the pick three payout info, but I will report back after having done so.
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Old 04-22-2016, 06:18 PM   #30
Bill Lyster
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Exotics payoff revisions

Only West Coast tracks post $1 exacta payoffs; the rest post $2 payoffs;
All tracks report Daily Double payoffs as $2 bets;
SA/GP/TAM report pick three payoffs as $1 bets; AQU reports $2 payoff info;
SA/GP reports pick 4 payoffs for $0.50 bets;Tampa Bay reports pick 4 payoffs for $1.00 and AQU reports for $2 payouts.

I used the Brisnet Chart Archives for the information in the study.

So if you are doing any workouts based on horizontal play, please note you need to make adjustments for some of the information reported depending upon which tracks you are studying
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