Segments Screen Question

[Mark]

Using the Bradshaw recommended method of selecting initial pacelines, choosing the POWER LINE for each horse, I end up with:

The #5 horse should be sitting 3rd behind the dueling #2 and #7 and overtake them around the turn into the straightaway.
One of the best ways to determine how a horse will run off a long layoff is their first lifetime start, which info not always available. Look at how this horse has been trained it is "Old School" textbook. They did all the preliminary stuff at the farm and brought her to the track for 3 5f works for stamina and then worked on speed 4f, 4f, 3f and a 2f blowout 5 days ago. This mare is a full year older than when she won her first lifetime start, more mature, stronger.
Going to carry a prime bet for me at 3/1 or better

[Mark]

Same deal, only in this case the horse is either broken and they are trying to lose him for $10,000 or he is set:

POWER LINE from first lifetime start, fastest horse in the race, also versatile and can run off the pace. Good works for the return, fought for 1/2 mile head and head on a slow surface, back in 12 days. At anything over 6/1 I would bet this horse to win and place.

Feeling Froggy today

[Rivegauche610]

Mark, thanks for this insightful post. I'd like to talk to you about your paceline selection; I'm going to speculate you choose them yourself based on your own analysis. I've been relying on the algorithms, and its very interesting to me how a slight change in one paceline on one horse changes the whole complex of the race on the segments screen. - Kevin

[Peteman]

Old model says sp-1-2, win ap-1-3 place.

[Mark]

I don't use DTV, I only use ITV. Actually I only look at the Original screen as the others use adjusted data, especially when you use track variant. I am an advocate of Jim Bradshaw and his student Richie P.
This is not a method for everyone. In fact, few seem to either understand it or just don't believe in it. It ignores most of what mainstream handicapping espouses. This is the way they handicapped before computers and speed figures and such. That's why you still can get very good prices.
The #5 horse has been off 193 days. Most everyone will tell you not to bet this horse. Not recent! Well, every horse has a story and if you fixate on one race and don't look at the entire horse's resume, then shame on you. WO is a tough track to win over first time off layoff so this is a risky proposition. But the horse has had phenomenal handling. Owned by someone who has a training track to prep the horse over, won her first lifetime start. Off that race over a year ago she looks to be nearly unbeatable. And she has matured in the last year and probably will be a bunch faster now. She could win by 5 or fade in the stretch but at the right price, she is worth the risk. But you don't see this horse if you are only looking at the last line or best of the last 3.

[Ted Craven]

Since this thread is no longer exclusively focused on how to reconcile the RDSS Segments screen with MPH Pro, using WO Race 6 and Blurricane as an example, and since Kevin doesn't seem to mind the wandering focus, well, here's my 2 cents with yet further screens:

Odds seem generous enough to bet on both #2 and #5, Top BLBL, VDC and several other factors (Sartin Methodology, 2-horse wagering ...??). Using longer than 5f lines, though the top 2 don't really change if you do.



Let's see where odds settle at post time ...

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Result: 2-6-1. The 2-5 combo Win bet is one I would take regularly, even with the #2 going at 7/5 finally. They were Top 2 (on my preferred readout screen) and the #5 was a generous 4-1. Betting the #2 is essentially a hedge against losing the wager (and making a modest payoff), while rooting for the #5 (who perhaps still needed another race returning to action).



Ted

[Peteman]

Good call on 2 Ted,I liked but was bet down.I went 5-6,sorry these threads
wander with every post.

[Rivegauche610]

The results in screen 2, and my RDSS analysis of the race, screen 1.

[Rivegauche610]

Here is my BL/BL screen: