Pace Projection

[joefour]

Ted,

Don't worry about me; I'll be fine.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by joefour

My goal is to make my 70%+ wins with only one horse instead of betting two. A looong way to go yet....

I hate to burst your dreams, but that's not going to happen. Mind you, you may just have days where it all goes your way, I've had a time that I won six of seven in one day and the loss only happened because my ex bought the wrong ticket.

That's not why she's the ex though.

Another time I was five for five because I spotted an inside early speed bias.

Presently at Saratoga, I'm "only" winning 32% but I'm making 79 cents profit on every dollar wagered. That's because I pick my spots although I handicap the NYRA tracks every day in which the track is labeled fast so that I can maintain my track model which I compile by hand so that I can make observations while inputting.

I bet nothing below 20K claimers, no maiden races and nothing with two "unknowns" such as layoffs or no pace lines (as in foreign horses competing here for the first time).

I have certain odds requirements that I adhere to also. My form of play is all based on finding my weak spots and avoiding them. It's also designed to ease the tension that comes when I hit a bad streak.

My pace line selection process is fairly rigid, that eliminates a lot of guesswork but it also puts me on overlays that keep me in the black despite my rarely finishing a meeting with more than 38% winners playing single horses and win bets only.

My suggestion is not to pursue the impossible, but to work for eliminating the losers that eat up your bankroll and wreak havoc on your frame of mind.

[joefour]

Originally Posted by clore1030

I hate to burst your dreams, but that's not going to happen. Mind you, you may just have days where it all goes your way, I've had a time that I won six of seven in one day and the loss only happened because my ex bought the wrong ticket.

That's not why she's the ex though.

Another time I was five for five because I spotted an inside early speed bias.

Presently at Saratoga, I'm "only" winning 32% but I'm making 79 cents profit on every dollar wagered. That's because I pick my spots although I handicap the NYRA tracks every day in which the track is labeled fast so that I can maintain my track model which I compile by hand so that I can make observations while inputting.

I bet nothing below 20K claimers, no maiden races and nothing with two "unknowns" such as layoffs or no pace lines (as in foreign horses competing here for the first time).

I have certain odds requirements that I adhere to also. My form of play is all based on finding my weak spots and avoiding them. It's also designed to ease the tension that comes when I hit a bad streak.

My pace line selection process is fairly rigid, that eliminates a lot of guesswork but it also puts me on overlays that keep me in the black despite my rarely finishing a meeting with more than 38% winners playing single horses and win bets only.

My suggestion is not to pursue the impossible, but to work for eliminating the losers that eat up your bankroll and wreak havoc on your frame of mind.

Point well taken.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by joefour

Hi All,

use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race.

Look for pressers at todays track and distance

I would really like to get the Matchup down pat. I have searched through the threads, looking for an example or explanation. Maybe I missed it somehow. Any steering in the right direction to an answer would be greatly appreciated.

If you want to get the Match Up down pat listen to The Hat as well via Audio Tapes in Library.

"i don't pick pacelines, i pick horses" The Hat

[Charlie D]

Not the same procedure, but it is the Match Up Tom Brohamer style.

1) Analyse the early part of the race. Evaluate the chances of the horse involved in that part of the scenario then disqualify runners who do not measure up.

2) Evaluate the Pressers in the race.Most often, a weak early pace picture strongly favours this type. They have first run at the leaders and must be given strong consideration.

3) Consider the closers in the race. In most races these are the least probable winners. Avoid closers that unable to reach a striking position by the stretch call. They are proven losers at every track in the country and only win with a complete collapse of the pace.

The former is simple. Unfortunately, most players have little organisation in the approach and often proceed too quickly to betting decisions. This procedure will give each type of runner it's proper due. It will also ensure an adequate understanding of the pace picture for the races you are about to bet.

Excerpt from Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer which can be found at good book stores.

Learn to see and you too will be picking horses and not pacelines.

[joefour]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Not the same procedure, but it is the Match Up Tom Brohamer style.


Excerpt from Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer which can be found at good book stores.

Learn to see and you too will be picking horses and not pacelines.

Thanks Charlie, every little bit helps towards mastery.