Value

[trotman]

I have been asked and PM'd what is value and the answer IMO is, if your mindset is all about picking and hitting the winner then stop there, you will never find the value. But I will tell you that value will always leap out at you,win or lose and the bet will be right for the fact you had value and not just a overbet winner.

[polambi]

Isn't value any horse that is not the post time favorite? or any horse that is going off at higher odds than its morning line odds? Gotta be one of those

[chris]

I have great difficulty with absolute statements such as Value will be found in any horse other than the post time favorite, some do well devining value using this method, I've not been so blessed. As to horses going off at higher odds than the morning line, it can be a soure of Value; if you settle on this approach, let us know how it works out for you. The problem I have with relying on the morning line is that all morning line makers are not created equal; some are more capable than others. Many split their duties, as line maker, with other tasks at the track. At the smaller venues don't be surprised to see them pouring soda's and selling popcorn from the concession stand.


Had a friend who swore by the morning line and bet accordingly - he had his moments. I once asked him what exactly was the morning line, what were the constituent parts that led someone to post that this horse will be 2-1, while this one will be 6/5? His response was not that unusual, I've heard it from others as well, but he had been handicapping for some time and I had expected more. His response was that the morning line is the line makers estimate (taken from percentages) of what each of the horses chance was to win the race, and changed to the format we know today, 2-1, 3-1, 7-2, etc., etc.,

He was a dear friend so kid gloves were required. Friend or not, he was wrong! The morning line is the line makers estimate of how the crowd will bet the race, not what a particular horses chances are to win. Some times the morning line favorite and off-time favorite are one and the same and nearly everyone at that track is happy except me. But I have been spared having to make the decision of what to do with my $5.60.

Best to all

chris

[For The Lead]

Chris is correct when he says, "The morning line is the line makers estimate of how the crowd will bet the race, not what a particular horses chances are to win."

[trotman]

Chris,
For The Lead is spot on, the trackman's estimation of the off line. Your statement of anything outside of the favorite is value IMO is what many will consider value to be, and it's not per se. Again IMO I have a line where I believe said horse should be and to me beyond that where I decide is value
to me is value. I am outside the box on this and before you short what I'm saying you need to re-evaluate. When someone claims that Value seekers have long runouts of nothing, it's because IMO they haven't a clue, seeking short priced under valued "Winners" is your demise for they abound in every race. Value, you look for.

[alydar_ David]

Two points:

1) The Morning Line never adds up to 100% probability; it's always more.

For example, look at last Sunday's third race at Gulfstream Park.

#1 Squadron A 8-1 which equates to an 11% chance of winning
#2 Hour Man 8-1 which equates to an 11% chance of winning
#3 Fogonazo 4-1 which equates to an 20% chance of winning
#4 Recalling Memories 6-1 which equates to an 14% chance of winning
#5 Gombey Dancer 5/2 which equates to a 29% chance of winning
#6 Frozen Four 5-1 which equates to an 17% chance of winning
#7 Retreive 3-1 which equates to an 25% chance of winning

Add up the probabilities and you get 127%. Ergo, the morning line never represents true probabilities.

2) The track oddsmaker does not always make odds representing how he thinks the public will bet. Why? For the simple reason he doesn't want to unduly influence the public.

For example, suppose he thinks the horse should be 2/5 Fair Odds. And he imagines the public will probably stomp it down to that. Will he list it at 2/5?
Answer: rarely. He'll be more inclined to list it at 3/5 so as not to discourage betting on the other contestants. Years ago 4/5 was the magic number.

[Dorianmode]

Usually I have found the racing public at Gulfstream to be somewhat astute. At least they have a knowledgeable fan base, many days. I was shocked to see them let Tripolar, yesterday, 3/20/13, in race #1, go off at 22/1 !! There IS value out there.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Dorianmode

This is a very gettable winner in the methodology
here are my Phase 1 readouts
Notice the running styles of each horse
There are no P SP or S horses
There is a 3 way tandem with the 3 5 and 6
and none of these horse with Early energy
running patterns will be able to keep up with horse 2

In Phase 1 the 2 has a 3 point advantage early
In RDSS it's the 0.0 horse at the F1 and F2 segments

I used last line on all the horses



Attachment 33902

[Dorianmode]

I dropped the 6, 7 and 4, and used the same pacelines, except for the1 RDSS used the 2nd line, and I left it, as it didn't make any difference to the dutch, as I recall. Interesting. Thanks Bill.

[Dorianmode]

DD this evening, #10. (I look for intra-race late moves, I assume anyone would have noticed this one).