Just follow the guidelines

[Lt1]

You are correct FTL. Since I prefer not to use a line where the horse is beaten by more than 71/2 line 2 is a good line to use. An oversight on my part. Still would be in top 2 ep and a bet.Thanks for your insight.

[Earl J]

FTL Great post!

I love reading every thing you post its very informative.

Thank you Earl J

[dlivery]

Thank-You for the early

Will not go into detail the result was the same

Winner

Lawrence

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Appy

Really enjoyed that post Bill! Did you dutch the 4/8?

Just a small win - place and show bet on the 4

The 8 was under 5/2. I have been betting just 1 horse in cases like this
because I was missing too many of my longer odds horses. because both
of my bets were not 5/2 or higher.

Bill

[dlivery]

You are quite the responder to the answers.

Well said keep up the good work.

Selecting the right pace line has improved my game.

Would hardly move on line selection unless there was reason.

Again for bringing the line selection condition selection to a new level.

Thank You

Lawrence

[For The Lead]

Ok, let's go to PARX for race 6. A field of 8 with no scratches. It's a 6f claiming race for 3 year olds and up with a claiming price of $16,000 and a NW2L condition.

Here's the rundown:

#1 - Last line. It is a "(+)" race since the horse was on the lead at the first two calls and faded down the stretch. The race was 27 days ago at DMR, a poly surface,, at today's distance. Yep, it got claimed out of its' lasat race for $8,000 and got shipped all the way across the country. Take not it has only had two races since it was off for 354 days. Also take note that it broke its' maiden for a claiming price of $20,000. When a horse breaks their maiden in a maiden claiming race, they are generally competitive at half of that price when moving into a claiming race. That makes the last race for $8,000 look pretty bad for this horse.
#2 - Last line. The last line was 27 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. It is a "+" race since the horse ran 2nd. Prior to the last race the horse had 5 route races.
#3 - Last line. The last line was 24 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. It ran 3rd making it a "+" race.
#4 - Last line. The last line was17 days ago at a similar distance and on the same surface. In the race the horse was fighting for and had the lead at the 1st call and was fighting for the lead at the 2nd call, making this a "(+)" race. The race was also at the same claiming price and condition as today's race.
#5 - Last line. In its' last race the horse broke its' maiden at a similar distance and on the same surface. Since today's condition is NW2L it is acceptable, by the guidelines, to use its' maiden win. Because the horse won the race, it is a "+" race.
#6 - NO LINE. The last race for this horse, 22 days ago, came after being off for 194 days. The last race was a route on the turf so it is unacceptable.
#7 - Last line. In its' last race the horse broke its' maiden at a similar distance and on the same surface. Since today's condition is NW2L it is acceptable, by the guidelines, to use its' maiden win. Because the horse won the race, it is a "+" race.
#8 - Line 2. The last line was on the turf, so we move down to line 2, which was 72 days ago and within the 90 day cutoff. In that race the horse broke its' maiden at a similar distance and on the same surface. Since the horse won the race, it is a "+" race.

Here is the field.

[For The Lead]

Here's the rest of the field.

[For The Lead]

Before I go on, take a look at every horse in the race and see how many have had EXTENDED periods of time away from the races. It was something that caught my eye. This leads me to believe many of these horses have physical problems. The #4 horse, however, has had 10 races in the last 174 days, approximately one race very 17 days. Horses with problems don't keep that kind of racing scedule. The #4 horse is a sound horse.

Ok, let's look at the screen shots.

Looking at the original screen, it appears this race is very much like the race I posted yesterday, that is to say, there appears there will be a lot of activity up front early. Let's see how it plays out.



In yesterday's race I mentioned that when there is a lot of early horses, that doesn't necessarily mean there will be a battle up front. If one early horse can dominate the others, the other early horses will fade and be of no consequence in the outcome of the race. We can see here on the TPR screen that the #4 is the fastest horse to the second call.



Moving on to the segments screen, we can also see that the #4 horse is much the fastest horse at the first call. This doesn't bode well for the other early types. Look at the computed beaten lengths at the first call.



Now we come to the BL/BL screen. It should be obvious that any horse that backs up through the stretch is not going to show well on the Bl/BL screen. This is because it will, in most cases, have the worst thrid fraction. But consider this...is the third fraction where early types win? No. They win in the early part of the race.



WHAT DO YOU KNOW? WE GOT LUCKY!!
But we already knew the #6 wasn't going to win. Right? Not unless it cheated. (lol) And it obviously DID...and got caught!!

Just remember this when you win a race and get taken down.

Although the race wasn't run cleanly, we can still learn from the lesson. We were able to identify who the best early horse was in todays match up. And although we caught a break, we were on the money in that respect.

Aside from winning a race, the best we can hope for as handicappers, is that we can determine how the race will play out and hope that we are correct more often than not.

[Blackrose]

Thanks for doing that race. I noticed you treated the 7f races as good sprint races for horses 2 an 5 even though the race was for 6f. Is this generally the case. I know 1 length plus or minus is the guideline. Oh I got the winner at MNR Race 5 using the guidelines only 2 horses had lines seemed too easy. Thanks for all your help!! The light is starting to come on. More like the switch went on.
Thanks Jim

[dirty moose]

Hey Blackrose. I think the furlong guideline is fine. Usually plus or minus is ok. One of the things (among many) I've learned from Bill V, LT and FTL is that not every distance is the same at every track. For example, 8F at Parx is a two turn race, while 8f at Belmont is only one. Another example (Bill's fav) the 7.5F at Parx is also two turns. (correct Bill?)
Just a little something to keep in mind. If you listen to these guys and have the patience for the game, you'll be a winner. Patience is the hard part for me

Goodluck!