The Mind's Eye - Part 3 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 05-11-2008, 09:46 PM

As we move along with this series there will be an increasing level of thought and focus needed to win the race. This progression in degree of difficulty is EXACTLY what Hat did with me and he spent quite a bit of time with me on this subject when he was teaching me how to teach others.

This race will be a polytrack race at Arlington run at 5f. Before we start I need EVERYONE to read the opening post in this thread please.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3741

That was Jim's direct feedback to me regarding working these races. Let your "Mind's Eye" absorb it fully by reading it in a quiet place a few times ok?

Here is the field. The times you see are in tenths. There is a reason I am using this program for THIS race beside the fact that it is the one I am most comfortable with. You will see what I mean later on.

Use the SAME format and method of working this race as you did in the first 2 "Mind's Eye" races please.

1) POST up the running styles for the horses and when you have an early runner post his first fraction time when he wins or just misses please.

2) Then going ONLY by what you did in step 1 make a QUICK call on how the race will be WON. Early or Other than early. NOTHING ELSE please. You won't be "held" to your "call" ok? I will show you what I mean later in this race thread. There will be a "Hat Instruction" here that has NOT been posted before by design.

Do NOT pick or post a "winner" of the race at this stage please. Trust me. The degree of difficulty is now stepped up a notch.

EVERYONE is encouraged to participate.

RichieP · 05-11-2008, 09:47 PM

Balance of the field

raceman5 · 05-11-2008, 10:44 PM

I looked at this race and the only horse i wrote down was Gold Spike. In my mind he was the speed of the speed 21.7 and 44.7 i said to myself he blows this field away. got a great feel for this horse just as i did Big Brown in the derby. Now whether Gold Spike won or not i have no idea. Even if he did not i would still bet this horse again that is how confident i was in him.

Bob

punch18 · 05-11-2008, 11:18 PM

1 p
2 e 22.9
3 ep
4 p
5 e 22.6
6 ep
7 e 23
8 p

I belive there is a lot of pressure up front and will say other than early
punch

Bill Lyster · 05-12-2008, 12:07 AM

1-S or NF
2-E - 22.9
3-E - 21.7 TURF OR E/P VS 22.5
4-E/P
5-E - 22.5
6-E/P
7-E - 23.0
8-E/P

Race will run early but probably from just off lead. If that is true, is that considered OTE in this situation where most horses need to break well to contend?

RAMON201 · 05-12-2008, 06:56 AM

1. S
2. E - 22.9
3. E - 21.7
4. P
5. E - 22.6
6. P
7. E - 22.4 dirt
8. p

I see this race running early.

PeteC · 05-12-2008, 02:13 PM

#1 S, but went for the lead in a slow 24
#2 E 22.9
#3 E 21.7
#4 P
#5 E 22.6
#6 E 22.4
#7 E 22.4
#8 P

Even with the big edge for #3, my sense is to look OTE first in this race with so many E's bent on getting the lead.

shrink1 · 05-12-2008, 03:06 PM

1 can be E or S when he was an E slow 24
2 E 23.1
3 no poly but a good turf race 21.7 E
4 only poly line from TP 22.9 presser
5 E 22.6
6 Presser 22.6
7 no poly but turf @ 23
8 No poly or turf lines
I see the race as having a lot of early speed. If Gold Spike can get away I think he can blow away the field. However, a presser could possibly stalk and win if the early horses cook each other.
Ira

admin · 05-12-2008, 05:02 PM

Horse 1 EP
Horse 2 Early 22.9 line 7
Horse 3 Early 21.7 line 1
Horse 4 EP
Horse 5 Early 22.6 line 6
Horse 6 EP
Horse 7 Early Has not won on Turf or Poly
Horse 8 No races on Turf or Poly RS= Pres.

Rich It look like the race will run early
horse 3 getting the lead

Bill Lyster · 05-12-2008, 06:10 PM

Thinking ahead here a bit. I'm having trouble with the ultra fast time from the LS turf (freaky - one time stuff). I don't remember a lot of that Texas speed holding up in FG very often, so I'm suspect.

No disrespect to LS but isn't it considered a lower class track relative to AP? Wasn't one of The Hat's warnings to disregard horses from lower class venues when they move up the track ladder? or is LS close enough?

With all that on the table one could look at the sustained turf sprint from AP where the 5F time is nearly comparable to the LS finish time and conclude that the LS time might have some substance. Oh well, I'll wait for the rest of the direction because clearly I am confused right now.

