Parx 9/9

[Blackrose]

Hi Matt
I want to thank you for the post that was an awesome race. I tried to post this before work but it got lost in cyber space so here is another try. I think the answer to your question lies in the POR an POH tabs. This probably isn't fair since I already know the winner but this is my general approach. I threw out the 1 an 7 since they did seem to have much that left the 6,8,4 and 2. The 2, 6, and 8 seem early so I deal with those first. I usually have a note pad with me so I can write this stuff down. I look at the POH tab of each horse an note what they run when they win at the f3 an f1 calls in general. The 2 horse doesn't have any but generally runs between 59.7 an 57 with 56 or so 2f an closes in the 50.2 range. The 53.9 was in the mud so doesn't count. His TS or ap is between 55.6 an 56 notice this varies little with each horse. The 6 horse won with a 60.5 f1 an f3 49.3. He generally runs around a 58.9-60.5 f1 with a 54.1-49.9 f3. His TS is between 55.3-56.2 this year. Okay on to the 8 wins at 58.7 but can throw 60 plus fractions even a 61. f3 was 51.7-49.3 but generally around 51.7. TS 56.6-55.9 From this I can see the 2 is in trouble he hasn't run a ts over 56 in 10 races he would have to run his best race to compete with the 6 an 8, an he doesn't seem to have a pace advantage at the first second or 3rd fractions. He's out
Leaves the 6,8 the 6 has only run a 60 once while the 8 has done it 4 times
and when the 6 did run that 60 he ran a f3 in 49 while the 8 runs it an throws 51 plus f3 fractions. So this is where you look at the POR tab what happens to the 6 when he runs against a 59 or 60 fraction 1 first an the rest 2nd's or 3rds. An he ran a 49.5 to win one. The 8 ran a 49.3 3f with a 61.1 f1.
Also notice the 6th last race he coasted 58.9 7ths best f1 55.2 7th best followed by a 54.1 1st. Notice the 2 an 7 second call they hardly ever run a 55.2 more like 56. The 6 won't be able to get that 55.2 against those 2. The question then is do you use that last line as the way the 6 really runs? If you say no an take his second line he drops down to 4th tier. I had it 8,2,4,6 with the 2 out 8,4,6. The 4 didn't really figure his ts is around 55.7.
thanks Jim