Bill V - this one's for you

[Bill Lyster]

One of your favorite race distances from yesterday at Keeneland:

5.5 furlongs on turf, with all earlies nullifying each other. Sweet!

[Segwin]

11 at 30/1 - wow.

What a beautiful Trifecta too!

[Bill V.]

Thanks Bill L.

Good for you ! getting this one
Too bad the smart money bet it down from its 50/1 ML

No really, I'm glad it matched up well I would have looked elsewhere

There are lots of positives here but a few knocks too

Its good win for you .

Bill

[Appy]

How is it the screenshot shows two lines for 11 Queen but only one for all others?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Appy

How is it the screenshot shows two lines for 11 Queen but only one for all others?

hello Appy

Bill L decided to use two different pace lines - line 2 and line 6
I guess because line 2 was on a poly track and line 6 was a turf sprint
in what appears to be the horse's best LP rating on the turf.

You can select more than 1 pace line for a horse by right clicking on
the pace line check box




-

[Bill Lyster]

My reasoning was since I had eliminated all the early contenders I wanted a horse that could run from 4th or farther back, pass horses and do well. My person philosophy is that poly and turf are almost interchangeable so good closes on both surfaces and good TPRs helped the process. I probably could have eliminated the two from contention as being pulled along too close to the fast pace, but I did not. The fact that the winner had done well in a grade 3 race two back only helped.

[Appy]

Bill Lyster, keep getting paid for plays like that one and we're going to have to change your username to BL Bill.

[Bill Lyster]

Some one asked why I used line 6 for the two horse. See below.

I could see that the horse was in form and in my mind she was not an early horse, wo i used the best turf sprint in the PPs. I had at least 3 early horses that would cancel each other out so I was looking for sustained horses that could win from 4th or farther out. This horse won twice from 6th at the first call, so I used the best line.

This horse finished 3rd I believe, but more importantly the first 3 finishers ran by all the earlies providing great payday.

Regards,

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

My reasoning was since I had eliminated all the early contenders I wanted a horse that could run from 4th or farther back, pass horses and do well.

Good morning Bill:

How did you arrive at the decision to eliminate the early runners?

[Bill Lyster]

From the first panel of this post see the 7 9 and 10 listed as non contenders. All of them have run against 21.xx and 43.xx. The 10 and 9 gave up the lead at this pace or slower and the 7's TPR is less than anyone of the closers by a couple of points. The 2 finished in a faster time 54.5 than any early horse, so toss the earlies. They will and did tire each other out to be passed by most of the late horses.

At this distance it happens quite often.

Regards,