Delaware Race 1 workup - 8/29/18 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 08-29-2018, 12:26 PM

Tidy six-horse field with #7 scratched out.

Name: del1.jpg
Views: 371
Size: 82.5 KB

My lines. All horses will get a line and I will eliminate/hide by Prim LS/Perceptor Total.

#1 - Line 2. L1 is an "off" track and L4 is a turf sprint. L2 rates as best of comparable.
#2 - Line 2. L1 is an "off" track. Of L's 2-4, L2 rates as best of comparable rest.
#3 - Line 2. Last 3 are comparable and L2 is best of these.
#4 - Line 1. L2 is an "off" track, and L4-5 are turf routes. Of L1 and L3, L1 rates best comparable of the rest.
#5 - Line 2. L1 and L3 are "off" tracks, and L4 is a route. This leaves L2 and L5, and L2 rates the best comparable of the rest.
#6 - Line 1. L3-L5 are turf races, leaving L1 and L2. L1 is the best comparable of these.
#7 - SCRATCH
#8 - L4 - L1, L2 and L5 are "off" tracks. L3 and L4 are comparable, with L4 the best.

Jeebs · 08-29-2018, 12:38 PM

Name: primarynohides.png
Views: 363
Size: 32.9 KB

Taking #8 out of consideration. Its Prim LS is at the bottom, and gets no corollary support in any of the factors. When stacking up its TE against others in this matchup, it is woefully behind.

To get down to five runners, the next to go was #2, who is behind #5 on Prim LS, but is behind on Perceptor. Using my corollaries, #2 rated an 11 on the Balance readout (E/EP and L/EP) as well as V/DC. This was enough for me.

Down to five runners now.

Jeebs · 08-29-2018, 12:50 PM

Name: elgraph.png
Views: 339
Size: 27.6 KB

Of the contenders, #1 is a "Very Early" runner, while #4, 5 and 6 are "Middle Early" types. #3 is the "counter" energy.

Name: blbldel.png
Views: 350
Size: 45.0 KB

Less than 30 minutes to post time as I type this, and if #1 and #5 remain close to the ML odds on the tote, they appear as significant overlays.

Bill V. · 08-29-2018, 01:00 PM

Good skill Tim

Jeebs · 08-29-2018, 01:19 PM

I bet my top tier to Win #3 and played #1 and 5 the longshots equally to Win in smaller increments.

Jeebs · 08-29-2018, 01:23 PM

Name: resultdel.png
Views: 330
Size: 9.4 KB

"A" tiers #3 and 1 make proud here.

Lt1 · 08-29-2018, 03:38 PM

Nice job Tim. The win bets were pretty straight forward with the 3 being 5/2 and the 1 the longer odds horse of the remaining 2 top 3 horses. As for the exacta your record keeping should guide you. What is your hit rate when you play them. Keeping track models for both winners and the place horse is also a great help when playing them. It is solely up to you to decide whether to play Why not consider rolling doubles?. Believe it or not it is easier to win 2 races in a row then trying to hit the exacta in a lot of races Again nice job on this race.
Tim

RichieP · 08-29-2018, 04:16 PM

Awesome work Tim!!

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Handicapping Blind - Using Velocity PoH/TPR/Primary screens	Jeebs	Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)	24	05-31-2017 09:56 AM
Woodbine notes Saturday 4/30	Bill V.	Pace Makes the Race / TPR	66	05-21-2016 09:00 AM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST	Ted Craven	August Contest	1	07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Del Mar Race 9	Bill V.	General Discussion	2	07-23-2012 09:40 PM
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles	Ted Craven	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	19	03-22-2010 06:06 PM

08-29-2018, 12:26 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Delaware Race 1 workup - 8/29/18 Tidy six-horse field with #7 scratched out. My lines. All horses will get a line and I will eliminate/hide by Prim LS/Perceptor Total. #1 - Line 2. L1 is an "off" track and L4 is a turf sprint. L2 rates as best of comparable. #2 - Line 2. L1 is an "off" track. Of L's 2-4, L2 rates as best of comparable rest. #3 - Line 2. Last 3 are comparable and L2 is best of these. #4 - Line 1. L2 is an "off" track, and L4-5 are turf routes. Of L1 and L3, L1 rates best comparable of the rest. #5 - Line 2. L1 and L3 are "off" tracks, and L4 is a route. This leaves L2 and L5, and L2 rates the best comparable of the rest. #6 - Line 1. L3-L5 are turf races, leaving L1 and L2. L1 is the best comparable of these. #7 - SCRATCH #8 - L4 - L1, L2 and L5 are "off" tracks. L3 and L4 are comparable, with L4 the best.

08-29-2018, 12:38 PM	#2
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Eliminations/Hides Taking #8 out of consideration. Its Prim LS is at the bottom, and gets no corollary support in any of the factors. When stacking up its TE against others in this matchup, it is woefully behind. To get down to five runners, the next to go was #2, who is behind #5 on Prim LS, but is behind on Perceptor. Using my corollaries, #2 rated an 11 on the Balance readout (E/EP and L/EP) as well as V/DC. This was enough for me. Down to five runners now.

08-29-2018, 12:50 PM	#3
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Early/Late and BLBL Of the contenders, #1 is a "Very Early" runner, while #4, 5 and 6 are "Middle Early" types. #3 is the "counter" energy. Less than 30 minutes to post time as I type this, and if #1 and #5 remain close to the ML odds on the tote, they appear as significant overlays.

08-29-2018, 01:00 PM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Good skill Good skill Tim

08-29-2018, 01:19 PM	#5
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	I bet my top tier to Win #3 and played #1 and 5 the longshots equally to Win in smaller increments.

08-29-2018, 01:23 PM	#6
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Good outcome "A" tiers #3 and 1 make proud here.

08-29-2018, 03:38 PM	#7
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,164	Nice job Tim. The win bets were pretty straight forward with the 3 being 5/2 and the 1 the longer odds horse of the remaining 2 top 3 horses. As for the exacta your record keeping should guide you. What is your hit rate when you play them. Keeping track models for both winners and the place horse is also a great help when playing them. It is solely up to you to decide whether to play Why not consider rolling doubles?. Believe it or not it is easier to win 2 races in a row then trying to hit the exacta in a lot of races Again nice job on this race. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-29-2018, 04:16 PM	#8
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Awesome work Tim!! __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"