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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-21-2017, 10:59 AM   #21
Bill Lyster
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi guys

Thanks for the deeper looking at the %BVD numbers

In testing, When I've had this situation, I have been doubling the shown % number and taking 10 points away from the total, as a penalty

So for race 8 today at Parx the winner Iggy Logo has two works in 21 days following a 40-day layoff
I have been rating horses like this as 78 + 78 -10 = 146 BVD
Now that I see that on days with less than 5 workouts there is no % number
So If a horse works on a day were not too many other horses work There should be no penalty right?

Thanks

Iggy won, He does pretty well after 30-40 day layoffs

Attachment 44302
Maybe another way to get confirmation that the second work was okay is to look at the SR rating. In this case a 93 where the %-rated first work was a 90. See also the works from farther back were in the mid 80's (SR wise).

In this case the lack of a lot of works at the distance would not be a concern. If the 2nd work had been 81-82 then perhaps a deduction from 2x the first might be more appropriate.

Bill
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