Preakness

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Tom:

If that effort 2 weeks ago in Louisville can be repeated tomorrow and he does it early enough to win, watch out at the Belmont at a mile and a half.
Vinnie

When was the last time a horse came from "dead last" to win the Belmont?

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

When was the last time a horse came from "dead last" to win the Belmont?

the plodder Editor's Note came from a way back

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

the plodder Editor's Note came from a way back

Thanks Tim. You only had to go back 13 years to find one that was close to "dead last". And I'm reasonably sure that if you went back another 13 years and another 13 years you would have an equally hard time finding a horse that won the Belmont from the "dead last" position.

Call it a "specific race model". It is a rare occasion when a horse wins the Belmont from "dead last" or even "way back", even though it is a mile and a half race.

Maybe this year will be one of those "odd" years, but I, for one, would not bet on it.

[Vinnie]

I believe a good question and one that is more indicative of Mine That Bird's current form and ability is when was the last time a horse came from last to nearly first in the Preakness only missing by a mere length a race considerably shorter in distance than the Belmont). As long as this horse stays anywhere near the back of the pack at the Classic distances right now he is potentially dangerous with that extra special Late Kick Potential (LKP)..

He clearly ran down/by all other horses in the race. I know that it is saying quite alot, but, if Rachel hadn't changed ownership and hence wasn't run in the Preakness race, we would be looking at a potential Triple Crown winner in MTB right now.

[Tim Y]

Afleet Alex was well back: his % medians predicted that too

[thepace]

thanks Ted