Practice race from "The Hat" - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-22-2006, 10:26 PM

Jim will come on tomorrow and talk about the race.

I posted this in another thread but want to repost it here please. It is THAT important to matching horses "The Hat" way. It is transforming man. Here it is
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANYONE seriously matching Jim's way who comes from a "value oriented" backround like me HAS to make every attempt to lose the EXPECTATION of payoff when working and matching a race. The difference is startling.

SERIOUSLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------

HIDE or somehow IGNORE the ml odds. HIDE or somehow IGNORE the ml odds.

all the best
Richie

Turbulator · 10-23-2006, 02:27 AM

I am going to interject a thought here, and anyone can correct me if I'm wrong.

When matching up horses a lot of people are also picking place and show horses. Very often, if properly executed, the matchup will find the winner, but other contenders will usually run out.

I belive Jim has even said that the matchup is for "picking winners."

I also don't see anything wrong with betting two horses to win now and then--price permitting, especially if you have two horses you can't separate.

However, exactas might be a tough proposition using the matchup. If you can't separate two horses, and bet both of them to win--it is much more likely that you will have the winner and an also ran--or two also rans, but not the exacta.

In my own personal experience you will get a cold exacta now and then when the race sets up for two distince horses, but more often than not you won't.

Bottom line: be very careful using the match up for exactas.

Now daily doubles and triples is a whole nother ball of wax.

THE HAT · 10-23-2006, 11:34 AM

Good work Guys.

Everyone recognized that the race would run other that early. I played and won this race, realizing that the race would run other than early. The five is a Sustained runner, the six an Early Presser and the seven is an Early Presser.

I can see the eight and the one will fight for the lead and the other early horses will lose interest in running, when they can not get the lead. I do not have any problem eliminating all of the early horses, or slow horses, because "fast horses" win races. The seven is slower than the five and six, out he goes. This leaves the five and six as the main contenders for win consideration. The six is faster and will be ahead of the five the entire race.

I do not play exactas, because I usually eliminate the place horse. In order to play exactas and trifectas
you must first find the winner. Then and only then look for the place horse.

The Hat

dugoutgold · 10-23-2006, 01:32 PM

Hi Jim and Rich, Really enjoying these posts. I have a long way to go but making some progress here. Since I still have probs with proper use of units of energy (not the smartest rooster in the henhouse here) I have been using the plot graphs in aodds98. Still have probs also getting the contenders down to 2 or 3(hangover from sofware dependency all these years) but the results are amazing. During 3 days of working Hawthorne ( just stabbing money wise here with 2 dollar bets) I played a total of 23 races making my decsions with the plot graph only after making notes of the fields running styles. I bet in all but 5 races just one horse and won 17 of them. However Im still not that confident to say I found the holy grail by any means. If I can figure out how to shrink the plot graphs I could post some examples. Its a great visual aid to me at this stage in the larning curve.
Keep up the great work guys!! Doug

emilio840 · 10-23-2006, 02:44 PM

Hi Jim.

Is there a special way to handle a 7 furlong race? I am having problems with this distance because there are a mixture of sprinters and Routers(that don't look fast). But the Routers seem to

On Sunday in the 10th race at wox there was a horse that wired the field and had a line of 21.4 44.1 111.1 It was the fastest sprinter in the race. And a Router who also had wired his field with times of 23.4 47.2 112 145.2. The Router that looked very slow compare to the sprinter won this race.

I know that nothing works 100%, but I was wondering if there is a special way of doing a 7f race because of the mixture of horses that it contains.

emilio

THE HAT · 10-23-2006, 05:15 PM

Emilio,

I assume you are talking about two different races, if so this brings up a number of questions.
Was there a fast sprinter in the second race? If this answer is no, then the router has a chance.
Is the horse an Early horse?
Ask yourself these question about routers entered in a sprint race.
Did he win the six furlong part of his route race?
Is the horse a lone Early, or will the race run other than early.

If the answer is yes on the last three questions, then the internal fraction of the router will give the horse
a shot. These are the question I ask my self as I match all race. I match all distances the same, but I do
look at the configuration of the track for all distances. The location of the starting gate tell you why
the first quarter is faster, or slower at some distances and tracks.

The Hat

VoodooFan · 10-23-2006, 08:09 PM

Mr. Bradshaw, can you elaborate on what kind of Horse the #6(the winner) is?At fractions of 46.2 and 46.4, he presses well. But at 47 and change, he either hangs, fades badly or wire the field. Based on his last race, I assumed he was not in condition. Also, can you elaborate on the kind of horses who seem to do well ONLY with a fast or extremely fast pace. What kind of Horses are these and what makes them tick?

Thanks VoodooFan

THE HAT · 10-24-2006, 12:21 PM

Voodoo,

The six horse has multiply running styles, or is an Early Presser that was forced to take the lead. His last two claims indicate that he has changed to an Early Presser. His last race shows that he moved to soon, which caused him to exert his energy and lose the race.