05-12-2008, 05:02 PM	#9
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	eye 3 Horse 1 EP Horse 2 Early 22.9 line 7 Horse 3 Early 21.7 line 1 Horse 4 EP Horse 5 Early 22.6 line 6 Horse 6 EP Horse 7 Early Has not won on Turf or Poly Horse 8 No races on Turf or Poly RS= Pres. Rich It look like the race will run early horse 3 getting the lead

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05-11-2008, 09:46 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	The Mind's Eye - Part 3 As we move along with this series there will be an increasing level of thought and focus needed to win the race. This progression in degree of difficulty is EXACTLY what Hat did with me and he spent quite a bit of time with me on this subject when he was teaching me how to teach others. This race will be a polytrack race at Arlington run at 5f. Before we start I need EVERYONE to read the opening post in this thread please. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3741 That was Jim's direct feedback to me regarding working these races. Let your "Mind's Eye" absorb it fully by reading it in a quiet place a few times ok? Here is the field. The times you see are in tenths. There is a reason I am using this program for THIS race beside the fact that it is the one I am most comfortable with. You will see what I mean later on. Use the SAME format and method of working this race as you did in the first 2 "Mind's Eye" races please. 1) POST up the running styles for the horses and when you have an early runner post his first fraction time when he wins or just misses please. 2) Then going ONLY by what you did in step 1 make a QUICK call on how the race will be WON. Early or Other than early. NOTHING ELSE please. You won't be "held" to your "call" ok? I will show you what I mean later in this race thread. There will be a "Hat Instruction" here that has NOT been posted before by design. Do NOT pick or post a "winner" of the race at this stage please. Trust me. The degree of difficulty is now stepped up a notch. EVERYONE is encouraged to participate. Attached Images

05-11-2008, 09:47 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Balance of the field Attached Images

05-11-2008, 10:44 PM	#3
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Wow!!! I looked at this race and the only horse i wrote down was Gold Spike. In my mind he was the speed of the speed 21.7 and 44.7 i said to myself he blows this field away. got a great feel for this horse just as i did Big Brown in the derby. Now whether Gold Spike won or not i have no idea. Even if he did not i would still bet this horse again that is how confident i was in him. Bob

05-11-2008, 11:18 PM	#4
punch18 AlwNW3X Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 42	try 1 p 2 e 22.9 3 ep 4 p 5 e 22.6 6 ep 7 e 23 8 p I belive there is a lot of pressure up front and will say other than early punch

05-12-2008, 12:07 AM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	1-S or NF 2-E - 22.9 3-E - 21.7 TURF OR E/P VS 22.5 4-E/P 5-E - 22.5 6-E/P 7-E - 23.0 8-E/P Race will run early but probably from just off lead. If that is true, is that considered OTE in this situation where most horses need to break well to contend?

05-12-2008, 06:56 AM	#6
RAMON201 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 593	1. S 2. E - 22.9 3. E - 21.7 4. P 5. E - 22.6 6. P 7. E - 22.4 dirt 8. p I see this race running early. __________________ Every day I wake up above the grass its a good day !

05-12-2008, 02:13 PM	#7
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Mind's Eye 3 - Step 1 #1 S, but went for the lead in a slow 24 #2 E 22.9 #3 E 21.7 #4 P #5 E 22.6 #6 E 22.4 #7 E 22.4 #8 P Even with the big edge for #3, my sense is to look OTE first in this race with so many E's bent on getting the lead.

05-12-2008, 03:06 PM	#8
shrink1 Grade 1 Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Newton, N.J. Posts: 121	1 can be E or S when he was an E slow 24 2 E 23.1 3 no poly but a good turf race 21.7 E 4 only poly line from TP 22.9 presser 5 E 22.6 6 Presser 22.6 7 no poly but turf @ 23 8 No poly or turf lines I see the race as having a lot of early speed. If Gold Spike can get away I think he can blow away the field. However, a presser could possibly stalk and win if the early horses cook each other. Ira

05-12-2008, 06:10 PM	#10
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Thinking ahead here a bit. I'm having trouble with the ultra fast time from the LS turf (freaky - one time stuff). I don't remember a lot of that Texas speed holding up in FG very often, so I'm suspect. No disrespect to LS but isn't it considered a lower class track relative to AP? Wasn't one of The Hat's warnings to disregard horses from lower class venues when they move up the track ladder? or is LS close enough? With all that on the table one could look at the sustained turf sprint from AP where the 5F time is nearly comparable to the LS finish time and conclude that the LS time might have some substance. Oh well, I'll wait for the rest of the direction because clearly I am confused right now.