Kentucky Derby 2022 Discussion

[Bill Lyster]

Based on Scott B's 10 points (only partially verified by me and others) here is the revised screen shot. Any horse with an "X" failed one or more of the 10 points

I was confused by the meydan info and what followed. It could be that the metric distances were converted to yards. I used the time from what was posted about the Meydan races in any event.

except for the last six entries the horses were sorted by early running position. Note that Causeway and Zozos and Simplification are starting from 17th, 19th and 13th post positions and could be compromised if not leading first turn.

[ClockerDan]

I am saying- texting that ECHO ZULU WILL CRUSH THE OAKS FIELD

[lone speed]

Bill

Yes the metric splits were converted to furlongs similar to stateside

Gene who is one of the poster on this board provided the conversion. I just used the same ratio for each splits. In Meydan. They have no run up from the starting gate.

[Bill Lyster]

Well, that would even complicate matters further, wouldn't it. I looked into run ups a couple of years ago and the differences between tracks really amazed me. Some had 30-50 feet and others as much as 150 feet (so why not call these mile races 1 mile, 40 yarders? etc. With the time starting at the gate, or velocity "0" no wonder its hard to gage equivalent first and second fraction times.

For me, I'll just stick with what RDSS says and live with it.

[Ted Craven]

RDSS data file for the Derby (and Oaks) is available now.



Ted

[Ted Craven]

Here is a YouTube video of the UAE Derby won by Crown Pride, runner up Summer is tomorrow who lead until the very end, finishing 2nd.

The video has a timer which can be used to time the sections, if that is of interest.



Ted

[ClockerDan]

TY TYVM for the video the rase was/is great to watch

even on an american surface the horse seems a little too slow

blood lines are there -- maybe a different trainer

[Ted Craven]

Don't forget the old adage 'a horse runs as fast as it NEEDS to, not as fast as it CAN'. Do you think Summer is Tomorrow would set a pace any faster than it did (whatever that pace was - I didn't time it yet) if it didn't have to? It lead until the very final few meters. And thus, does the final time (notably slower than the other 9.5 times) mean it cannot run faster if it needs to?

The same goes for Crown Pride: it overcame that same pace from 4th/5th most of the race through final stretch run. Our question is: can it overcome a faster pace?

Summer seems to be a typical front runner. Not sure if Crown is a typical presser.

FWIW the UAE Derby is 1900m or 9.44 furlongs, close enough to 9.5 to not matter much.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Final comment (maybe) on the 2 foreign runners Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride. A long standing measurement on comparing foreign horses to North American raced ones is to take the fastest TrackMaster SR in the highest class race (supplied by TimeForm, partner of Equibase for international race measurements). Has often been insightful on Breeders' Cup days with many classy Europeans.

I don't know if a foreign raced horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but for me, I need to put a pin carefully in these 2 while moving along to the more familiar suspects



Still, caveat emptor.

Ted

[DanBoals]

Now that I have RDSS to compare, something that I deem crucial, I came up with the following win contenders and the itm contenders.

Fair warning, I am notoriously bad at the Derby, I do not remember a single year where I made money money on the race. Here's to hoping for a better future

BTW, I personally consider the ability to have secondary contenders and non contenders all on the screen with my contenders to be that best change to the software in the last 20 years. Kudos to Ted for giving us the option to move the horses into the different groups and see how that changes the look of the race. Thank you Ted.

Dan