Concerning your other question:
Fast horses like a fast pace and slow horses like a slow pace.

The Hat

VoodooFan · 10-24-2006, 01:18 PM

Did the 47.3 , slower time, caused him to move too soon? He's an Early Presser now, and the slower time tried to make him Early, and he did'nt like it?

10-22-2006, 10:26 PM	#21
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Jim will come on tomorrow and talk about the race. I posted this in another thread but want to repost it here please. It is THAT important to matching horses "The Hat" way. It is transforming man. Here it is -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYONE seriously matching Jim's way who comes from a "value oriented" backround like me HAS to make every attempt to lose the EXPECTATION of payoff when working and matching a race. The difference is startling. SERIOUSLY ---------------------------------------------------------------------- HIDE or somehow IGNORE the ml odds. HIDE or somehow IGNORE the ml odds. all the best Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 10-22-2006 at 10:30 PM.

10-23-2006, 02:27 AM	#22
Turbulator Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 467	I am going to interject a thought here, and anyone can correct me if I'm wrong. When matching up horses a lot of people are also picking place and show horses. Very often, if properly executed, the matchup will find the winner, but other contenders will usually run out. I belive Jim has even said that the matchup is for "picking winners." I also don't see anything wrong with betting two horses to win now and then--price permitting, especially if you have two horses you can't separate. However, exactas might be a tough proposition using the matchup. If you can't separate two horses, and bet both of them to win--it is much more likely that you will have the winner and an also ran--or two also rans, but not the exacta. In my own personal experience you will get a cold exacta now and then when the race sets up for two distince horses, but more often than not you won't. Bottom line: be very careful using the match up for exactas. Now daily doubles and triples is a whole nother ball of wax. Last edited by Turbulator; 10-23-2006 at 02:31 AM.

10-23-2006, 02:44 PM	#25
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Jim, how do you handle a 7f race Hi Jim. Is there a special way to handle a 7 furlong race? I am having problems with this distance because there are a mixture of sprinters and Routers(that don't look fast). But the Routers seem to On Sunday in the 10th race at wox there was a horse that wired the field and had a line of 21.4 44.1 111.1 It was the fastest sprinter in the race. And a Router who also had wired his field with times of 23.4 47.2 112 145.2. The Router that looked very slow compare to the sprinter won this race. I know that nothing works 100%, but I was wondering if there is a special way of doing a 7f race because of the mixture of horses that it contains. emilio

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10-23-2006, 11:34 AM	#23
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Good work Guys. Everyone recognized that the race would run other that early. I played and won this race, realizing that the race would run other than early. The five is a Sustained runner, the six an Early Presser and the seven is an Early Presser. I can see the eight and the one will fight for the lead and the other early horses will lose interest in running, when they can not get the lead. I do not have any problem eliminating all of the early horses, or slow horses, because "fast horses" win races. The seven is slower than the five and six, out he goes. This leaves the five and six as the main contenders for win consideration. The six is faster and will be ahead of the five the entire race. I do not play exactas, because I usually eliminate the place horse. In order to play exactas and trifectas you must first find the winner. Then and only then look for the place horse. The Hat

10-23-2006, 01:32 PM	#24
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	Hi Jim and Rich, Really enjoying these posts. I have a long way to go but making some progress here. Since I still have probs with proper use of units of energy (not the smartest rooster in the henhouse here) I have been using the plot graphs in aodds98. Still have probs also getting the contenders down to 2 or 3(hangover from sofware dependency all these years) but the results are amazing. During 3 days of working Hawthorne ( just stabbing money wise here with 2 dollar bets) I played a total of 23 races making my decsions with the plot graph only after making notes of the fields running styles. I bet in all but 5 races just one horse and won 17 of them. However Im still not that confident to say I found the holy grail by any means. If I can figure out how to shrink the plot graphs I could post some examples. Its a great visual aid to me at this stage in the larning curve. Keep up the great work guys!! Doug

10-23-2006, 05:15 PM	#26
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Emilio, I assume you are talking about two different races, if so this brings up a number of questions. Was there a fast sprinter in the second race? If this answer is no, then the router has a chance. Is the horse an Early horse? Ask yourself these question about routers entered in a sprint race. Did he win the six furlong part of his route race? Is the horse a lone Early, or will the race run other than early. If the answer is yes on the last three questions, then the internal fraction of the router will give the horse a shot. These are the question I ask my self as I match all race. I match all distances the same, but I do look at the configuration of the track for all distances. The location of the starting gate tell you why the first quarter is faster, or slower at some distances and tracks. The Hat

10-24-2006, 12:21 PM	#28
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Voodoo, The six horse has multiply running styles, or is an Early Presser that was forced to take the lead. His last two claims indicate that he has changed to an Early Presser. His last race shows that he moved to soon, which caused him to exert his energy and lose the race. Concerning your other question: Fast horses like a fast pace and slow horses like a slow pace. The Hat