Pace Projection

[joefour]

Hi All,

I have been learning the Mathup for a number of months now, with varying degrees of success. Today I reread the 5 steps again and realized there is a point in there that I must have glossed over before and am hoping that one of you who is better versed in the Matchup than I am can explain this point to me. Here is the quote, verbatim: "1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been on the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace will have difficulty winning."

My question concerns the section that I have typed in boldface. Are we talking about the last race only, or any recent race, or any of the races? Same question for finding the final time; does it mean recent, or anywhere in the PPs? This has gotten me confused, and I would really like to get the Matchup down pat. I have searched through the threads, looking for an example or explanation. Maybe I missed it somehow. Any steering in the right direction to an answer would be greatly appreciated.

[atkinsrr]

Hey joefour...hope I can answer your question....I have a copy of Jimmys book in front of me "The Match UP" and on page54 he writes: Quote "The selection of the line that best predicts how the horse will run in today's race is the "key" in using the Match Up. Look at the total past performance to decide the best line that matches the pace and represents the running style of the horses in today's match up". On previous pages in the book he is showing examples of pace lines that he was using and he was going back thru a horses pp's and on some of them he was underlining more than one P/L and going back 9 races........hope this helps

[joefour]

Thanks Atkins. I know I've read that passage somewhere. But it still leaves me wondering what that part of the 5 steps is talking about when it describes establishing 1C, 2C and final time when there is no inveterate need to lead type in the mixup. One needs to pick a probable pace when there are no earlies in the bunch. What I have been doing with these type of races when I'm not passing them is to b'guess and b'gosh the best runner against the fastest last pace run, but it doesn't always turn out to be the right thing to do. Sometimes yes, sometimes no.

[atkinsrr]

I see what U R saying....I would suggest getting Jims book if you are going to specialize with the Match up...Gamblers Book Club in Las Vegas may have it and possibly
Ted may have copies available...I've read it twice but I basically use RDSS2 and Ultimate PP's /with comments from BrisNet and both serve me pretty well, this can be a very confusing vocation at times that's why I pass a lot more races than I bet on and sometimes I still get fooled like I did in the G2 Race @ DMR sat nite when that #8 horse won...even re-working the race after it was over I still couldn't get it in there.....good luck, catch you later

[joefour]

I wish I could get my hands on Matchup 2. I've looked on the net to no avail, and if I could find it, I probably couldn't afford it. Does it say in there about projecting a pace in a near-paceless race full of chasers?

[clavezza]

Hi JoeFour,

I have the Match Up 2 Book. We can work something out with shipping cost. I can lend it out and you can return it to me when finished. PM me if you want to proceed.


Chris Lavezza

Handle name is clavezza

[Because I Can Jim]

joefour,
In answer to your question....
That is referring to the "Dream Race". See pages 37 thru 47 of the Paceline Manual paying particular attention to the forms on pages 44 and 45 to get some idea as to what it is about.
The matchup is easy to project when you have a bunch of early horses who need the lead. But, what do you do when they are a bunch of sustained and pressers? You project the pace of the race from the POR of the running lines without using the beaten lengths of the horses. You are not using any particular line. You are going back to good lines to see what the horses can run against. You are creating a dream scenario to mathcup the horses (which is all we are doing anyway since the race has not been run yet). In the beginning, Jimmy picked pacelines like everyone else. He then started to go back lines as part of his evolution and finally was picking part of a line here and part of a line there. It is an evolution to get to that point. If you start picking parts here and there, chaos, confusion and losing will ensue. What is on pages 44 and 45 are the tools to get to that point.
Start with projecting the pace using whole lines taking the POR as the dream race to matchup. Go back if you have to as to what makes sense. For example, why use a last line where the horse cannot run well against a 46.2 and today it is facing a horse whose POR is 47 for a 6 furlong race and this horse can run agianst it.
However, beware, in projecting the pace like this, in a race where there are no early horses, you can matchup each horse to each other, but, the real question will become, "who will take the lead?" which does effect the dynamics of the race.
Hope that helps.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by atkinsrr

I see what U R saying....I would suggest getting Jims book if you are going to specialize with the Match up...Gamblers Book Club in Las Vegas may have it and possibly
Ted may have copies available...I've read it twice but I basically use RDSS2 and Ultimate PP's /with comments from BrisNet and both serve me pretty well, this can be a very confusing vocation at times that's why I pass a lot more races than I bet on and sometimes I still get fooled like I did in the G2 Race @ DMR sat nite when that #8 horse won...even re-working the race after it was over I still couldn't get it in there.....good luck, catch you later

Hello Akinsrr
I did not get a chance to work DMR Saturday, I know this is after the fact.
but I hope this helps.
Looking at this race, Its a Grade 2 150,000 turf race 8.5 furlongs.

Here is the winner, Look at its running style, Its last race was a plus line
going 9 furlongs on the BHP poly Its also a Grade 2 race.



Look how it won its MS race on the turf as a Sustained.
It also has won a Grade 2 (on poly) as a Sustained.
Now look at how it won Sat night - As a Sustained.

FTL gives great advice, I now look at this screen as a vital readout.

Here are all the contenders, they all have + lines
Looking at this screen, we can seen the running lines, the speed ratings, the running style, the speed points, and blbl, We can also see the class of race from which each horse earned its + pace line.
Looking at this factor -A Grade 2 class of race, the 8 stands out above the rest.



Not that I know about work outs but I do see two turf workouts at 5 and 6 furlongs to prepare for this grade 2 turf race

Thanks Bill

[joefour]

Clavezza, thanks for the offer;I'll send you a PM.

Jim and Bill, thanks for the suggestions and examples, looks like I'm going to delve back into that part of the manual and make some sense of it. My goal is to make my 70%+ wins with only one horse instead of betting two. A looong way to go yet....

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by joefour

Clavezza, thanks for the offer;I'll send you a PM.

Jim and Bill, thanks for the suggestions and examples, looks like I'm going to delve back into that part of the manual and make some sense of it. My goal is to make my 70%+ wins with only one horse instead of betting two. A looong way to go yet....

Joe,

This is a completely unrealistic expectation - 70% hit rate (Wins) betting a single horse (unless you meant something else). This is not achievable, at least not by mortals.

If your goal was 70% hit rate betting 2 horses - even that would be a stretch, and anyway is unnecessary. By selectivity in races bet, and by demanding sufficient minimum odds from your single horse or from both your 2 horses, and by picking races with matchups you can see the public is getting wrong (e.g. recently beaten front runners who have no early competition today, etc) - a 50% hit rate betting 2 horses or 25-30% betting 1 horse will be to-die-for.

I worry you will get discouraged setting yourself the unattainable goal you mention above.

Ted