Louisiana Derby - Pace and Cap

Charlie D · 03-22-2010, 09:14 PM

Entries

Ted Craven · 03-27-2010, 11:31 AM

5 horses return from the Feb 20 G2 Risen Star:

Name: fg0327-10tand.gif
Views: 336
Size: 13.3 KB

The 2nd and 3rd finishers from that race who dogged Discreetly Mine all the way around are not returning, BUT Wow Wow Wow and likely The Program will put the early pressure on the Early Discreetly and appear to be able to apply a faster time than Discreetly faced on Feb 20. Plus a Tandem never repeats: the Feb 20 race will not run in duplicate fashion; some are still improving, some are taxed by the effort.

Name: fg0327-10.gif
Views: 309
Size: 35.2 KB

Name: fg0327-10.gif
Views: 309
Size: 35.2 KB

At least at the ML Odds, this sets up promisingly for #6 Ron the Greek and #9 Stay Put on top, with 6,7,9 in an exacta box, #13 Drosselmeyer in 2nd or 3rd position, with #5 A Little Warm in 3rd or 4th. An alternate exacta strategy might be 6,9 over 7,13

I won't be able to watch or bet this live, so I'll advance bet the win and exacta box above.

Good luck all!

Ted

Risen Star Stakes

Bill Lyster · 03-27-2010, 03:41 PM

I think that the 10 and 7 cancel each other out with the sprint presser #5-A Little Warm inheriting lead. The 6 is very sustained but looks to launch from too far back. The pace should be faster than the tandem with the 10-7 and 5 up front and Drosselmeyer gained against a 111 and change, so I am boxing the 5-13-9 and looking for value in the win column. The six would be one to place in the 2nd and 3rd slot, with perhaps more emphasis on the 3rd slot, IMO.

Good luck to all,

Charlie D · 03-27-2010, 04:44 PM

Right or wrong

Pace - Line 5 Wow Wow Wow.

Horses that have run at FG

#1 slow - OUT
#6 slow - OUT
#7 slow - OUT
#8 slow - OUT
#9 slow - OUT
#11 slow - OUT
#13 slow -OUT

#5 beats #2 on thier GP Match up,#2 also beaten at all distances except 4.5f

#2 - OUT

Leaves me 3,4, 5, 10, 12

Question.

Can #10 get an unconstested lead with open lengths and wire here?? i doubt it - OUT

3,4,5,12

#4 The Program, (got to take a stand here) although ML odds are not too bad, i'm not keen on betting horses doing something for the first time unless i think odds warrant a little interest, also, i'm thinking if this horse can't win Sham he needs a lot of help to win here - OUT

Right, so we are left with #3,#5, #12,. I think we have an OTE race and i think i'm looking for horses that can sit around 4th, 5th, 6th against the liikely good fractions set by #10

#5 stretching looks interesting, but ML odds of 4-1 are unpealling - OUT.

Contenders - #3 and #12, preference for former, latter minmum interest

Apologies if post comes across weird, but i'm using my "Minds Eye" and then posting what i see.

.

Charlie D · 03-27-2010, 06:46 PM

Quote:

#5 beats #2 on thier GP Match up,#2 also beaten at all distances except 4.5f

#3 seemed to be in trouble very early on for some reason, #5 ran a very nice race and #12 ran as ML suggested

Chart

alydar_ David · 03-27-2010, 09:49 PM

Nice handicapping fellows, even if it didn't turn out as planned.

Personally, I never beat myself up too much when things are out of whack two days before and after the full moon. The full moon is on the 29th this month which means you can expect an inordinate number of "things that don't make sense" through Wednesday.

Look at the results today at Santa Anita. Three win payoffs over $20 at Chalksville, U.S.A.

Now is a good time to pull the trigger on the those fourth and fifth rated BL/BL bombs you're normally afraid to bet.

I haven't checked all the tracks, but take a gander at these mutuels at Aqueduct and Dubai:

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Kentucky Derby Step By Step	Bill V.	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	21	11-23-2011 08:37 PM
Release Notes - Version 0.98.7	Ted Craven	RDSS Info, Reference	2	07-17-2009 11:09 AM
Derby File 2009	Ted Craven	Speculator	0	04-30-2009 08:01 AM
interesting observations	Tim Y	General Discussion	0	01-22-2009 03:39 PM

03-22-2010, 09:14 PM	#1
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Louisiana Derby Entries Attached Images __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

03-27-2010, 11:31 AM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	5 horses return from the Feb 20 G2 Risen Star: The 2nd and 3rd finishers from that race who dogged Discreetly Mine all the way around are not returning, BUT Wow Wow Wow and likely The Program will put the early pressure on the Early Discreetly and appear to be able to apply a faster time than Discreetly faced on Feb 20. Plus a Tandem never repeats: the Feb 20 race will not run in duplicate fashion; some are still improving, some are taxed by the effort. At least at the ML Odds, this sets up promisingly for #6 Ron the Greek and #9 Stay Put on top, with 6,7,9 in an exacta box, #13 Drosselmeyer in 2nd or 3rd position, with #5 A Little Warm in 3rd or 4th. An alternate exacta strategy might be 6,9 over 7,13 I won't be able to watch or bet this live, so I'll advance bet the win and exacta box above. Good luck all! Ted Risen Star Stakes __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-27-2010 at 11:34 AM.

03-27-2010, 03:41 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	I think that the 10 and 7 cancel each other out with the sprint presser #5-A Little Warm inheriting lead. The 6 is very sustained but looks to launch from too far back. The pace should be faster than the tandem with the 10-7 and 5 up front and Drosselmeyer gained against a 111 and change, so I am boxing the 5-13-9 and looking for value in the win column. The six would be one to place in the 2nd and 3rd slot, with perhaps more emphasis on the 3rd slot, IMO. Good luck to all,

03-27-2010, 04:44 PM	#4
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Right or wrong Pace - Line 5 Wow Wow Wow. Horses that have run at FG #1 slow - OUT #6 slow - OUT #7 slow - OUT #8 slow - OUT #9 slow - OUT #11 slow - OUT #13 slow -OUT #5 beats #2 on thier GP Match up,#2 also beaten at all distances except 4.5f #2 - OUT Leaves me 3,4, 5, 10, 12 Question. Can #10 get an unconstested lead with open lengths and wire here?? i doubt it - OUT 3,4,5,12 #4 The Program, (got to take a stand here) although ML odds are not too bad, i'm not keen on betting horses doing something for the first time unless i think odds warrant a little interest, also, i'm thinking if this horse can't win Sham he needs a lot of help to win here - OUT Right, so we are left with #3,#5, #12,. I think we have an OTE race and i think i'm looking for horses that can sit around 4th, 5th, 6th against the liikely good fractions set by #10 #5 stretching looks interesting, but ML odds of 4-1 are unpealling - OUT. Contenders - #3 and #12, preference for former, latter minmum interest Apologies if post comes across weird, but i'm using my "Minds Eye" and then posting what i see. . __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 03-27-2010 at 05:01 PM.

03-27-2010, 09:49 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Nice handicapping fellows, even if it didn't turn out as planned. Personally, I never beat myself up too much when things are out of whack two days before and after the full moon. The full moon is on the 29th this month which means you can expect an inordinate number of "things that don't make sense" through Wednesday. Look at the results today at Santa Anita. Three win payoffs over $20 at Chalksville, U.S.A. Now is a good time to pull the trigger on the those fourth and fifth rated BL/BL bombs you're normally afraid to bet. I haven't checked all the tracks, but take a gander at these mutuels at Aqueduct and Dubai: Attached Images